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Columbia Sportswear Company Message Board

luke_sky_walk_er 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 9:50 PM Member since: Feb 14, 2001
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  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 17, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    59, ok fine, I will forget about the fact that you need to have a demand forecast to calculate capacity.

    One thing is certain, we don't want to #$%$ off PepsiCo in the very beginning by not meeting their product plan. Why did we not read in the last quarterly report that "we will be purchasing additional tooling to meet PepsiCo demand"?? We had to know that once Pepsi started ramping up this could be an issue.

    So, I guess we'll see that new tooling statement in the annual report, right?!

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 17, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    Guys.... this isn't adding up. Sure, simple math shows 6 million x 3 = 18 million. What really is this number? This doesn't tell me the demand forecast. And what is this 25 million mold capacity mean? Is this an annual run rate of 3 shifts full 24x7?

    I like the thought, but we need a few more numbers to understand how to see a bottle neck!! :-)

  • Reply to

    Pepsi and Coke selection equipment

    by sophia3jan Dec 12, 2014 11:53 AM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 17, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    59,
    What about the bulk side. In your opinion, do you see anything on the bulk side getting developed for something like Shanghai Disney? Or was the Disney contract merely a distraction that delayed PepsiCo and they are focused purely on 10 liter pouch?

  • Reply to

    Pepsi and Coke selection equipment

    by sophia3jan Dec 12, 2014 11:53 AM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 16, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    I agree with this Pie. It's going to get interesting in a hurry because I can see a fair amount of value in the EMEA region for the 1 gallon pouch. The key factor is the value of no refrigeration required. Maybe 59 has a guess into the assumptions where Pepsi would focus first.... bulk aseptic or stuff using the 1 gallon pouch. Or both.

    59? What do you believe is the initial focus for Pepsi, bulk, 1 gallon pouch, or both? We're all simply guessing what we think.... so the more the merrier. :-)

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 11, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Sophia,
    Please don't make that your last post. We would be bored without you. I promise to be more kind if you stick around and continue to keep us grounded. :-)

    For the record.... I only mentioned 4 years because that it what Jack said he's good with. And 59 is the one that mentioned $30 bucks. I simply pulled the two numbers together a created a scenario. Sheeesh!

    Now GA in his 60's..... all I can say is my wonderful mother turned 83 and she's playing golf 3 times a week and is sharp as a tack. T. Boone Pickens is attempting to concur with world with natural gas.... incorporating Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) and he's 86. I feel bad if your health is being succumbed; but I don't think GA will all the sudden decide his age is keeping him from driving this train.

    Instead of saying $30, lets stick to the plan..... deliver cash flow positive, increasing orders over time, and move this train over to the Nasdaq. Once we're on the Nasdaq, a true intrinsic value will be applied. Sitting and complaining while we're trading OTC with only 110 shareholders is fruitless. Also, selling before we make it back to the Nasdaq is also a mistake.

    Have a nice day,
    ~ Luke

  • luke_sky_walk_er by luke_sky_walk_er Dec 11, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    1/2 million shares trade in pre-market. Hold on to your hats!!

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 10, 2014 10:03 PM Flag

    4 years..... how close do you think we'll be to $30? That would make IDC a $2.4B company !! Probably ready to strike a deal with Tetra Pak by then I'd suppose.

    I'm not to worried either. Remember the new saying goes.... "Luke is on the right track. Time is the only factor". :-)

    May YOU be with the FORCE,
    ~ Luke

  • luke_sky_walk_er by luke_sky_walk_er Dec 9, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    With 27% shares short..... the upgrades will begin to apply pressure on shorts and will give us additional upside movement. Looks like the stars are starting to line up again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • luke_sky_walk_er by luke_sky_walk_er Dec 8, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    "Health and wellness was fashionable to talk about three to five years ago and today has become very mainstream," Nooyi said. Consumers' idea of "health and wellness" over that time period has also evolved from a focus on diet drinks and foods to natural ingredients and exercise, she said.

    Nooyi said the company is investing more than ever on "big bets" to keep up with changing consumer tastes. "We are rolling the dice on a lot of new ideas right now," she said, while noting that the company is being careful not to take "foolish risks" or "ride on a single fad."

    Dairy is one area where the company is experimenting right now, she said.

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 8, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    Nope, sorry Sophia.... it's one and the same, "The" promised land. As promised by the one Holy Catholic and Apostolic Church. You can trust there's a simple recipe to follow that includes 10 commandments and 7 sacraments that point to what is sacred. Not everyone follows the recipe. We can only hope and pray those old time IDC investors are in the promised land.

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 8, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    59 that is kind of like a "duh" statement. You said yourself you're expecting Dec/Jan orders to support an early to mid 2015 product launch. With orders comes revenue. Time is the factor in all of life. Every minute that ticks by gets us one minute closer to the promised land.

    So..... do you think that GA will provide another Christmas letter? Maybe that will get everyone's spirits up and on the right track while we watch the paint dry for another quarter.

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 4, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    Good idea. Let's wait and see how 59 and others feel. I'm tired of typing useful information just so you can turn around and call it "here say". Sheeesh.

    59, Pie, Jack?

    Sorry, no force for you Sophia,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 4, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Sophia, you don't need to be an insider to understand the product development life cycle and business plan of one of the largest CPG's on the planet, PepsiCo. A good example of this, which you cannot deny, is the plan behind the Sunkist protein shots. That was Protica's only goal. That is what they do. Protica makes protein drinks. They designed the product they wanted and "poof" they launched it. If Pepsi's goal is simply to spit out a "one of a kind product" like Protica I would call for mutiny. If you cannot bring yourself to the realization that PepsiCo has bigger plans for growth in the AMEA region then I'm wasting my breath.

    Next...... you also don't need to be an insider to understand the packaging industry is a heavily capitalized segment of the food and beverage supply chain. Without a product plan, what is the benefit and incentive to spend $$ retrofitting filling equipment to leverage The Answer. Then you compound this fact by the speed of the filling equipment vs. the cost of this new unique applicatio. Now we have The Green Machine.

    Stack all that up on top of the barriers and constraints of setting up business in China.

    When you boil all this down into the simplest form..... We have the 1 gallon stand-up pouch. We have the Cold Star application. And we have the BIB and those silly looking cans you see in the quarterly report. Line these up against The Green Machine in Tingy Chinai and ask....... what are we waiting for???? Oh ya.... we need some PepsiCo product to produce. Lots and lots of products. For PepsiCo.... you can trust they need a few more ideas beyond a 1 gallon protein shot to get started doing business in China. :-)

    We're fully funded until June 2015. Only you can decide if it's worth watching the paint dry for another quarter or two.

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 3, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Children, children, please stop fighting. :-) Or maybe not..... since we're back to watching the paint dry for another quarter you two are cheap entertainment.

    Welcome to the crotchety bitter old women and spoiled young man show.... Staring.... (drum roll please) SOPHIA and her famous HAIR PIE....... hahahahahahah!! I crack myself up!

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 2, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    I glad someone else mentioned that one Pie. I'm sure ya'll are getting tired of reading Captain Kirk posts all the time ;-)

    There is no doubt the biggest issue is simply kicking the can down the road another quarter. We are at the mercy of the speed of a $150 Billion CPG company. Everything they do is big, global giant, multi-national, sized. The good thing is when they go, they go big. As they're ramping up, this will quickly grow exponentially.

    59 is on to something too. We are going to quickly go from waiting to launch to worrying about capacity to fulfill orders. Anyway, you nailed it Pie.... bouncing around between .30 and .40 is nothing new.

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    3rd Quarter Report

    by oneinvestor59 Nov 26, 2014 1:23 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Dec 1, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    59,
    I found a couple of interesting nugget in the 3rd quarter report that I'm not sure if Jack mentioned in his good, bad and ugly post. First, I thought it was interesting they took the time to mention a "global giant" (which we cannot name) has strong interest in moving two substantial pieces of business to the rotary filler machine and The Answer. Then further in the report we read a major multinational (which we cannot name) is moving toward a launch of tea and soy products with The Answer in 2015. Do you think these two separate references to a company we cannot name are one and the same?

    Secondly, It also makes sense for Pepsi to plan a launch in early to mid-2015 they would be ordering The Answer right now. They will need a minimum of 3-6 months of product in the supply chain to support even a minor launch. This is supported by the new going concern statement that says we have sufficient capital for continued operations through June 30, 2015. The balance sheet says $77k cash, and we also have some loans floating around that makes it harder to map. But either way, Pepsi shipments in Dec/Jan at net30 terms has to generate a cash flow positive 1Q15.

    Let me know your thoughts and connect the dots on these two observations.

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    Report Publish Date Consistency

    by luke_sky_walk_er Nov 17, 2014 9:59 AM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Nov 25, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Jack,
    Did you watch the tape very closely? This was the strangest phenomena I've seen on this tape in quite a while. We literally traded every 5 minute mark between 2:30 and 3:15. It was like a computer executed some systematic order/pattern.

    At 2:30 500 shares traded at .26. It was like the start of someone shaking a wall nut tree full of 30 cent nuts. Then every 5 minutes between 2:35 and 3:15 orders ranging from 5,000 to 32,000 went off below .30. Then when the last trade went off at .32... poof, it stopped. Until 5 minutes before the close. At 3:55, the remaining 13,500 shares at .32 where also taken out.

    I believe someone "in the know" shook the tree one last time before the news gets out.

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    Report Publish Date Consistency

    by luke_sky_walk_er Nov 17, 2014 9:59 AM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Nov 25, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Sophia,
    I believe that you have now been dubbed by oneinvestor59.... negative Nancy! I also believe if you truly wanted to sell large blocks of IDC stock they would be long gone at .39. If you truly wanted to get out, why are you splitting pennies? We no longer believe you're trying to sell right now. Eat turkey, drink red wine, take a valium, and wait for the quarterly report and press releases like the rest of us.

  • luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Nov 21, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    They are also outsmarting Coke by developing new products in AMEA using The Answer tap from International Dispensing (IDND). The PepsiCo China project with Tingyi has launched. And PepsiCo adopting The Answer tap from IDND is a catalyst for new growth. The news release is due out soon that shows revenue and target projections PepsiCo has using The Answer tap from IDND.

    It's also know that KO India is also pursing new product using The Answer. It would be in PepsiCo's best interest to start moving faster in the AMEA region with new product or they will quickly be chasing KO once again. First market mover is a strategic advantage. And The Answer from International Dispensing is the secret weapon.

    AMEA using The Answer from IDND will move the stock higher. Fizzy soda water and salty snacks won't cut it globally. PEP needs a new answer and they have The Answer. God speed, it's time to make some money over KO.

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

  • Reply to

    Good News, The Paint is Dry!

    by hair_pie_face May 16, 2014 3:04 PM
    luke_sky_walk_er luke_sky_walk_er Nov 20, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Well said Jack! Its interesting to watch Level 2.... there's 50k available at .40. Every time it resurfaces, the MM slips another 2500 on the tape at .39. I guess this goes to show I need to take your advice and forget about this stock for a while. And don't forget.... (Sophia will say) let us hope that glowing ball in the future, isn't a freight train steaming straight for us ;-)

    May the force be with you,
    ~ Luke

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