They are getting destroyed within an hour of opening after an FDA approval. I am sure many investors over there are getting blind sided.. The market is not what it used to be, to much gaming of the system now a days.
Orex is not marketing the drug, if you were paying attention you would know that. Go back and do some more DD before you post here.
Only 6 trades went through totaling 3,450 shares to drop it from the 3.98 price. I am not to worried. Contrave will be fighting a major battle to get insurance coverage as a generic for both private and public insurance plans. Doctors will still be resistant to script that drug as well. It is nothing new and has been on the market for many years and has been scripted already as a generic.
Yet they will pump that one up just like they did VVUS and ignore the new and novel drug that has patent protection for the next 11 years and additional indications on the way.
Last year when we went into the holidays we saw scripts flatten and in some cases drop. I am expecting the same thing. We have a large enough base on the drug now that we might not see the drop like last year but I am expecting a move up into November and a stalling period until the new year.
You are correct about one thing in this statement, Eisai did not really do a relaunch as was stated on their CC. They coordinated a big push timed with their 200 new reps. But you can't say it has done nothing. While the obesity drugs have been going down due to seasonality, Belviq has been growing steadily increasing their market share.
An employee came up to me yesterday and said, " do you remember that drug you were talking about a while back, I saw the commercial last night and I am going to go to the doctor and get an prescription this week and try it" Funny thing, when I talked about it she was like cool did nothing, but after seeing the commercial she is going to try it.
He still had high hopes for the stock at that price and at 6-7 bucks his thesis was in tact. Today being down almost 50% and no serious engagement from the company he has lost hope and the pain has become to great.
The market is not rewarding Arena for Belviq's slow and steady script growth, or the recently completed Bel Phen study event, or the Belviq for smoking currently running and completion due by the end of the year. Totally ignoring any great potential of the pipeline, even the awarding of Orphan status fell on deaf and hate filled ears.
words like possible, may, could could be used in every situation. It is a new and novel drug and they don't know what the future holds when a large part of the population starts taking a new and novel drug. We have a long study with 8000 patients on the drug but that is not enough to make a statement. That is why we have the 5 year MACE study, to follow a large sampling of patients for a very long time to make sure nothing shows up that was not accounted for in the Phase I, II and II studies.
They are not saying it causes these things, they are saying they don't know if those things will show up after years of use. They don't know and that is why we have safe harbor statements and disclosures.
Not rejected over heart issues. They did not like the non clinical study data. The procedures and the results from those non clinical studies were custom designed for the FDA to deal with their concerns. The EU and Swiss medic did not agree with the study and found it lacking.
Wellington is the largest shareholder and I can assure you they are not saying anything. I contacted them long ago to try and get a little activist and apply pressure to the BOD and Arena management. They stated they were not activist investors and are not interested in that activity at all. I went after a few of the top holders to see if they would support shareholders in putting pressure on Arena management with a couple shareholder initiatives. They passed.
Still waiting for GALE to drop to a buck, ;-) and can't believe we are sitting here at 4 bucks.
That is more then double the actual growth rate we have seen averaged over the 13 months it has been on the market. What exactly do you see happening that will double the growth rate?
I would not really call it right, I would say the market manipulators were given their price target and the excuse to take it that low. A low price thrown out and then taking it there is much easier.