Most of the world knows nothing about IMET and its "miracle" properties related to blood cancer remissions and cures. Until JNJ tells us that they have confirmed, beyond any doubt, that IMET is a superior drug (breakthrough and BAT), most in the investing community will see IMET as a promising but unproven medicine.
Some see Geron as an ideal candidate for "computer games". IMO, Mayo Clinic's trials and results have been successful, and confirmation from JNJ is near. JNJ is very conservative, and Geron is very vulnerable. To those that have been following IMET's progress, all news is good, and IMET has already proven itself.
The world is waiting for confirmation of the Mayo Clinic MF pilot studies by JNJ, which means new remissions worldwide, followed by approvals in many countries, and expanded uses in all blood cancers, plus accelerated research in "new indications".
Talk to the computers. They can recognize patterns, and make "timely" decisions. Can they recognize a "sea-change", such as new remissions, and enhance that result (when and if it happens from JNJ 80 or so sites).
NEJM articles, BIO Forum, ASH abstracts, Stifel Health, Piper Jaffray Health, ASH. The news is coming fast and furious, and it is all good.
How long will Geron be an independent company, in your opinion? Janssen was once independent and is now part of the JNJ family (wholly owned subsidiary).
The major consideration, IMO, is when JNJ sees new remissions and when they tell us about them. Fish### told us that JNJ plans interim reports, and if the data continues to be good (new remissions, etc.) the FDA or a similar organization in another country (80 sites) could grant full approval at any time. JNJ is well hedged. New remissions will positively affect Geron's PPS.
IMET is under JNJ's control. The clock is running as we approach ASH. We will soon find out how well IMET is performing in various blood cancer trials (MF, MDS, AML), and judge Geron's market potential accordingly. IMET will reveal its "merits and potential".
There is almost 100% agreement that IMET works in many, if not all, of the blood cancer maladies, with the emphasis now on MF, MDS, and AML. It is possible, and I think probable, that the FDA will say "enough" and give full approval long before the, "24 weeks is 6 months from last patient to infuse" period is completed, perhaps in a few days, likely before ASH. Why should the FDA hold back approval for a medicine that is overwhelmingly successful and safe? Some non-USA group may beat the FDA to the punch. JNJ is hedging by going international.
There seems to be more disagree about what this will mean for long term investors, since JNJ/Janssen is the senior partner, and controls IMET's future, but is not Geron, which is subject to market forces and manipulation of their PPS, that no one fully understands. Computer algorithms, that make money, seem to a factor.
I can't find the link, but I believe that I read that there would be interim reports, so we would not have to wait 6 months for information. This is a matter for JNJ. What do they know and, when do they choose to tell us what they know? With ODD approval (from the FDA) in place, at Janssen's (JNJ) request, we know that JNJ is working for full approval for IMET, not only at home, but worldwide. Will we be told about remissions when they happen? After all, this is a 'process' to confirm and enhance Mayo Clinic's pilot study, and that was successful.
It all comes down to remissions and the confirmation of Mayo's MF successes. IMO, this is as close to a sure thing as you can get.
The science and medical successes are in place (Mayo Clinic, NEJM, BIO Forum). The confirmation will be JNJ/Janssen's announcements about new blood cancer remissions. This should get the "press" and credibility necessary to improve Geron's PPS.
Thanks Irish. I don't believe it is possible for 'the bad guys' to hold the PPS down much longer, with so much IMET good news, and no bad news. The BIO Forum presentation (all good) and the NEJM (IMET) articles are both pointing to the ASH abstracts (early Nov.) and ASH (Dec. 5 to 8) for some exciting medical information, especially about MF, MDS and AML.
It seems like GERN has turned some sort of corner in a positive way. The road to ASH is being built, and there are no negatives. From what I am able to find, with the NEJ of Medicine being a reliable source along with Mayo Clinic and JNJ, ASH will establish IMET as an important medicine for 3 blood cancers (MF, MDS, AML).
Some people are able to write highly intelligent algorithms that make money for them. Until IMET's "good news" is "overwhelming", this will continue to happen. The BIO Forum presentation (Oct. 21) is a step in the right direction (all good IMET news), and ASH (Dec.5 to 8) should deliver the "overwhelming good news".
This is an excellent summary. The manipulators should be minimized by this this talk (BIO Forum, Oct. 21), and the Geron PPS should move much higher (All positives, no negatives about IMET).
The PPS has been manipulated and contolled for a very long time by varous processes that seem to be related to hedge funds, and lack of tranparency. The transcript of the Oct. 21 talk (see Geron website) should end many of these "games", but these market manipulators will not "die easily". This BIO talk was clear and near perfection, showed no IMET negatives, and set the goal for ASH very high and very reachable. Before ASH we have Stifel and Piper Jaffray health conferences to keep the ball rolling. The science and medicine are strong, and remissions will keep coming.