I don't think you know what you are talking about. You probably made that up because of the drop in the stock price today. No stock can go up every day. Expect volatility.
But you are assuming nothing good is going to happen with Yahoo over the next 3 to 6 months. They are buying back shares which should help push the stock higher. They are beginning to monetize Twitter. Their mobile usage is increasing each month.
In January, they will announce earning for the year, and show Alibaba's 3rd qtr earnings. Keep in mind that Singles day was in November, so that won't even be reported until Yahoo's 1st qtr earnings in April. I'm betting Yahoo stock price continues to creep upward over the next few months. IMHO
The one thing you might be forgetting is the longer the IPO is delayed, the more money that Yahoo will make, assuming the value of alibaba increases over the next 3, 6, 9 months.
If Yahoo is forced to sell at the IPO price, the higher the IPO, the better. I ithink the delay in IPO date is actually going to add billions to Yahoo's coffers, rather than be a bad thing. IMHO
If that's the case, then Yahoo's stake will be $48 billion, plus by then, $15 billion for YJ and $20 billion core = $83 billion market cap. With 900 million shares outstanding = $90 per share.
Basically, what you are saying is that you believe Yahoo will get to a market cap of $90 billion by end of 2014. If they reduce share count to 900 million, then $100 per share would be $90 billion market cap.
Key for me is to see all assets and core growing. Then downside is minimized. Might go to $75, might go to $100, but will move higher if all assets continue to grow.
In my opinion, we will see the core start to grow in 2014, which changes the game since most people don't believe Yahoo can turn their core business around.
wow, that would be good. I think Fidelity would be in for the long haul.
wait to see how Yahoo core is doing at that time. If they are showing growth and AG and YJ and still growing, it would be difficult to justify selling. I see Yahoo having the ability to get to $90 billion market cap. With 900 million shares outstanding (After buybacks), that's $100 per share. Now, they would need to show significant revenue growth to support that valuation, but multiples might expand if they are showing decent growth. IMHO
ok, let's see if you are right. I think that might be conservative, only because I think Yahoo is going to make some surprise announcements in 2014. We'll see.
Did you see the post about live broadcasting of concerts and the article titled "Marissa Mayer's Biggest Game Changer Yet"? You might want to do your own due diligence on that.