For all of the reasons above (in the name of logic) March will be the take-off month for Geron. All of the arguments about the FDA withholding approval because of some "fatal-flaw" in Imetelstat or lack of sufficient data do not seem to be creditable, as new information is continually released. [The needs of dying patients, and remissions plus potential cures for those that are in earlier stages of these illnesses] will dominate all arguments from the anti-telomere lobby, in my opinion. The FDA is about to couple compassion, need, effectiveness, and safety into a responsible, accelerated approach, in my opinion, sometime in the month of March.
These are not strangers and they talk to each. Unless some negatives develop (safety, relapses, etc.) there is no reason to deny blood cancer patients access to Imetelstat. I can understand the drive to get more confirming data and the caution of premature use, but that has to be weighed against the needs of dying patients, and remissions plus potential cures for those that are in earlier stages of these illnesses. All and all, there will likely be a quick resolution in favor of some type of accelerated approval, when we least expect it. That seems to be the logical outcome. The movements of the stock price are a completely different matter, and do not concern the FDA or Mayo.
There is a question of manipulation and legality here, but I doubt if anyone is prepared to take it on. This is in the same controversial area as fast-trading, which involves micro-second time differentials. Some believe that this gives a few sophisticated traders an unfair advantage, but it still exists.
This is a chat room with several purposes: investment information, interesting scientific and medical developments, replacement for printed newspapers, conjecture, social time, fun. Take your choice, but don't be so negative, and downright mean.
It seems to me that "fast-track" or some other accelerated approval is in Geron's best interest. The FDA, Geron and Mayo must be talking about it, since that also appears to be in the best interest of many blood cancer patients. In this case, they likely have chosen not to talk publicly about it until the parts of the puzzle are in place, and a plan is to be announced. The FDA will be heard from soon. Of course, this will effect the stock price. The chances of negative results from ongoing Mayo studies appears to be very low, but that is not a "slam-dunk", and seems to provide the only remaining questions.
There are those that believe that either Geron's Imetelstat is either a hoax or has been greatly exaggerated. There is no reasonable logic here, since Mayo Clinics word is gold. Channel investing between the middle $4's and middle $5's will continue until the FDA speaks. I don't see any bad news coming, but sometimes one is blind sided.
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The Street has done a 180 degree flip from "do not touch" to "buy with both hands". They expect Geron to explode. It is always comforting when you can win over your biggest doubters to your side. Mayo Clinic's evidence is beyond reproach (new remissions & possible cures).
Feb. 26, 2014
That has already happened and is old history. We are waiting for the FDA to formally acknowledge success sometime in March, 2014.
A winning formula
It is becoming obvious that this is truly the "Ultimate Cancer Holy Grail". No one knows if this can be achieved alone, or in some combination, but it is certainly worth the effort. Any hint that this is achievable would push the stock to $50. The $10 that Piper Jaffray has predicted, could be possible on March 9th, depending on what Dr. T has to say on March 8th. Otherwise, we will have to wait awhile longer for special treatment from the FDA.
There is the problem of investing on insider information. If you have information that the general public does not know about, and you profit, then there is always the potential of a jail sentence. There is no question that some people have much more factual information (not conjecture) than anyone on this board possesses. We longs believe it is all good, but it is possible that these market manipulators (crooks, shorts ?) know about failures that are hidden from the general public. This may be the reason that the channel holds in the range between high $4's and low $5's . I don't think so, but it is possible.
The logic escapes me. Either Imetelstat and telomeres are a great concept with successful and safe outcomes, or they are not. You are saying that the FDA are bunch of political hacks, that are "indifferent" to human needs, "overworked", and believe somehow that any positive decision on Imetelstat would "blow back on their careers". If you are correct then many are going to die prematurely and unnecessarily of certain blood cancers. This would be a scandal, with elements of "killing-fields". I don't think so. The FDA may be slow and overly cautious, but I don't believe they are callous.
It is true that the FDA is not deaf and blind. They know about Imetelstat, its capabilities, successes and safety. It seems obvious that approval of some sort is very close, but nobody (Geron, Mayo, FDA) is talking. A successful cancer drug cannot be kept off the market for long.
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