There are several investor rights law firms trying to find grounds on which they can file a law suit against Nicholas' Board for failing in their fiduciary duty to stockholders in regards to the purchase of Nicholas by PSEC. At the end of the day I suspect the deal will get done, (it appears to be beneficial for all parties), but it is getting from here to there that will be interesting and we may also see some interesting price volatility in the meantime.
I have had someone impersonate me a number of times, on this board and on others. The only thing that seems to work is once the troll is identified, I put it on ignore and that seems to work for a time.
Wishing you the best
For what it is worth...
Short interest has been increasing quite significantly the last three days. Today almost a third of the the trades for AI were short sales, down a little from yesterday and up from Tuesday. The last three days has seen the highest short selling volume in the past month. I suspect that is part of the reason for the sell-off.
There seems to be a monthly pattern of short sales where volume picks up during the second/third weeks.
Great time in Florida for me and I hope you enjoyed your vacation as well.
Yes, there are still a number of problems out there, but there are some good things happening as well. I was encouraged by a couple of SA articles this last week that point out some of the positive things that have been happening and that have been somewhat overlooked by most, me included. Here is the link:
As for AI, I view it still fundamentally the same as I have for the last several months:
1. Selling well below BV
2. Adequately covering their dividends from their "core" earnings.
3. Adequately hedged
4. Diversified between Agency and Private Label mortgages
5. A 13% plus yield
The problem is, as you well know, since it is fairly thinly traded, it doesn't take much to move the stock price which is what IMO has happened the past couple of days. I have a sneaky hunch that there may have been some short selling involved.
Anyway, great to hear from you and I hope all is well;
Wishing you the best
I feel AI is adequately hedged for increasing interest rates and while I would like to see the price continue to increase, the periodic sell-off is healthy. When I see selling on large volume then my concern level starts to increase. I haven't seen that so far and so I am looking at the weakness in the past two days as temporary, caused more by the general market than anything particular.
I would suggest that the difference is management. RAS got new management and has been making things happen, NRF has the same management and has been making things happen. RSO, however, almost seems content to set back and hope something happens. Opportunities are there, its a matter of taking advantage of them. ruby has the right idea, wait for a couple of more quarters and then if things aren't happening, move on.
During the CC call today management explained specifically how they expected the spin-off to unlock value that was not being recognized with the current organizational structure. They also addressed a question concerning dividends of the new company.
The secondary is a brilliant move and the timing couldn't be better. It will be hugely accreative to BV and the money will quickly be put to good use. It is through secondaries that REITs grow and as NRF grows so does it profits including CAD.
I think it was more a reaction to the over-all market, (including another "spike" in the 10 year rates), that for some reason keeps keeps getting spooked with "taper" talk. You would think that after seven months, the markets would be ready to take the FED tapering in stride. I really don't see this as anything more that a very short term reaction by the market.
Wishing you the best.
I was reading a reply I made to you on another thread and it was not worded very nicely so I wanted to appologize and tell you that I appreciate what you have to say and especially your questions both on this MB and on AI's
Wishing you well
Here is a SA article by David White that gives a much better picture of what NYMT is today that I could.
IMO, NYMT will be a profitable investment but I doubt that it will have any effect on my health, (although I do sleep well at night owning it), nor do I think that it will by itself make me wealthy, (but it will help). As for making me wise, I hope not. It seems that with wisdom there is often a certain amount of "pain" involved and most of my wisdom has come be mistakes I have made.
Wishing you well
Since Nov. 25 PSEC has dropped 3.65% in pps while the S&P has dropped 1.25%. Yes, that is a big drop however, especially when compared to the S&P. However, to ascribe the drop to company officers "pumping", IMO, is not only unfair, but entirely misses what has been happening. First of all, every BDC I follow has experience a significant "sell-off" this week so PSEC is not alone in price weakness. Second, the 10 yr treasury yield has increased 5.16% which is huge for treasuries. I would suggest, as I have done before, that the sell-off in BDCs is directly related to the rapid sell-off in treasuries. While this explanation has not been well received by some on this MS, I would suggest that it is much more plausible than any other explanation that has so far been put forward. I would suggest that the sell-off in treasuries is a case of good news being bad new, ie; because we have good economic news the FED is more likely to "taper" sooner which the market views as bad and is not warranted, especially in the long-run. Likewise, I would suggest that the current sell-off in PSEC is not warranted and that PSEC pps will recover just fine. Finally, I would reemphasize my belief that management has certainly not been "pumping" the stock "before their meeting", whatever meeting it is that you are referring to, nor will the price recover because of any "pumping" on their part.
The sell-off today had nothing to do with Zacks. Interest rates, (especially the 10 year rates) spiked today, (up over 2%), and so virtually all mREITs and BDCs that I follow had significant selling pressure. (In this case, AI is looked at virtually the same as mREITs although it technically isn't one). What caused the sell-of in treasuries? There were a number of factors including large out flows from bond funds and also a "glich" that cause the treasury to postpone the auction of 7 year notes. Interest rates are moving higher and the market is expecting them to do so. It was the steepness of the increase in interest rates that spooked the market today. As for AI, they are hedged on their Agency portfolio and so while the stock price drop was significant, it will recover.
Wishing you the best;
It is a direct result of a significant spike in interest rates, especially in the 10 year rates which resulted in a significant sell-of of BDCs. Not to panic though, this is just part of adjusting back to "normal".
To compare 2005 with 2013 is hardly a fair, objective, or meaningful comparison. What matters is what the company is today.
A short history for AI:
9 Sept., "strong sell"- Closing price 24.75
28 Oct. AI's earning report- Closing price 25.21
26 Nov. "sell"-Closing price 26.60
29 Nov. - Closing price 26.71
Is there a pattern here? I think so; AI is moving up based on their earnings regardless of what ZACK says. How high? I believe that the price will be approaching BV sometime in the next two months. My rating: still a solid "Buy".
Zacks has a strong "sell" rating and Thomson Reuters has their highest "buy" rating. Who do you believe?
This is why it is important to not only look at the numbers, but understand the company and get to know the management. When a person goes beyond the recommendations of analysts and learn to rely upon their own DD they start to become an investor rather than a gambler/follower. As for AI, I would suggest looking at "core" earnings, BV, distribution coverage, and tax advantages. As you do so, you will know whether to follow Zacks and sell or Thomson Reuters and buy. One last thought, Zacks "sell" rating was given when AI was more than 5% lower than its current price.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just a short quote from today's CC which has direct bearing on NMM
"...there is a slowing trend in fleet growth along with significant additional iron ore export capacities in both Brazil and Australia should support rates, especially in the Capesize sector. Both the Panamax and Supramax sectors should benefit over the medium to long-term by Chinese coal and grain imports. A further slowdown in deliveries combined with a gradual recovery in the world economy should bode well for improving fundamentals in 2014 and beyond."
The reason Soros has been buying dividend paying dry bulk carriers is summed up in the following formula: shrinking fleet size + increasing rates + fewer new ships = greater profits/distributions.