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MannKind Corp. Message Board

lwright36 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 5, 2015 9:25 PM Member since: Sep 7, 2012
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  • Reply to

    How Low Has The Office Of The President

    by j20tower Aug 5, 2015 4:08 PM
    lwright36 lwright36 Aug 5, 2015 9:25 PM Flag

    But nick they actually found the WMDs in Iraq. End of 2014. I know liberal media will not report that, but wow intelligence that BUSH acted on was right all along.

    Hmmm....damn.....

  • lwright36 lwright36 Jun 21, 2015 11:30 PM Flag

    wow thanks for the insight doc. most docs dumb #@$# anyway, so you fit the bill

  • Reply to

    ESHRE Data Out !!!! NIce !!!!

    by lwright36 Jun 17, 2015 6:48 AM
    lwright36 lwright36 Jun 17, 2015 6:51 AM Flag

    And another.......With the AUGMENT treatment, the patients’ combined clinical pregnancy rates increased at least five-fold

  • “We offered the AUGMENT treatment to some of the most difficult-to-treat IVF patients who had a variety of factors impacting their ability to achieve a successful pregnancy,” said Dr. Fakih. “In spite of their poor prognoses, we saw clinical pregnancy rates climb to 22% from a 4% rate based on their combined prior IVF cycles. This is convincing evidence of the benefit of the AUGMENT treatment, and we are expanding on these initial experiences to include many more patients.

  • lwright36 lwright36 Jun 6, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    My largest holding is SGEN, smile !!!!

  • Still not sure why we are using 2019 for peak sales, given likely accelerated approval timeframe, lack of any overall survival benefit for Avastin, and really any other treatment options with any survival benefit....I would think 2018 is more reasonable (maybe sooner, lets hope for thr GBM patients), so lets use a three year NPV.

    15% is not used as a discount factor in any real calculation. My clients tend to use 4% to 5%, but I have seen 7%, so lets go with that, which I am still saying is conservative.

    Example 1- Low End Sales Estimate = $400 million

    $400,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $326million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $326 million = $2.61 Billion Market Cap

    $2.61 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $26.65 per share

    Example 2- MId-Range Sales Estimate = $700 million

    $700,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $571million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $571 million = $4.57 Billion Market Cap

    $4.57 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $46.64 per share

    Conclusion: Fair Value of CLDX based on RINDO ALONE = $26 to $46 per share.

    We are at the low end of the range, with no value included for Varli and Glemba, which is crazy.

    I recommend adding anywhere around $26 to $27.

    Short Term Price Target: $35 to $39.

  • lwright36 lwright36 Jun 5, 2015 11:16 PM Flag

    Still not sure why we are using 2019 for peak sales, given likely accelerated approval timeframe, lack of any overall survival benefit for Avastin, and really any other treatment options with any survival benefit....I would think 2018 is more reasonable (maybe sooner, lets hope for thr GBM patients), so lets use a three year NPV.

    15% is not used as a discount factor in any real calculation. My clients tend to use 4% to 5%, but I have seen 7%, so lets go with that, which I am still saying is conservative.

    Example 1- Low End Sales Estimate = $400 million

    $400,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $326million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $326 million = $2.61 Billion Market Cap

    $2.61 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $26.65 per share

    Example 2- MId-Range Sales Estimate = $700 million

    $700,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $571million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $571 million = $4.57 Billion Market Cap

    $4.57 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $46.64 per share

    Conclusion: Fair Value of CLDX based on Rindo Alone = $26 to $46 per share.

    We are at the low end of the range, with no value included for Varli and Glemba, which is crazy.

    I recommend adding anywhere around $26 to $27.

  • $400 million market opportunity for Celldex. Let's say Celldex treats 60% of those patients three years after Rintega's launch in 2016. That's $240 million in Rintega sales by the end of 2019. What's that worth today? At a 6x multiple discounted back 15%, you get a net present value of $760 million.

    1) This $400 million is sales for only the "Recurrent" population, not the "Newly diagnosed, which is a much bigger population, misleading.....
    2) Even if you only assume the "Recurrent" population, why would the sales not occur until 2019 if Rintega is approved in 2016, misleading.....
    3) He then discounts back by %15 percent per year, compounded over three years....VERY misleading.....this is where the math gets funny. This reduced the market cap by over 50% !!!!!!!!! This is just stupid.

    Let's us his number of $700million (he does come back and at least consider sales will be higher), and his multiplier, an assume market penetration is 60% (on the low side)

    6X multipler X $700 million X = 0.60 = $2.6 B market cap, or $26 per share

    What a tool !!!!

    I prefer to use the median biotech price to sales ratio of 8X, and a market penetration of 75%

    8X multiplier X $700 million X 0.75 = $4.2B market cap, or about $42 per share.

    This includes no value for Varli and Glemba, which have even bigger sales potential

MNKD
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