I would say, Yes it is, a couple years ago Belviq was not approved for weight loss let having combo study completed and other indications moving forward with stellar results so far. The pipeline is even better and moving farward, we have world wide partner distribution signed and sealed.
Scripts up 30% last quarter and over 40% the quarter before that. Last quarter during a time with the whole industry was flat we grew 30% during the slow season for weight loss. You parents must be proud of you...
Arena and Eisai have not conducted any studies of Belviq for NASH and Craig Stated he did not know if the private study results were directly from Belviq or the weight loss ( or something like that). So they will have to look at it to determine if it is worth looking into that further.
Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or NASH is a common, often “silent” liver disease. It resembles alcoholic liver disease, but occurs in people who drink little or no alcohol. The major feature in NASH is fat in the liver, along with inflammation and damage. Most people with NASH feel well and are not aware that they have a liver problem. Nevertheless, NASH can be severe and can lead to cirrhosis, in which the liver is permanently damaged and scarred and no longer able to work properly.
NASH affects 2 to 5 percent of Americans. An additional 10 to 20 percent of Americans have fat in their liver, but no inflammation or liver damage, a condition called “fatty liver.” Although having fat in the liver is not normal, by itself it probably causes little harm or permanent damage. If fat is suspected based on blood test results or scans of the liver, this problem is called nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). If a liver biopsy is performed in this case, it will show that some people have NASH while others have simple fatty liver.
I am sure you know the answer to that and it is yes. But now you answer this, with losing weight being just a matter of diet and exercise is obesity higher or lower over the last 20 years?
Obesity is the problem and losing weight is an even bigger problem...
Insiders do buy shares in the form of options and they have plenty of those... Telling someone to stay away because insiders are not buying is bad advice. Plenty of stocks out there where insiders buy at the wrong time and sell at the wrong time. They have no more insight then you right now, they are moving the pipeline forward and waiting for Eisai to increase market penetration.
We grew scripts 40%and 30% during the slow season while the market barely budged. So if we continue to match that growth in 1st and 2nd quarter next year during the weight loss season, what will the forward cash burn look like? Also where will the pipeline be? Will we have new partners lined up? Will we have milestone payments made? Will we be close enough to break even to warrant putting out a preferred issue or a bond ?
We are on the same page and we talked about that yesterday. Craig believes they have enough money and options to continue their current path. So I guess I have to believe he has access to better information.
Be patient, Belviq will get world wide approval as a smoking drug where the risk/benefit is overwhelmingly positive. Go look at the chantix forecasts and market potential that Pfizer has pushed for years. Once approved for smoking it will get scripted for weight loss.
This appears to be the strategy for getting Belviq approved in EU and others.
While this is true it has nothing to do with the original post. Management was very clear that they were ramping up research budget to move pipeline forward., so no surprises there.
First, I have not seen over exuberance for a year. Second, Stock price clearly is not in line with norms and we have been manipulated for some time so you can't read anything into that, IMHO.
I am underwater, and have been very upfront about it. But I have purchases under 2 bucks that make it easier to look at. Ignore the noise, one day you will wake up to find Arena trading over 5 billion market cap if the science proves to be revolutionary.
You have not been fooled in any way. Belviq works, Eisai spent millions just for the right to sell it, they continue to spend millions spreading the news to doctors about this amazing drug. Everyone underestimated how resistant the market was to weight loss drugs, many in here, on Wall Street and at both companies. 60,000 doctors have tried the drug on at least one of their patients, 70% insurance coverage as of October.
Be patient if are really long and if you are short, enjoy what time you have left.
A long is a long because they have a positive thesis on the company. Yes they will tell you their reasoning with a bias but that is to be expected. They believe enough in the thesis to put their hard earned money into this investment. If you are invested in Arena you better have a strong understanding of why, and you better monitor to make sure they why is still in play. You should not be investing because someone you know or read says hey buy, we are going to pop by November. Go to the web, Facebook, drugs dot c0m belviqsuccess, you will find thousands of comments and feedback. The drug works.
Belviq is not running the company into bankruptcy it is actually producing cash flow. Cash flow that is growing quarter over quarter....
Eisai marketing requirement is best efforts, how do you enforce that? The committee is controlled by no one it is split up 50/50 with Arena folks and Eisai folks.
So yest they do have some input but no say.
40 million short shares would love to be able to buy up the offering without diving the prices higher by going to the markets.... I believe Baba is correct any kind of offering would be over subscribed but we have a few more options and a lot of time left before that decision has to be made if it will ever have to be made. But I am sure they have a plan B, C, and D.