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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

lutherhgillis_pi 39 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2016 9:12 PM Member since: May 3, 2007
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  • lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi May 1, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    By no means am I suggesting that you buy more CPLP. I'm just pointing out that rates are at historic lows and will not remain there forever.

  • lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi May 1, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    Certainly not a buy and hold forever, but if you think rates are going to stay low for an extended period of time, then go for it. Not an overstatement to say that rates are already at historic lows, so make sure you stay flexible when picking up those nickels in front of the steamroller (ha, in this case probably quarters with a 19% yield). And keep your axe handy to chop off your foot in case it gets caught and be prepared to run like .... when rates start going up.

  • lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 28, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    That shelf was there when the unit price was 10.

  • Reply to

    What does this mean going foward

    by crez7777 Apr 26, 2016 8:46 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 28, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

    I was being facetious. Someone tells me the market has "clarify" and I'm thinking, "Well, okay not yet, but nice try anyway." Still a few unanswered questions here.

  • Reply to

    What does this mean going foward

    by crez7777 Apr 26, 2016 8:46 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 28, 2016 6:22 AM Flag

    I wasn't aware that the HMM situation had been resolved.

  • Reply to

    This is why you should be upset.

    by neumansmom1 Apr 26, 2016 10:07 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 26, 2016 7:10 PM Flag

    If the preferred works like preferreds in the US, I believe to start cutting the preferred dividend, distribution on the common would have to be eliminated.... I think.

  • lutherhgillis_pi by lutherhgillis_pi Apr 26, 2016 7:42 AM Flag

    Theyll be fine but it will hurt today. Guess thats all we'll see of the experts around here for a while.

  • Reply to

    FIRST LINE OF 1ST QTR 2015 HIGHLIGHTS

    by dave2luv Apr 25, 2016 10:00 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 25, 2016 7:15 PM Flag

    Does not answer the point that others are trying to make, but okay.

  • Reply to

    Is CPLP about to take a NMM ?

    by davidbrother Apr 22, 2016 11:29 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 25, 2016 6:37 PM Flag

    David - Wouldn't eliminate the distribution completely, but 15 cents/qtr still leaves you at about a 15% yield. You have to pay something though and I do believe that it is oversold at this point so, 15 cents is about right for me and I'd use the rest for a smattering of debt reduction and buybacks. Bigger bang buying back units at this price. Pay a bigger dividend later but again, have to pay something. Other than that, I agree with your post.
    And by the way, YOU are 100% correct about the distribution announcement being late. Last year, the distribution was announced a week prior to the actual earnings release. This year, it would appear it will be announced WITH earnings. I do not know how someone can misinterpret this, but so be it. I think the size of the distribution is probably maintained this quarter, but in the future will be dependent on the HMM negotiations (duh). And I do anticipate news on the HMM negotiations tomorrow and how it impacts distribution. Now, if I’m CPLP and HMM is asking me to take a haircut, the HMM debt-holders had better be taking a haircut as well. If not, then forget it… not interested in negotiating at that point.

  • Reply to

    Looks like a buy here?

    by bolandwood Apr 23, 2016 1:41 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 24, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    Here's what I would say: Earnings are Tuesday before the bell. Whatever the price closes at on Monday, I don't think that the price will be anywhere near that Tuesday AFTER the bell. Now, which direction will it be? Longer term -60+% off the 52-week high and more longer term yet due to financial crises imo, but +50% off the low and +12%-ish over the past few weeks so shorter-term some have considered it worth buying. Volume was been super-heavy on the way down and I would say that the sellers were washed out. I was one of the buyers and think that this has over-corrected. Are there concerns? Sure. Anything that will take the company under? I don't think so. Honestly, for new money, if you really feel like you want to get in, but half now and half when the dust has settled after the earnings release and CC. If you want to roll the dice, buy what you want on Monday. The price movements are going to be driven quite a bit by headlines so probably not a smooth ride imo but again, I have money here at a 3.36 average and I'll ride for a while. Your mileage may vary.

  • Reply to

    Looks like a buy here?

    by bolandwood Apr 23, 2016 1:41 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 23, 2016 6:59 PM Flag

    Per the Nasdaq site, there just aren't that many shares short. On 3/31, it was about 1.2 million. Ha, regardless of what it is, I'd hate to have to cough up that distribution. That would kind of hurt.

  • lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 23, 2016 12:04 PM Flag

    Totally agree with the speculation in your second paragraph. No, I don't think the message would be that bad at all. Take some of the cash pay down debt, take another portion and buyback some shares. We don't pay taxes on share buybacks.

  • Reply to

    CPLP NEWS

    by dave2luv Apr 15, 2016 5:57 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 17, 2016 9:45 PM Flag

    So when you say "even with this nice supply, oil should still be between 60 and 70", then why do you believe it has traded so low? What is the cause? Why such a fluctuation from "equilibrium"?

  • Reply to

    CPLP NEWS

    by dave2luv Apr 15, 2016 5:57 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 17, 2016 6:55 PM Flag

    I was only pointing out the results of the Doha meetings in the context of your "It will just take longer without an oil price rally" quote. If you believe your quote that it will take longer without an oil price rally, then based on the Doha meetings, overproduction will continue (it was going to anyway) and oil's price could get hit pretty good tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    CPLP NEWS

    by dave2luv Apr 15, 2016 5:57 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 17, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    "It will just take longer without an oil price rally."
    If you believe that that's what's required, based on the outcome of the Doha meetings, you will have longer to wait.

  • Reply to

    CPLP NEWS

    by dave2luv Apr 15, 2016 5:57 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 15, 2016 10:21 PM Flag

    When the dates have fallen on a weekday, earnings and distribution announcements have been 30rd and 23rd respectively. With those dates falling on the weekend this, the last time the calendar fell like this, distribution was 4/21 and earnings was not until 5/5. You can see this on the investor relations page of their website.

  • Reply to

    ideas

    by rhe91160 Apr 14, 2016 10:43 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 14, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    I had posted something but Yahoo ate it. I will later. It will fold in with your banks idea but ha, I can say probably not for everyone. Let's just say there are candidates out there trading around tangible book or cheaper. Thinly traded though.

  • Reply to

    Advice for a newbie?

    by jbeckley59 Apr 13, 2016 8:11 PM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 14, 2016 6:21 AM Flag

    Right now, I have a little more than 3% here and it would have to drop below 3 for me to add. But that's me...

  • Reply to

    Gapping

    by rhe91160 Apr 13, 2016 10:53 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 13, 2016 8:08 PM Flag

    I said my piece, you've responded, and we'll just move on.

  • Reply to

    Gapping

    by rhe91160 Apr 13, 2016 10:53 AM
    lutherhgillis_pi lutherhgillis_pi Apr 13, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    Be careful. You took a victory lap yesterday on the high of the day and the price went down from there. Fortunately, you deleted the post. Then you turned around and took a victory lap on the high again today. That's interesting.

    "Also, whoever doesnt appreciate an analysts report, is wrong."

    Okay, so the last 3 rating changes have all been downgrades.

    Mar 11, 2016 Wells Fargo Downgrade Outperform Market Perform
    Mar 7, 2016 Seaport Global Securities Downgrade Accumulate Neutral
    Mar 4, 2016 BofA/Merrill Downgrade Buy Underperform

    So you are saying.... what? I know, I know - we're talking about analysts, not THOSE analysts.

    "Ive made so much money with the help of analysts, my head is spinning"

    Uh-huh.

    Look, I think we're on the right side of this trade. I do, despite what the analysts are telling me. Just be careful on the premature victory laps. I'm hoping there's a ways to go here.

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