I was reading a reply I made to you on another thread and it was not worded very nicely so I wanted to appologize and tell you that I appreciate what you have to say and especially your questions both on this MB and on AI's
Wishing you well
Here is a SA article by David White that gives a much better picture of what NYMT is today that I could.
IMO, NYMT will be a profitable investment but I doubt that it will have any effect on my health, (although I do sleep well at night owning it), nor do I think that it will by itself make me wealthy, (but it will help). As for making me wise, I hope not. It seems that with wisdom there is often a certain amount of "pain" involved and most of my wisdom has come be mistakes I have made.
Wishing you well
Since Nov. 25 PSEC has dropped 3.65% in pps while the S&P has dropped 1.25%. Yes, that is a big drop however, especially when compared to the S&P. However, to ascribe the drop to company officers "pumping", IMO, is not only unfair, but entirely misses what has been happening. First of all, every BDC I follow has experience a significant "sell-off" this week so PSEC is not alone in price weakness. Second, the 10 yr treasury yield has increased 5.16% which is huge for treasuries. I would suggest, as I have done before, that the sell-off in BDCs is directly related to the rapid sell-off in treasuries. While this explanation has not been well received by some on this MS, I would suggest that it is much more plausible than any other explanation that has so far been put forward. I would suggest that the sell-off in treasuries is a case of good news being bad new, ie; because we have good economic news the FED is more likely to "taper" sooner which the market views as bad and is not warranted, especially in the long-run. Likewise, I would suggest that the current sell-off in PSEC is not warranted and that PSEC pps will recover just fine. Finally, I would reemphasize my belief that management has certainly not been "pumping" the stock "before their meeting", whatever meeting it is that you are referring to, nor will the price recover because of any "pumping" on their part.
The sell-off today had nothing to do with Zacks. Interest rates, (especially the 10 year rates) spiked today, (up over 2%), and so virtually all mREITs and BDCs that I follow had significant selling pressure. (In this case, AI is looked at virtually the same as mREITs although it technically isn't one). What caused the sell-of in treasuries? There were a number of factors including large out flows from bond funds and also a "glich" that cause the treasury to postpone the auction of 7 year notes. Interest rates are moving higher and the market is expecting them to do so. It was the steepness of the increase in interest rates that spooked the market today. As for AI, they are hedged on their Agency portfolio and so while the stock price drop was significant, it will recover.
Wishing you the best;
It is a direct result of a significant spike in interest rates, especially in the 10 year rates which resulted in a significant sell-of of BDCs. Not to panic though, this is just part of adjusting back to "normal".
To compare 2005 with 2013 is hardly a fair, objective, or meaningful comparison. What matters is what the company is today.
A short history for AI:
9 Sept., "strong sell"- Closing price 24.75
28 Oct. AI's earning report- Closing price 25.21
26 Nov. "sell"-Closing price 26.60
29 Nov. - Closing price 26.71
Is there a pattern here? I think so; AI is moving up based on their earnings regardless of what ZACK says. How high? I believe that the price will be approaching BV sometime in the next two months. My rating: still a solid "Buy".
Zacks has a strong "sell" rating and Thomson Reuters has their highest "buy" rating. Who do you believe?
This is why it is important to not only look at the numbers, but understand the company and get to know the management. When a person goes beyond the recommendations of analysts and learn to rely upon their own DD they start to become an investor rather than a gambler/follower. As for AI, I would suggest looking at "core" earnings, BV, distribution coverage, and tax advantages. As you do so, you will know whether to follow Zacks and sell or Thomson Reuters and buy. One last thought, Zacks "sell" rating was given when AI was more than 5% lower than its current price.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just a short quote from today's CC which has direct bearing on NMM
"...there is a slowing trend in fleet growth along with significant additional iron ore export capacities in both Brazil and Australia should support rates, especially in the Capesize sector. Both the Panamax and Supramax sectors should benefit over the medium to long-term by Chinese coal and grain imports. A further slowdown in deliveries combined with a gradual recovery in the world economy should bode well for improving fundamentals in 2014 and beyond."
The reason Soros has been buying dividend paying dry bulk carriers is summed up in the following formula: shrinking fleet size + increasing rates + fewer new ships = greater profits/distributions.
$0.24 AFFO. I don't know how soon we'll see $7.00 but I think in a couple of weeks we'll be closer to $7 than to $6.
Wishing you the best
Yes, if "core" earnings come in at $0.24 or more, I could see RSO starting to climb towards the upper $6.00 range. However, that would mean at least a $0.08 per share increase, or 50% above last quarter's "core" earnings of $.16 per share which I would think is highly unlikely. Therefore, I would be very interested in why you think the price will be increasing up to $7.00 per share. Don't take me wrong, I hope you are right. However, I have found it risky to invest based on "hope" and so I am asking you to share the basis of your optimism.
Thank you in advance.
Terrific gains the last couple of days. Is it all due to the recent Quarterly Report and Conference Call or is there more going on? Here are two SA articles that investors in NMM and other shipping companies may find particularly interesting. The first article, written October 30, is mostly about Dry Bulk shipping while the second article, written Nov. 4, is more particularly about NMM.
I found both articles most interesting and informative and hope you do too.
I saw this interview by Rick Santalli on CNBC this morning. Eugene Fama was one of this year's Nobel Prize winners and is a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, the home of "free market" capitalism. I was really surprised what Professor Fama had to say about Quanative Easing and its effects on interest rates, especially short term rates and also what he said concerning what the end of QE means. I would like to hear your ideas. Here is the link:
Note: Dr. Fama said that what the Fed has been doing (lowering long term rates) should have put upward pressure on short term rates but they, short term rates decreased. He also said that the end of QE should be a non-event. It should not have any material impact on the economy. I'm still scratching my head about what was said and will need to give it some thought but I also wanted to hear your "take" on what was said.
Have a good time on you vacation/trip.
It appears to me to be a sector wide happening with very little differentiation between individual companies. The price will recover but what is more important to me is that "core" earnings at $1.03 indicate that the dividend will be maintained.
"This too will pass"
Wishing you the best
I think that whatever guidance that may have been given was done by explaining 1) the "Agency" portfolio is virtually fully hedged and that hedge can be maintained essentially indefinitely; 2) the "Private Label" portfolio is doing better than expected and that as it matures it will provide a significant gain over the next couple of years; 3) the portfilo will migrate from 64% in "Private Label" to more Agency since opportunities there are greater and investments in "Agency" can be protected by hedging.
As I see it, the major problem with investing in "Agency" mortgages is leverage. AI continues to be modestly levered and is using hedges to help mitigate interest rate risks. With "core" earnings at $1.03 distributions are adequately covered and, IMO, when all is said and done, earnings are the best forward guidance there is.
Wishing you the best
I have also been buying today. I find that I usually am sorry soon after buying or selling but am usually happy in a few days or a week. I think it will be like that with my purchases today. Fundamentals will over emotions in the longer term.
The market really does have a mind of its own and I admit I have never understood it. That is why I find I do terribly at trying to "time" the market but rather try and find stocks that I feel will preform well over the longer-term. Also, I keep reminding myself that as long as dividends can be maintained, that I shouldn't worry about what the price is doing. Easily said, harder to do.
Wishing you the best