Scarlett is guaranteed to say something new, as an associate of JNJ. He put the JNJ-Mayo Clinic-Geron IMET/cancer package together for the patients, researchers and investors. Will any thing that Scarlett says move the stock upward? We may have to wait for the "real" JNJ to get more aggressive in their praise of IMET (AACR--April 19 is the 1st possible date)..
The "JNJ-factor" (new IMET trials, comparisons with Mayo Clinic's earlier MF successes) is all that matters. Look at the status of the trials through the Needham and the AACR presentations this week for updates.
Black--JNJ was the best choice, with Dr. S and Dr. T the decision makers. Look at the commitment (trials worldwide, over 100 sites). JNJ thinks very highly of Dr. S and may be grooming him for a position with the new company (perhaps a Janssen spinoff). I am sure Dr. S protected himself contractually (lifetime salary comment).
Come-on Black---"Chippy" only got JNJ as a senior partner by agreeing to their terms, one of which was that he would place himself in a subsidiary role, and not rock JNJ's boat. Of course, JNJ was intrigued by Dr.T's IMET successes at Mayo Clinic. When "Chippy" talks, that is a JNJ spokesman. He serves by the will of JNJ, who finds him useful. Chippy is there at least until IMET gets FDA and worldwide approvals beyond ODD, and perhaps much longer.
1. Geron had a history of problems with hESC's and the religious right. Wisely they concentrated their resources and talent on Imetelstat (IMET), Mayo Clinic and JNJ. They maintain an interest in stem cells (cancer stem cells, hESC). They are very successful in advancing IMET, and putting IMET into safe (JNJ) hands.
2. The best way to increase investor value (Geron's PPS) is to support the JNJ's trials, and to get IMET approved (FDA and Worldwide). IMET's success is JNJ's (and Mayo Clinic's and Geron's) success. Scarlett said that IMET is now fully a Janssen (JNJ) project (trials, manufacturing, distribution).
3. Geron is now the junior partner, and Scarlett is a team player on the JNJ team. Geron's PPS has its own story that partly has to do with IMET successes and partly has to do with market manipulations of a small biotech stock. Thankfully, JNJ is in control so IMET has no financial, legal or medical concerns. IMET will rise or fall based upon it medical successes in treating cancer (alone and in combinations).
Black--The best way to increase investor value for Scarlett to support the JNJ's trials, and to get IMET approved (FDA and Worldwide). IMET's success is JNJ's (and Mayo Clinic's and Geron's) success. Scarlett said that IMET is now fully a Janssen (JNJ) project (trials, manufacturing, distribution).
Geron is now the junior partner, and Scarlett is a team player on the JNJ team. Geron's PPS has its own story that partly has to do with IMET successes and partly has to do with market manipulations of a small biotech stock. Thankfully, JNJ is in control so IMET has no financial, legal or medical concerns. IMET will rise or fall based upon it medical successes in treating cancer (alone and in combinations).
You may be right. On the other hand, as a "Janssen news eunuch" he may have been sent to the front to start the "good news rolling". We will soon have several interpretations.
Black---We will get the follow-up on Tuesday at Needham. We will both be listening. When Scarlett talks, Geron's PPS usually goes down, no matter what he says about IMET. Will this time be any different? The only new information is being generated by the JNJ trials. Scarlett is a JNJ consultant perhaps, but probably not an active researcher. JNJ is calling the shots (moonshots).
Black--I thought Scarlett specifically took any "new acquisition" off the table for now. The future is unpredictable after IMET is approved (we hope) worldwide (beyond ODD status) as a transformative drug that is one of the major components in treating, curing and preventing most cancers (moonshot).
JNJ will control and own IMET, based upon "conditions" that we are speculating about. The Geron name may continue as a fully owned subsidiary (Like Janssen), or in some other form, or could vanish. Needham and the AACR are both close, and will say something positive.
There has been observations in the past that when Scarlett spoke the PPS did not respond positively. This time (Needham, Tuesday--April 12) he will be speaking as a lead-in to the AACR (JNJ, Tuesday--April 19). Continuing "steady as she goes news" would be good.
"Everyone tends to discount whatever "Chip" presents. I think it is reasonable to say that his material is reviewed and limited by JNJ, and that he is a spokesman for JNJ now, since they are the only ones continuing IMET trials for blood cancers. I don't believe that he can hurt the IMET franchise, and may have some new information (Tuesday, April 12 at Needham). Then one week later (April 19) comes the posters at AACR (Janssen-JNJ). There is significant interest from all cancer patients and from the numerous worldwide trial sites. Is JNJ ready to support IMET (louder and clearer) in public at this time?" --(previous)
Black---"guess the FDA"
This is an easy one. The FDA (and the EU) are already on JNJ's, the patients', and IMET's side with ODD status. IMET meets all FDA requirements (safety, need, uniqueness, effectiveness). The FDA is required by law to approve this drug, since there is no alternative and it works.
I just can't figure if we are talking days, weeks, or at the latest the end of this quarter (June 31). JNJ and the FDA will decide the date based upon formal filings and the trial data accumulations. There are many reasons to believe that JNJ can reproduce and confirm Mayo Clinic's MF successes. Listen to Needham and the AACR (next 10 days) presentations..
Medically there seems to no reason why the FDA should wait any longer to give IMET advanced approvals beyond the ODD status that they have already granted. Perhaps JNJ wants the "whole ball of wax" now, without any limitations. The IMET safety profile, effectiveness, uniqueness, and the immediate need all seem very positive. Logic points to immediate approvals, but JNJ is being very, very careful. The trial data and results are being gathered as more patients pass the 24 week mark.
Of course there are some "conditions" in place. JNJ has too much invested in all types of their resources (medical, legal, financial, pipeline, oncology leadership, patients and trials, etc.) for it to be otherwise. JNJ took Imetelstat, that had great potential (from Mayo Clinic's limited MF trials), and has backed it completely worldwide on a vast scale. Hopes are high, as we all wait for JNJ to start telling us about their new trials (perhaps starting with the AACR). JNJ controls IMET.
"Chip" has one job, and that is to listen to and support JNJ-Janssen in everyway possible so that IMET gets fully approved international for blood cancers now, and all cancers (alone and in combinations) going forward. Chip said last time: Watch carefully the Janssen trials (Needham follow-up on Tuesday--April 12). This includes the "Cancer-Moonshot", cancer cures and cancer prevention (cancer vaccines).
JNJ is the only organization that has the experience and know-how to get advanced approvals all over the world. Geron is now an important, but junior partner. JNJ knows how the FDA works, and what they need. "Chip's"' claim to fame is the JNJ connection.
Everyone tends to discount whatever "Chip" presents. I think it is reasonable to say that his material is reviewed and limited by JNJ, and that he is a spokesman for JNJ now, since they are the only ones continuing IMET trials for blood cancers. I don't believe that he can hurt the IMET franchise, and may have some new information (Tuesday, April 12 at Needham). Then one week later (April 19) comes the posters at AACR (Janssen-JNJ). There is significant interest from all cancer patients and from the numerous worldwide trial sites. Is JNJ ready to support IMET (louder and clearer) in public at this time?
I think most of the world, when they hear about "a cure for cancer" or even a major advance in the treatment, think "snake-oil". IMET needs loud, clear and unambiguous pronouncements (from JNJ) to evaluate IMET (from snake-oil to an important cancer-transformative-medicine). We will see if the AACR is a start. The evidence is mounting in IMET's favor, but the jury is still out.
There has always been speculation of a spun-off Janssen as the premier oncology company, with a "blockbuster" Imetelstat, Geron would be absorbed. Janssen once was independent. JNJ is so large now, that a spinoff would make sense.
"Janssen Pharmaceuticals offers a wide range of therapeutics, including products for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), general medicine (acid reflux disease, infectious diseases), mental health (bipolar I disorder, schizophrenia), neurologics (Alzheimer's disease, epilepsy, migraine prevention and treatment), pain management, and women's health. A US-based arm of Johnson & Johnson's global pharmaceuticals segment, the company's offerings include Risperdal for schizophrenia, anti-infective Levaquin, ADHD drug Concerta, pain medicine Nucynta, and contraceptive Ortho Evra. "
JNJ will control IMET. The question is how will they do that and what is IMET worth as a critical part (telomere length & enzyme telomerase considerations) of the treatment and cure of all cancers (blood cancers first--then cancer vaccines and beyond). JNJ may already have what they want. If IMET is the "missing link" in the Cancer-Moonshot (listen to Needham and AACR) then IMET is worth several fold the current price. Is there a good reason for JNJ not to absorb Geron (with good to outstanding results from their worldwide trials)?
Remember that Needham is a lead-in to the AACR (JNJ), and "Chippy" releases only the information that JNJ scripts for him. IMET is very important to JNJ, and JNJ is the senior partner.
We are all starved for information about the numerous worldwide JNJ-IMET trials. Will Needham (April 12) and the AACR (April 19) give us a down-payment about progress and potential? I certainly hope so. All we can do is listen and draw our own conclusions.