Geron has a very big credibility problem left over from the old days of hESC's and religious fanatics. There are still many that believe that Geron is doomed to failure, and that Imetelstat somehow has been greatly exaggerated or even faked. These opinions are controlling the stock price. Geron needs a super-hero-partner to clear the way, such as Norvatis, Gilead, Celgene, Roche, etc. Geron has too much potential to go it alone (cancer stemcells, telomeres, genetic swictching, immortal cells, ageing etc.). The pipeline is incredible. The yoyo market motions will be stooped by a partner.
In fact stemcells in general (cancer stemcells, immortal cells, ageing cells, telomeres, chromosomes, genetic switches, etc. ) are all tied together in ways that we are just beginning to understand. Geron is at the cutting edge in understanding life. A deep pocketed partner would bring Geron out if the wilderness, and enhance other dimensions of its potential.
The Geron name is associated with failure (hESC days) by some. A partner of the status of Novartis, Roche, Gilead or Celgene would restore Geron's reputation.
Nothing has changed in the stocks fundamentals that appears negative. I believe good, solid news is coming. The "fake, fraud" concept of Geron still gets a "thumbs-up" in the investment world of the shorts.
This peaks and valleys are a bit unnerving, but if the data continues to be good and the product is safe (for a blood cancer drug) there is no way to hold this stock down. I continue to believe that the FDA is properly cautious, but is the friend of the needy sick and therefore is also Geron's friend. This seems to be the time frame (next 30 days) for aggressive action from Geron, Mayo (to make the new data available) and the FDA (in a compassionate, accelerated mode) to act in the best interest of the cancer patients. The shorts will continue to have fun with their yoyo for awhile.
I see no reason to let people die, that apparently can be saved. Let's error on the side of life. Maine prefers death (what a twisted mind).
It seems to me, as I said before, that the FDA is not deaf and blind, and that commonsense, ethics and morals are all factors. Blackmarango is exactly right. Imetelstat works, is suitably safe, and is the only drug available for certain blood cancers (CR, PR, CI). Imetelstat offers the best hope for the living that are in "dying mode". I believe that Geron and the FDA are aware of the situation, but want to cover their hind sides with another round of confirming information (probably from Mayo), before some accelerated program is initiated. My best guess is that all of this will happen soon (less than 60 days I hope).
I still believe that a relatively safe medicine, with at least remissions and improvements and perhaps cures, when no other treatment of the same positive quality is available, trumps all other possibilities in the eyes of the blood cancer patient. The FDA should see it the same way, since dead is too late. We all await one more verification from new data.
If this drug is as good as it appears to be (CR,PR,CI, safety, Mayo, ASH, etc.), then I do not see how this drug can be kept from the cancer suffers. It would be inhumane. The FDA is not deaf and blind.
Good, accurate summary (Thanks). Long term investors have little to worry about, since the science, clinical results, safety profile and the potential pipeline all seem to be on their side. Now the "money issue" has been resolved for now, and deep-pocket associates are in the wings.
There is no $4 stock available, since it has all been absorbed by deep-pocketed financial groups. Geron is well funded, and can concentrate on clinical studies and new associations. Imetelstat is still the "crown-jewel" of its portfolio (safety, CR, PR, CI).
This could be the start of the steady uptrend that long term investors are hoping for. Imetelstat is already proven as far as I am concerned.
AP, Jan.29, 2014
This marks Lenovo's second high-profile deal this month. The company announced plans last week to buy a major piece of IBM Corp.'s computer server business for $2.3 billion.
Buying Motorola will enable Lenovo to join Apple Inc. as the only major technology companies with global product lines in PCs, smartphones and tablets, putting Lenovo in a better position to become a one-stop shop for companies to buy all their devices from the same vendor, said Forrester Research analyst Frank Gillett.
"This makes Lenovo a company to watch," Gillett said in an email. "The personal device manufacturer business is consolidating — and manufacturers must compete in all three device markets, plus emerging wearable categories, or get left out of the next market shift."
"All is well that ends well". Imetelstat is a scientific and medical success. That will not be reversed, and the stock price will soon be $10 (Piper Jaffary, Dr. Duncan). Geron will soon be a mid-cap company, with cash for trails, development and a deep-pocketed associate.
Have your fun. Nothing has changed for the worse in the science and the medical results, so you are "not a truth teller". Market manipulation has led to excessive "game playing". Either Imetelstat is a fraud (no evidence of that), or it is a 1st rate success (good evidence of that) , and possibly a huge success (a bit too early to know) that actually cures certain cancers, and is effective in treating others.
Several weeks to months of patience will lead to the $10 stock price predicted by Dr. Duncan at Piper Jaffray (and others). A Nobel Prize and Mayo Clinics successes, make this projected future event a high probability occurrence. Long term investors that can average down into this well defined channel ($4 to $6), will do very well.
The most sense is to sell about 40% of the company to a great drug company that already is involved in cancer research. These companies come to mind: Gilead, Novartis, Roche, Celgene, JNJ, Merck. In this way Geron gets the advantage of a pro with great resources and deep-pockets.
I have been convinced, by what has been published, that the Mayo and Imetestat combination is a winner for investors, investigators and patients. The "stock-price-games" will continue, until Geron breaks out of its market-channel ($4-$6) on the upside. This could be weeks or several months, but not years. The fundamental science and clinical medicine are very powerful, and cannot be ignored. Scarlett will make us all happy, but is negotiating behind closed doors in secrecy (best for long term investors, IMO).
CR, PR,CI, Mayo, ASH, no alternatives, FDA, new partners & money, good balance sheet, safe product, new studies.
We are talking months, not years. Fundamentals win.