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Harvard Bioscience Inc. Message Board

luvcash2 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 21, 2014 10:07 AM Member since: Sep 2, 2014
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  • Ethanol prices continue to show upward strength. This move is still extremely surprising as oil continues to sink. Energy pricing often moves together, so Ethanol up and oil down doesn't make much sense to me. Can anyone explain this disconnect?

    Anyway, this positive move for Ethanol is good news PEIX and GPRE. However, I would feel much better if we had confirmations from a rising oil energy complex.

    I'm still on the side lines. Let's see what happens over the next week. I'd rather be sure than wrong, especially with this stock!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Ethanol Prices Rebounding Sharply

    by luvcash2 Oct 17, 2014 11:11 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 17, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    OK...just what I thought....today's movement was just a Short Cover rally of PEIX up to $12.90. Now PEIX is trading at $11.37, down $.25, during a 200+ point upward movement in the Dow. Not a good sign for a long position in PEIX. Too much downside risk in PEIX! I'm out and staying out. Good Luck Everyone.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Some much needed good news for PEIX longs.

    After a massive drop, the price for Ethanol is rising. Check out the latest chart:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ethanol.aspx?timeframe=6m

    This move in Ethanol is a real surprise to me. However, "V" shape recoveries that result in sustained upside rallies don't happen that often.

    The question is, is this rally in Ethanol, and thus PEIX, real or is it a very short term rally produced by institutional short covering??? I don't know! My charting suggests that a rally like this was over due. They are common when markets are in the midst of a correction phase.

    I really can't buy PEIX here because I know that if this is a short cover rally, then the downside still remains very substantial. I've made my money in PEIX and have no position in it. Maybe I should just stay away from it until the next big cycle comes around.

    Any technicians or anyone else care to comment?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 14, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    I think $6 is very likely. $6 is only 4 points away and PEIX is dropping in a straight line at a rate of $2.50 per week. So in 2 weeks or so you might be at $6. But I still think PEIX will land at $3. It will take a little longer, but that's my target.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 14, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    Here is Part 2:

    I don’t remember the last time any stock took a hit just because of their balance sheet alone!

    So back to PEIX, the market is dumping PEIX and shorting it because they know that PEIX will have very disappointing news on all 3 of these items. So where is the floor on PEIX, I’m guessing $3.00.

    One last thought, looking forward over the next 2 or 3 years, you’ll see that PEIX’s once good looking balance sheet will eventually become very ugly!

    We'll see....

    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 14, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    You are absolutely correct factsnogossip. PEIX's balance sheet is tremendously improved! But let’s understand why. The balance sheet improved over the past year because Ethanol prices allowed PEIX to make money for the first time in a long time. Now that Ethanol prices have collapsed, Wall Street knows that PEIX is about to enter another cycle of not making money. Add to that, oil prices have crashed so the demand for alternative energy fuels, such as Ethanol, is now gone. Wall Street knows that PEIX’s future revenues and profitability are going to get crushed, so they are punishing the stock now.

    A lot of investors get caught up in discussions around balance sheets and the justification for a certain stock price. It’s important to note that there are many stocks that are trading below their book value. Fewer below cash value. On the flip side, there are many stocks that trade well above their book or cash value. So it’s hard to say that there is a direct correlation between balance sheets and stock prices. I believe that it’s better to treat balance sheets as a window to past company performance and management’s ability to management corporate assets.

    Balance sheets really matter for companies that do mergers and acquisitions. For other companies, balance sheets are important, but not critical for stock performance. Let’s test this idea: The balance sheets for many emerging drug companies usually stink. However, when they get FDA approval for their new drugs, their stocks soar. Their stocks went up 200% or 300% and their balance sheet has not changed a dime! Why the disconnect?

    Ultimately, what Wall Street cares about are usually 3 things: 1) Revenues 2) Profits and 3) The company’s ability to sustain and/or grow both. You have most likely been on many company earnings conference calls. This is all they talk about and you know that when companies miss on any of these 3 items, their stock gets slammed.

    Can’t type more here. Go to Part 2.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 13, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    By definition, "long term" means holding a stock for 1 Year or more. If you have held PEIX for more than 1 year in its entire history, there is a very good chance that the results have not been good. And...yes...if you bought perfectly and sold perfectly you might find an exception to what I stated above.

    Going back to 2006, typical up cycles for PEIX has lasted between 6 to 8 months. I know, because have traded PEIX successfully for many years. I caught the Ethanol wave of 2006 with PEIX. I did extremely well!

    My only point to these posts is to caution everyone that the fundamentals are breaking down on this stock, i.e. the underlying commodity pricing and the macro economic energy pricing. The time to be in this stock is when these factors are in your favor..."the trend is your friend". The time not to be in it is when these factors are against you. These factors are way against you now!!!

    You know...the stock market always makes geniuses and fools of us all.

    I could be right or I could be wrong. Based on the information I have in front me and my experience, I think I’m right. I’m sure you feel the same way. So we’ll see.

    Within 2 months, we’ll all see who’s thoughts and conclusions were correct. Let’s leave it at that!!! 

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 13, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    Thanks so much for your support!

    You know, I don't think that the Longs have done their homework. PEIX is, at best, a short trade. This stock has been a horrible long term investment. The Longs should look at long term chart:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PEIX+Interactive#symbol=PEIX;range=my

    This stock has done nothing for long term investors!!! So you would think that some investors would be cautious when getting anywhere near this stock. But, nope, some Longs really love this stock. I guess they will learn the hard way...from experience.

    Well we'll see what happens...........

    Again...thanks for your support.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 13, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    Really??? I got very lucky and sold my PEIX position at $22.00! Where did you sell yours???

    If you read this entire thread, I think that you'll see a more detailed explanation why I believe that PEIX will continue to drop. I hope you find it interesting, if not valuable.

    Regardless...good luck with your investments.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Why PEIX Will Collapse Back to $3.00 per Share!

    by luvcash2 Oct 12, 2014 2:27 AM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 13, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    I never said anything about "absolute".

    What I was suggesting was that there is a correlation between Ethanol and PEIX. To me, logic behind this relationship should be obvious. Historically speaking, there is usually a strong correlation between the price of a commodity and the stock price of a producer of that commodity. For example, when the price of oil was soaring, almost all of the oil related stocks went up in value. We can see the same association right now as the price of oil is dropping, most oil related stocks are dropping. Well, just like oil, Ethanol is a commodity and stocks like PEIX and GPRE will react to its pricing, up or down.

    I think that you need to face the fact that Ethanol prices have now crashed near an 8 year low. As such, it’s hard to believe that anyone would suggest that this is a great time to buy or hold this or any other stocks related to Ethanol.

    Looking at this situation from a macro point of view, Ethanol has an addition complication. Ethanol is viewed as an “alternative fuel”. An alternative fuel to…oil!!! If oil prices are high, then future demand for Ethanol should rise. However, if oil prices are dropping, then future demand for Ethanol should drop. Right now, oil prices are dropping sharply and may continue dropping for a while more. So, the macroeconomics of Ethanol, at this point, are terrible! Add this to the collapse of Ethanol pricing spells real trouble for Ethanol stocks, including PEIX.

    This is what the trouble looks like: On 9/9/2014, PEIX closed at $22.86. On 10/10/2014, this past Friday, PEIX closed at $10.87. So in 24 trading days, PEIX has dropped $12 in a straight line. Its descent rate is $2.50 per week!!!

    I think you believe that PEIX will be the race horse that will bring you to victory. However, remember the “Race Horse in the Barn” analogy: “Don’t talk about the merits of the race horse when the barn is burning down!”

    We’ll all see what happens. In the meantime, good luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I strongly believe that PEIX will continue to drop sharply until it reaches $3.00 per share. PEIX went up earlier this year because the price of Ethanol went up. During Nov 2013, Ethanol was priced at $1.60/gallon, while PEIX was at about $3.00/share. When Ethanol went up to $3.25/gallon, PEIX started to soar and got as high as $23.52 on 9/2/2014. Since 9/2, energy prices have collapsed and Ethanol has dropped back to $1.60/gallon. At $1.60/gallon, PEIX loses money again and the stock price should return to back $3.00/share, if not lower. This isn't rocket science...these are just the facts.

    Here is a link to an Ethanol pricing chart. Check it out yourself:
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/AC/W

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $80 is the Target.

    by luvcash2 Sep 15, 2014 3:33 PM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 11, 2014 6:28 AM Flag

    You made a great buy at $37. You obviously know what you are doing. Good luck going forward!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    $80 is the Target.

    by luvcash2 Sep 15, 2014 3:33 PM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Oct 10, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Well...we dropped through $80 in 2 trading days and now we are trading at $71. The question is, do we buy here or wait. Not sure. This market now looks extremely ugly. The technical charts look really bad. I say hold off. Don't spend your cash here!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Please don't make the same mistake as I!

    by luvcash2 Sep 15, 2014 1:00 PM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Sep 16, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Well...TRUE is up today at $19.90. It will take time to technically rebuild itself with an upward trend. We'll be fine! My father always said, "live and learn."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • luvcash2 by luvcash2 Sep 15, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    Now that the Apple launch story is behind us, I like AVGO. As I said on an earlier post when it was at $88, it's too high. It's still too high right now at $86.62. According to the charts, it should drop back to $80 within the next 10 trading days or so. We'll see if that turns out to be correct. AVGO is in the semiconductor space and I like them especially because they bought LSI logic back in December of last year. Both companies, now put together under AVGO, should represent an outstanding investment at this point in our economy. However, I like it at $80. We'll see...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I can't believe that I did something so stupid. I bought a stock that I knew was way too high and I just now got punished for it. I bought TRUE back on Sept 2 for $23.77. This stock way too high and I bought it anyway based on a gut feeling. I did something even worse...I put no stops losses in place! What stupid rookie mistakes I have made! This stock is now sitting at $19.35. It will go back up, but that doesn't excuse the stupidity on my part. Never again... My strongest suggestion to everyone...use your charts!!! Think clearly and execute based on facts...not gut feelings. Good luck everyone!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Hey, I just saw that the CEO just sold $20+ Million of AVGO on 9/3. That's odd! Why would the CEO sell his stock right before the iPhone 6 announcement? Very strange. Anyone care to comment?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I held by nose and bought TRUE a few days ago at $23.77. I have no solid justification. I just have a good feeling about it!!! We'll see...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Term Drop for AVGO

    by luvcash2 Sep 5, 2014 3:20 PM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Sep 5, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    If you are in it long term...OK. However, just remember that when stocks like this get too out of whack to the upside, they become targets of short selling institutions. Then things get very ugly! So if I owned AVGO now, I'd put in stops....that's just my opinion...for what ever it's worth!!! :-) One last thing, I found out since my last post why this stock is going up. AVGO was a previous supplier to Apple and a lot of people betting that AVGO is going to be used in the new iPhone 6 announced next week. With this information, I’ll pass on the stock. The reasons are simple; 1) If AVGO is in the iPhone, there is little upside at this point 2) If AVGO is not in the iPhone this stock will gap down considerably. This is just not my kind of stock. But I hope it works out for you!!! Good Luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Short Term Drop for AVGO

    by luvcash2 Sep 5, 2014 3:20 PM
    luvcash2 luvcash2 Sep 5, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    I forgot the mention the following: AVGO has gone from $69.71 (back on 8/7) to $88 now. That's an $18 point upward move in less than a month!!! Call me crazy...but this kind of movement is NOT sustainable. I could be wrong...but I definitely don't think so. We'll see...

    Sentiment: Buy

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