No one has said anything about the Mayo clinical trials ( using Imetelstat) that have shown dangerous, unwelcome results. If "Damming Data" did exist we would have heard about it by now. Irish (patient input), Tefferi (Mayo input), and Scarlett (Geron input) would have shown some unhappiness with the results, yet the opposite seems to be true.
There are no conspiracies here, IMO. The FDA (overly cautious, slow, bureaucratic, perhaps influenced by some lobby) will soon get their act together, and back Mayo. Imetelstat appears to be effective and safe with healing properties that no other treatment offers. The hold will vanish, but the day is totally uncertain. My "pure conjecture" is before May 15.
"Conjecture"---This time it will be different, and we will learn something that will actually help investors. At least that is my hope. Geron cannot hide the facts any longer (for better or worse).
Geron (market) Is tied to market forces including interval-channel traders and hedge funds. Geron (Mayo) is tied to Mayo generated information and data about Imetelstat, that is derived from the clinical tests. Geron (market) is now dominating, but Geron (Mayo) has the longer term power. The FDA has the "key" that will unlock Geron (Mayo) power, and lead the stock much higher. When will the FDA turn the "key"--that is the question. They will turn it, but considerable patience and belief in Imetelstat is required.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This speaks about the future, and patents that can be enforced. Imetelstat has great interest to big pharma, both for its current proven properties, and its potential pipeline properties.
The May 1 Conference Call should tell us a lot. I believe you will see some close teamwork revealed (Geron, Mayo, FDA) to put Imetelstat on the path that can bring the greatest benefit to blood cancer patients. Rather than pulling in separate directions, all will be shown pulling in one direction (finally). Why should it be otherwise?
This is what I am expecting from the May I CC (part 2). "Recent events" certainly need some detailed discussion. The questions should be very probing, and the answers should be very precise.
***Geron`s management will also host (after the financial report) a conference call for analysts and investors on Thursday, May 1, 2014, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the company`s first quarter results and recent events.***
Finally we will see everyone pulling in the same direction for the success of Imetelstat. Some will say that I am a dreamer. I only expect positive results from updates of Mayo's clinical trials. We shall see.
Many new effective medicines are first developed with the help of animals. Zoetis excels in medicines that relate to the food chain, pet's health, and human health.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Tomorrow is the day for the CC, with questions and answers. My belief is that all of our timing question will be answered. Some may not like what they hear. I believe we will only get good information about Imetelstat from the continuing trials at Mayo Clinic.
Friday morning should be interesting.
Mayo is the controlling force in understanding the effectiveness and relative safety of Imetelstat. Mayo and the FDA work together on numerous projects. As far as I can tell, Mayo believes in Imetelstat. The FDA holds the "official-government-key" as far as general use (or non-use) in the USA, but Mayo has the knowledge and experience that will make Imetelstat a success (or not a success). That goes beyond the boundaries of the USA, and also into the conference rooms of large-global drug companies.
I still believe that Imetelstat is a good drug and a safe drug. I also believe that it is good investment, but the FDA timing is totally unpredictable. Geron will likely end up with a powerful partner for reasons that have been explored on this board. Only a negative report from Mayo could ruin Geron. That would require a total reversal.
As others have said: There is no bad news, and the hold or Imetelstat will be modified. We have no idea of when. Logic, and sick, dying patients, make me lean toward sooner rather than later. Tefferi is the main factor, and the best source of information.
Geron and The Mayo Clinic Working in Parallel to Release Clinical Hold of Imetelstat (Seeking Alpha--Fri, May 2)----All the information that is needed is in this article. The lifting of the FDA hold is assured (assuming honesty and objectivity, which I believe). My "conjecture" date is still May 15, but that is likely a bit premature. Sidesaddlex: Thanks for those critical paragraphs from the SA article.
You are wrong about that. The Seeking Alpha article (May, 2) is very promising, and is based upon the Geron CC (May 1). In addition, I have complete confidence in Mayo Clinic and their statements.
Geron has struggled with Imetelstat, in spite Mayo Clinic's full support, and a world class drug. They need an affective partner to get this drug into the market place, where it in sorely needed.
From the data that I have seen, there is the a strong statistical probability that some patients that have prepared for "physician-assisted euthanasia" will have remissions or cures. That would obviously also benefit Geron.
Of course it is only temporary. SA article also says you must be in the stock now, because when the hold is modified (as they say) there will be an instant triple. That could happen next week.
It is now obvious that no patient has quit treatments with Imetelstat because of liver problems, and some treatments have continued for more than 3 years (Scarlett & SA). The FDA has been "dutifully cautious" and has no reason to continue the hold in its present form. Mayo Clinic holds the data, patients and good medical sense. Geron, Mayo and the FDA are on the same page, and it all appears good for Imetelstat and the cancer patients.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
MENLO PARK, Calif., May 7, 2014 - Geron Corporation today announced that John Scarlett, M.D., President and Chief Executive Officer, will present an overview of the company at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2014 Health Care Conference in Las Vegas, NV. The presentation is scheduled to occur on Thursday, May 15th at 12:40 p.m. Pacific Time.
A live webcast of the presentation will be available through the Investor Relations pages of Geron`s website or at http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/baml/healthcare2014/id83308160094.cfm. Following the live presentation, the webcast will be archived and available for replay at the same address for a period of 30 days