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Exact Sciences Corporation Message Board

lwright36 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2015 11:30 PM Member since: Sep 7, 2012
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  • lwright36 lwright36 Jun 21, 2015 11:30 PM Flag

    wow thanks for the insight doc. most docs dumb #@$# anyway, so you fit the bill

  • Reply to

    ESHRE Data Out !!!! NIce !!!!

    by lwright36 Jun 17, 2015 6:48 AM
    lwright36 lwright36 Jun 17, 2015 6:51 AM Flag

    And another.......With the AUGMENT treatment, the patients’ combined clinical pregnancy rates increased at least five-fold

  • “We offered the AUGMENT treatment to some of the most difficult-to-treat IVF patients who had a variety of factors impacting their ability to achieve a successful pregnancy,” said Dr. Fakih. “In spite of their poor prognoses, we saw clinical pregnancy rates climb to 22% from a 4% rate based on their combined prior IVF cycles. This is convincing evidence of the benefit of the AUGMENT treatment, and we are expanding on these initial experiences to include many more patients.

  • lwright36 lwright36 Jun 6, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    My largest holding is SGEN, smile !!!!

  • Still not sure why we are using 2019 for peak sales, given likely accelerated approval timeframe, lack of any overall survival benefit for Avastin, and really any other treatment options with any survival benefit....I would think 2018 is more reasonable (maybe sooner, lets hope for thr GBM patients), so lets use a three year NPV.

    15% is not used as a discount factor in any real calculation. My clients tend to use 4% to 5%, but I have seen 7%, so lets go with that, which I am still saying is conservative.

    Example 1- Low End Sales Estimate = $400 million

    $400,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $326million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $326 million = $2.61 Billion Market Cap

    $2.61 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $26.65 per share

    Example 2- MId-Range Sales Estimate = $700 million

    $700,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $571million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $571 million = $4.57 Billion Market Cap

    $4.57 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $46.64 per share

    Conclusion: Fair Value of CLDX based on RINDO ALONE = $26 to $46 per share.

    We are at the low end of the range, with no value included for Varli and Glemba, which is crazy.

    I recommend adding anywhere around $26 to $27.

    Short Term Price Target: $35 to $39.

  • lwright36 lwright36 Jun 5, 2015 11:16 PM Flag

    Still not sure why we are using 2019 for peak sales, given likely accelerated approval timeframe, lack of any overall survival benefit for Avastin, and really any other treatment options with any survival benefit....I would think 2018 is more reasonable (maybe sooner, lets hope for thr GBM patients), so lets use a three year NPV.

    15% is not used as a discount factor in any real calculation. My clients tend to use 4% to 5%, but I have seen 7%, so lets go with that, which I am still saying is conservative.

    Example 1- Low End Sales Estimate = $400 million

    $400,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $326million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $326 million = $2.61 Billion Market Cap

    $2.61 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $26.65 per share

    Example 2- MId-Range Sales Estimate = $700 million

    $700,000,000 / 1.07 / 1.07 /1.07 = $571million NPV 2015

    8x multipiler X $571 million = $4.57 Billion Market Cap

    $4.57 Billion / 98 millions shares outstanding = $46.64 per share

    Conclusion: Fair Value of CLDX based on Rindo Alone = $26 to $46 per share.

    We are at the low end of the range, with no value included for Varli and Glemba, which is crazy.

    I recommend adding anywhere around $26 to $27.

  • $400 million market opportunity for Celldex. Let's say Celldex treats 60% of those patients three years after Rintega's launch in 2016. That's $240 million in Rintega sales by the end of 2019. What's that worth today? At a 6x multiple discounted back 15%, you get a net present value of $760 million.

    1) This $400 million is sales for only the "Recurrent" population, not the "Newly diagnosed, which is a much bigger population, misleading.....
    2) Even if you only assume the "Recurrent" population, why would the sales not occur until 2019 if Rintega is approved in 2016, misleading.....
    3) He then discounts back by %15 percent per year, compounded over three years....VERY misleading.....this is where the math gets funny. This reduced the market cap by over 50% !!!!!!!!! This is just stupid.

    Let's us his number of $700million (he does come back and at least consider sales will be higher), and his multiplier, an assume market penetration is 60% (on the low side)

    6X multipler X $700 million X = 0.60 = $2.6 B market cap, or $26 per share

    What a tool !!!!

    I prefer to use the median biotech price to sales ratio of 8X, and a market penetration of 75%

    8X multiplier X $700 million X 0.75 = $4.2B market cap, or about $42 per share.

    This includes no value for Varli and Glemba, which have even bigger sales potential

  • Using annual sales estimates of $400M for the GBM recurrent population ONLY, I come up with an estimated share price of $34 per share at a lower range biotech price to sales ratio (very conservative approach).

    Using the midrange sales estimate of $700M, which includes 50% of the newly diagnosed population, I come up with a share price of $45 per share at a lower range biotech price to sales ratio. (Using the median biotech price to sales ratio, I come up with a share price of $52 per share).

    My guess is CLDX trades between these two tomorrow.

    Price tomorrow = $37 to 40 per share.

    Of course, this includes no valuation for varli and glemba, which both have bigger potential.

    NIce !!!!

  • lwright36 lwright36 May 31, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    go/no go is interim data, not numerical data.....but data

  • To state the obvious, REACT was for RE-CURRENT Glioblastoma, not NEWLY DIagnosed.

    Interim data expected from ACT IV for NEWLY Diagnosed Glioblastoma later this year.

    For this hard to treat subset, this improvement is amazing, and lays the foundation for exciting data from ACT IV.

    I say hit mid 30s tomorrow, maybe 37.

    But just the beginning, data from Varli and Glemba trials coming...oh my.

    Back the truck up !!!

  • lwright36 by lwright36 Apr 14, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Most obvious market manipulation have seen in a while. When it is this obvious, wow.

    Jefferies had a $30 price target and lowered it to $9, after the FDA said ARWR can proceed with the trial. #$%$....That is huge news.

    Jefferies got caught with hand in cookie jar, shorts existing over next 15 to 20 days like wildfire. Watch.

    My conservative short term price target is $15. Book it and take it to the freakin bank,

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