That what I think. There are some big announcements coming (FDA, associates, additional Mayo trials, pipeline, etc.) but we don't know when. I hope we are right.
Certainly you are correct. I believe that the Imetelstat story is forthright and honest (95%). It's that other 5% that worries me, and the possibility of a medical-scam. After the Madoff revelations, nobody can be completely trusted, especially if it is market related, IMHO. Regan was correct about, "Trust, but verify". Verifying is not so easy, and not complete in the minds of many.
What are you talking about? What "sky" has fallen? I think you are suggesting that the whole Imetelstat, Mayo operation is some sort of "pie in the sky" fraudulent scheme, led by Dr. T. That has to be 100% wrong, since Mayo stands for honesty, great medicine and excellence. There is already too much positive evidence (PR's, CR's, CI's and potential "cures" or permanent "disease modifications" ), for significant reversals. Nobody is questioning those facts, as we wait for additional results for further confirmations.
Did Dr. T say anything at all about Imetelstat in Indianapolis? It is good that there were no negative announcements, but the silence is deafening. Were the Mayo trials even mentioned? Was there any talk of the "miracle-drug"?
5 years is a statistically calculated number that is arbitrary and convenient. All cancer patients hope for CR a cure. Imetelstat does that.
We all assume that Dr. T showed-up and presented some material. However, even that has not been confirmed on this board. A summary should appear, even if it was a rehash of old material. What did he say, and what questions were asked and answered?
The FDA needs to be impressed, with a little razzmatazz (good science and good medicine). There are lives at stake that can be saved, if the FDA will wake up.
Those are the exact words (from Dr. T's mouth) that would get the stock from the 4's to the 8's in an instant. We have to hear about "the future of modern medicine" and "the miracle drug" from the great doctor and his associates.
The "bummer" would be negative news from Dr. T tomorrow. Nobody is expecting that. Good "new" news would cause the stock to soar. Even the repackaging of "old" news with a "new-wrapper" could move the stock upward. Dr. T's comments are usually positive, but no one seems to have any pre-information. We will all have to wait for his comments, and the analysis afterwards by others.
You are correct about the 10+. Your time frame is very conservative; at the most a few months, and the least would be next week, depending on news from Mayo Clinic and Dr. Tefferi. The "science is too good", along with the results.
It seems to me that this stock could not be held in such a narrow range around $5 without a considerable amount of manipulation. The reasons are not obvious to me; also the legalities are not clear. Any FDA endorsement should cause a breakout. Most believe that is coming, but no one has a clue when that will happen.
The risk/reward ratio looks very promising. The downside per share is about $5, and the upside is about $95 or more (compare to Amgen). The chances of a Geron wipeout, at this point, in time look very remote.
There is no negative news coming about Imtelstat that has even been hinted about. The only question is, if the very positive news that we expect is ready for release. The channel has been from about $4.25 to $5.75 with $5 right in the middle. Anything under $5 looks like a (almost) sure bet, even for traders who have a horizon of about a week. $10 is still the Piper Jaffray number, on positive news and FDA support. That could happen anytime.
I believe that you are correct. The Mayo Clinic never has disappointed in clinical updates concerning Imetelstat.
Probably a good time to add to holdings. World events (Crimea) should have little, if anything, to do with the long term viability of Imetelstat, and cancer treatments.
For all of the reasons above (in the name of logic) March will be the take-off month for Geron. All of the arguments about the FDA withholding approval because of some "fatal-flaw" in Imetelstat or lack of sufficient data do not seem to be creditable, as new information is continually released. [The needs of dying patients, and remissions plus potential cures for those that are in earlier stages of these illnesses] will dominate all arguments from the anti-telomere lobby, in my opinion. The FDA is about to couple compassion, need, effectiveness, and safety into a responsible, accelerated approach, in my opinion, sometime in the month of March.