NRF has a substantial investment in Europe, both in office buildings and in Health Care facilities, with plans on increasing their investment in the European economy and, IMO, they will "spin-off" at least their European office building investment in the not-to-distant future. NRF's European investment is significant, and It was my belief, (apparently an incorrect belief), that the participants on the NRF message board would be well aware of the relationship between the European economy and NRF and that is why I posted the link to the article on the NRF message board. In all honesty, I am surprised at the umbrage you have taken with the posting of the above article for which I am sorry, but I do believe that the article is germane to NRF and beneficial to most of the readers of this MB.
The article by Jeff Miller was intended to address and at least in some degree dispel the many "worries" that we hear about daily/weekly.
While the term "smarty pants" is usually used in a derogatory sense, as you have used it in replying to Dar200, it is, in this case, a fairly accurate description of dar intelligence. But, not only is Dar smart, he is also timely in his analysis, (he has been telling this MB about NRF spin-off since at least December of 2013, some 15 months ago). He is not only accurate and timely in his analysis, but has unselfishly shared that analysis with this board which has resulted in many, like myself, profiting far beyond our dreams by following his recommendations. As for intelligent life on the NRF message board, yes, there is plenty with Dar being foremost. Finally, to suggest that there is a question as to the intellectual level of this MB, you apparently have either failed to read the many well thought out and well articulated posts that have been made or you are incapable of doing so. 5 years is plenty of time to figure out a MB.
... let me post the link to a article by Calculated Risk saying that Hotels are having their best year ever. With increasing occupancy and increasing room rates, revenue per available REV PAR is up 10% over last year.
A Dash of Insight by Jeff Miller
The "Wall of Worry", (promoted and often created by the financial media), facing investors today include:
1. Profit margins too high and will revert to mean values;
2. Stocks are over-valued by “any” of the measures
3. Recession fears – deflation
4. Inflation fears
5. Too long since last correction – market timing
6. This year is just like… (insert your favorite contrived two-variable chart)
7. End of QE
8. Collapse in Europe/China/Emerging Markets
Jeff Miller does a great job of putting these various "worries" in perspective and in context resulting in not only a better understanding of the issues causing the various "worries", resulting, IMO, in a greatly reduced degree of worry. I find it very useful to remember that the media, especially the financial media is not in the business of reporting the news but in the business of selling advertising, (making money), which the do by attracting, viewers, listeners, and/or readers. That is why there will always be a new fear, another worry, or a imminent crisis to report and to talk about. Fear and worry sell. While the current recovery is the weakest on record, it is still occurring and businesses as a whole are continuing to increase profits, hire people and adapt to the current environment.
NRF and NSAM are, IMO, positioned well to not only participate in the continued recovery, (in both the US and in Europe), but to also do well as interest rates begin to normalize, (which will be the natural result on a healthier economy and business environment).
I will have a better Idea as to tax issues, if any, in the next few weeks once we get a couple of K-1's that are always mailed at the last moment. So far, neither our tax attorney, (who we have checked with a couple of months ago), nor our CPA, (who will be giving us the actual numbers), has indicated any concerns about what we have been doing for the past 30 years. This past year we finished selling a major investment in California R/E, (I hate doing any kind of business in California), and so if there are any issues, they should be fully resolved in the next couple of months. Thanks for following up on this issue.
As for the combined price of NRF and NSAM, I have no doubt that your $100 combined value will, if anything, conservative. When the combined price gets to $100, it will be a good time to take a trip to RI and take you and your wife out to dinner. However, lets do it in the Spring/Summer/Fall. I don't think that we could handle one of your winters if it is like this year's
Take care and again, thanks
raise to .41/share in May, (a $1.64 annual dividend), a person would receive a 9% yield if they bought at $18.22. The current price is 18.24 which makes buying more very tempting.
Should the dividend be during the year to a $1.66 annual dividend, (which is, IMO, probable), then a pps of $18.44 would result in a 9% yield which is better than the average return of the S&P. Add to this the price appreciation which is virtually certain as a result of being classified as a equity REIT and as a result of one or more "spin-offs" over the next few years and even my wife approves of increasing an already bloated position at today's prices.
The SA article makes some assumptions that I don't think are necessarily correct concerning increasing interest rates. The main one is that increasing rates = decreasing cash flow. First, one needs to be a little more specific as to what rates are increasing. If it is short term rates, then initially the effect will be, IMO, little impact on the cash flow because properties are purchased using longer term funds (5 -10 year) If the author is speaking about all rates increasing, then the above still holds true but with the benefit of having reduced new building resulting in existing properties having less competition from new properties leaving them able to increase rates as the economy improves. In other words, an increasing interest rate environment will, IMO have little negative impact on the performance of existing properties and if the cause of interest rates increasing is a growing economy, (as would be the case in the US), existing real estate should do well. It is new construction, IMO, that is most affected by rising rates, not existing properties.
As for NRF, I am in it for the long term because in real estate, IMO, the ones who make the most money are the either the very short term buyers and sellers, "flippers", or the long-term investors.
I think that the economy will continue to recover, and this recovery will be reflected in higher interest rates. However, I also believe that this same recovery will benefit equity REITs much more than the rising interest rates will negatively impact those REITs, at least for the next 5-10 years.
Wishing you the best
Thanks for the comment.
IMO, Information is not only fun but beneficial to have; and whether positive or negative and whether I agree or not. The key work is informationHowever, noise, (messages that lack any kind of thought or substance,) is, IMO, not only a waste of time to read but serves no useful purpose other than calling attention to the poster. Give reason, provide logic, contribute meaningfully to the discussion. The posters I am speaking of, like Magpies, take without contributing, they create noise and confusion but never give a reason or an argument to support their posts, and after they have had their attention, they fly away leaving white droppings for someone else to clean up.
Wishing you the best
I have been intrigued by some posters, to this and other message boards, who consistently post meaningful, substantive posts and by other posters who seemingly post only meaningless noise. The substantive posters contribute to the board and we are all better off because of their thoughtful, meaningful posts. The posters of noise however, share nothing of substance or of though. They seem to have a need for attention and so their posts are often emotional or alarming in nature, and always without any support or reasons for the post(s) being given. Much like Magpies, they create a lot of noise and create an atmosphere of confusion, alarm and self attention. The problem with such posters, just like Magpie, they tend to not only want to make a lot of noise in order to call attention to themselves, but they also have a negative impact on contributors who have meaningful contributions to be made. They mess up the MB. Therefore, I would urge others on this MB to freely use the "ignore" button for such posters and hopefully they will fly away to some other MB for their needed attention. By doing so, hopefully this message board will not only elevate the level of the contributions made, but will also encourage more serious investors/traders to participate through meaningful and thoughtful posts.
and your basis for your conclusion that "Nrf is the sequel to arcp" is....?
If we are to take you seriously, then we need to know the basis of you statement.
What is the basis of your 17.50 price prediction? I am sure many would appreciate you sharing it with us.
today was 0.66
NorthStar Realty Finance - Market Recap
Posted on 03/06/2015 by Peter Mankowitz
During the last trading session, a new 90-day call record for traded contracts was established. There were 1.5 calls traded for every put contract yielding a 0.66 put/call ratio.
Put/Call ratio is often used to measure investment sentiment, the ratio serves as a predictor of investor behavior. Unusual options volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move. (see below)
Shares of NorthStar Realty Finance declined $0.36 (1.95%) to $18.09 in today's trading session. The price of NRF ranged between $18.03 - $18.50. Volume is 11.43M in relation to the three month average volume of 6.81M shares. The technical momentum Relative Strength Index indicator shows oversold conditions. NRF is trading above the fifty day moving average and higher than the two hundred day moving average. The stock's 52 week low is $15.95 and 52 week high is $35.86. Performance indicators show that the stock has gained 5.37% within the last quarter."
DEFINITION OF 'PUT-CALL RATIO'
A ratio of the trading volume of put options to call options. The put-call ratio has long been viewed as an indicator of investor sentiment in the markets. Times where the number of traded call options outpaces the number of traded put options would signal a bullish sentiment, and vice versa.
Technical traders have used the put call ratio for years as an indicator of the market. Most importantly, changes or swings in the ratio are seen as instances of great importance as this is commonly viewed as a change in the tide of overall market sentiment.
It would appear that NRF is over sold with a 0.66 Put to call ratio and we could expect a bounce in the next few days. Of course, I expect a bounce because Dar has a dinner trade riding in the works and he is seldom wrong when it comes to a dinner trade.
Here is a recommendation restated by Deutsche Bank that was posted on the IV message board today...
"Re: Deutsche Bank- the common thesis
NSAM and NRF are top two picks; Reiterate Buy
The last week has been busy for NRF, as the company announced its intention
to spin NorthStar Realty Europe (NRE), reported in line 4Q results, and priced a
secondary that could generate net proceeds of up to $1.25 billion if the entire
forward sale agreement and the shoe are exercised. We believe the spin of
NRE is the first of likely a handful of steps to unlock value for NRF
shareholders. Given potential future spins of other assets (healthcare, hotels,
manufactured housing, and/or mortgage assets), our expectation of inclusion
in the RMZ on May 12, and the attractive valuation relative to our target of
$22.50 per share, we are reiterating our Buy rating on NRF."