The FDA needs to be impressed, with a little razzmatazz (good science and good medicine). There are lives at stake that can be saved, if the FDA will wake up.
Those are the exact words (from Dr. T's mouth) that would get the stock from the 4's to the 8's in an instant. We have to hear about "the future of modern medicine" and "the miracle drug" from the great doctor and his associates.
The "bummer" would be negative news from Dr. T tomorrow. Nobody is expecting that. Good "new" news would cause the stock to soar. Even the repackaging of "old" news with a "new-wrapper" could move the stock upward. Dr. T's comments are usually positive, but no one seems to have any pre-information. We will all have to wait for his comments, and the analysis afterwards by others.
You are correct about the 10+. Your time frame is very conservative; at the most a few months, and the least would be next week, depending on news from Mayo Clinic and Dr. Tefferi. The "science is too good", along with the results.
It seems to me that this stock could not be held in such a narrow range around $5 without a considerable amount of manipulation. The reasons are not obvious to me; also the legalities are not clear. Any FDA endorsement should cause a breakout. Most believe that is coming, but no one has a clue when that will happen.
The risk/reward ratio looks very promising. The downside per share is about $5, and the upside is about $95 or more (compare to Amgen). The chances of a Geron wipeout, at this point, in time look very remote.
There is no negative news coming about Imtelstat that has even been hinted about. The only question is, if the very positive news that we expect is ready for release. The channel has been from about $4.25 to $5.75 with $5 right in the middle. Anything under $5 looks like a (almost) sure bet, even for traders who have a horizon of about a week. $10 is still the Piper Jaffray number, on positive news and FDA support. That could happen anytime.
I believe that you are correct. The Mayo Clinic never has disappointed in clinical updates concerning Imetelstat.
Probably a good time to add to holdings. World events (Crimea) should have little, if anything, to do with the long term viability of Imetelstat, and cancer treatments.
For all of the reasons above (in the name of logic) March will be the take-off month for Geron. All of the arguments about the FDA withholding approval because of some "fatal-flaw" in Imetelstat or lack of sufficient data do not seem to be creditable, as new information is continually released. [The needs of dying patients, and remissions plus potential cures for those that are in earlier stages of these illnesses] will dominate all arguments from the anti-telomere lobby, in my opinion. The FDA is about to couple compassion, need, effectiveness, and safety into a responsible, accelerated approach, in my opinion, sometime in the month of March.
These are not strangers and they talk to each. Unless some negatives develop (safety, relapses, etc.) there is no reason to deny blood cancer patients access to Imetelstat. I can understand the drive to get more confirming data and the caution of premature use, but that has to be weighed against the needs of dying patients, and remissions plus potential cures for those that are in earlier stages of these illnesses. All and all, there will likely be a quick resolution in favor of some type of accelerated approval, when we least expect it. That seems to be the logical outcome. The movements of the stock price are a completely different matter, and do not concern the FDA or Mayo.
There is a question of manipulation and legality here, but I doubt if anyone is prepared to take it on. This is in the same controversial area as fast-trading, which involves micro-second time differentials. Some believe that this gives a few sophisticated traders an unfair advantage, but it still exists.
This is a chat room with several purposes: investment information, interesting scientific and medical developments, replacement for printed newspapers, conjecture, social time, fun. Take your choice, but don't be so negative, and downright mean.
It seems to me that "fast-track" or some other accelerated approval is in Geron's best interest. The FDA, Geron and Mayo must be talking about it, since that also appears to be in the best interest of many blood cancer patients. In this case, they likely have chosen not to talk publicly about it until the parts of the puzzle are in place, and a plan is to be announced. The FDA will be heard from soon. Of course, this will effect the stock price. The chances of negative results from ongoing Mayo studies appears to be very low, but that is not a "slam-dunk", and seems to provide the only remaining questions.
There are those that believe that either Geron's Imetelstat is either a hoax or has been greatly exaggerated. There is no reasonable logic here, since Mayo Clinics word is gold. Channel investing between the middle $4's and middle $5's will continue until the FDA speaks. I don't see any bad news coming, but sometimes one is blind sided.
WELCOME TO THE MPN EDUCATION FOUNDATION (Myeloproliferative Neoplasms at the Mayo Clinic)
Announcing the 2015 Joyce Niblack Memorial Conference on
Myeloproliferative Neoplasms at the Mayo Clinic in Scottsdale AZ
February 21 & February 22, 2015
Roundtable Welcome luncheon Friday February 20
Details available soon