The stock will move up when a big-drug relationship is announced, which could come is several forms (partner, merger, buy-out) , but needs to happen because of Geron's limitations. Scarlett is there to make it happen.
MC!---It is not a novel thought, but it is probably a correct thought. Mayo credibility, and the very positive ASH presentation should have kept the stock over $6, and (as some brokerages have indicated) closer to $10.
I don't know way you object, since, from time to time, you have engaged in extreme repetition (not pleasant in your choice of words). I think we are on the same side, and I understand your fear and frustration. I am ready for a deep-pocked, major drug company to take the lead, in what I believe to be a medical breakthrough. Let's both hope that I am right.
There only a few ways that Geron can be kept down (all are possible, but I think mostly wrong)
1. Geron is not trusted, and is guaranteed to disappoint
2. Imetelstat has some major negative properties that have not been revealed
3. Competition from other cancer drugs will make Imetelstat irrelevant
4. Manipulation is happening in ways we do not understand, that will sink the company
You are wrong. Big pharm is in the wings, IMO. Scarlett is "giddy" and may be getting "greedy". We know he is supposed to be a tough negotiator, hired to sell the company or find a strong partner. This will be resolved, at the latest by Valentine Day (probably before). Imetelstat, IMO, is a miracle-drug. Patience seems the best approach, as long as all of the good features of Imetelstat hold, as revealed at ASH by Mayo.
Mayo (also Hopkins, Cleveland, etc.) is an independent clinic, and is in a position to combine drugs, if that seems promising. Cancer is not one disease, but many that are capable of mutating. This is early days, and all combinations (symptoms, remissions, cures), and relations are possible. I believe that capitalism makes "coming together" more likely.
If Imetelstat holds true to its "miracle-drug" review (CR,PR,CI in several blood cancers), and maintains its very good safety profile, there is an excellent chance that it will be considered for FDA's new "breakthrough" status. Imetelstat could be on the market very soon. Jakafi may be a good combination, trial choice.
Imeletstat, so far, has an excellent safety profile. Since this drug has shown benefits for more than one blood cancer (CR, PR, CI), there is isn't much that can hold it back. It works, where no other drug is effective, and it is relatively safe.
You are wrong. Companies are competing for Imetelstat: Roche, Gilead, Celgene, Novartis, JNJ. No one (without inside information) knows what path Geron will take (partner or buy-out). This drug will come to market soon because of the new "breakthrough" rules at the FDA. It has an excellent safety profile, and has been found to be effective in several blood cancers (CR, PR, CI). Also, the related pipeline and possible combination drugs are huge. There is the possibility that there will be reversals, but so far (Mayo at ASH) the medical results are good. There is a Nobel Prize behind this research, so the science is sound.
All you have to know is that Obama is loved at BK. He hasn't been perfect, so his presidential grade, IMO, should be A-.
Small stocks are easily manipulated. Geron seems to be in a channel ($4.50 to $6) and will eventually breakout to the upside, IMO. Imetelstat is now a proven drug (CR, PR, CI) with talk of cures. Since this drug has an excellent safety profile (to date), many will wish to test it alone or in combination (cancer, ageing, stemcells, etc.).
Most believe that Geron will team up with a deep-pocketed drug company. This has been a very quiet period on that account. Scarlett is definitely exploring the opportunities with more than one possible suitor, and by all indications, he is the right man at the right time.
This is a waiting game. Obviously nothing is a sure thing without inside information, but the public news appears to be very promising and encouraging. Geron has competition, so one has to believe in the healing power, science, safety and the telomere story. A coming event is the JP Morgan bio-tech conference in January. Be patient and enjoy the holidays.
Let me be clear. I am convinced, by the evidence that is publicly available, that Imetelstat has unusual and unique healing powers. The fact that this has been demonstrated by a creditable organization (Mayo) in a small group of very sick patients, to my way of thinking, is outstanding and worth an investment. That is why I believe it is a proven medicine. Obviously, the FDA will have much more to say about this, including possible breakthrough or fast-track status.
My major issue, that would that could ultimately wreck Geron, is the safety profile. So far that has not been a problem and has been a very positive factor, but, without a perfect crystal ball, there is no way to know about future safety and reversals. I am hopeful, and I am waiting for an updated report at the JP Morgan Bio-tech Conference in January. IMO, Geron should now be in the $6 to $10 range as suggested by several brokerages.
When you think about it, there is no reason, that I know about, why Scarlett would not go for the fastest track possible. As has been discussed on this board in detail, Imetelstat meets all the criteria (unique, working and safe)--even the highest "breakthrough" category. Chip, it seems to me would be remiss, if he isn't trying. Geron seems to have 3 possible choices: go-it-alone, partner-up, buyout. Fast-tracking would be an advantage on any of these paths. My conclusion is that Chip is trying and we will hear very soon about this (less than 30 days), and the stock will bump up at least to $8.
Hologic says it has been in talks with former Stryker Corporation CEO MacMillan about taking the CEO's role since late October, finally concluding that "his track record of delivering strong financial results and creating shareholder value makes him the ideal chief executive officer for Hologic." While at Stryker, MacMillan helped that company nearly triple its revenues, while Stryker's share price "significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index" during his tenure. After leaving Stryker, MacMillan spent about a year serving as CEO of biomedical research firm sBioMed, LLC
There are obviously people out there that has no confidence in Geron, and find the Mayo-Ash-telomere story a "bridge too far", and basically a fraud. IMO, they will be proven wrong. Imetelstat works (CR, PR, CI, plus possible cures & safety). I believe that this quiet-period, will end in a new deep-pocketed partner being announced, and some type of fast track status for Imetelstat from the FDA. The next big event appears to be the JP Morgan Bio-tech Conference, but Scarlett may give up a few more hints before then. Piper Jaffrey seems to be on top of events, and they are still positive.
I know MAINE's objection to "breakthrough" status is (paraphrase), that they have not tested enough patients. However, I believe, that when one finds a drug that is safe, and "works" on a sufficient of people (even a small number), that is when we need to use the "breakthrough" status to save as many people as possible. Earfool has shown that Imetelstat meets all of the "breakthrough" criteria. Scarlett must be working on it. "Breakthrough" was invented recently to give common sense a chance to prevail.
" "lws2000", as much as I would like to see Geron receive "fast track" or "breakthrough" status, "common sense" tells me that won't happen with only an 18-patient test.....and, especially, after one of the 18 patients died from causes linked to Imetelstat toxicity." (from MAINE)
I did, but I didn't hear this. As I remember, 2 very sick people died, but there was no link to Imetelstat. Perhaps, you are mistaken, or have a different interpretation. Others, I am sure, will comment.
Thanks Beavertail for the explanation, "The two discontinuations were from unrelated death and disease progression. Later this statement was qualified by explaining that the one patent of the two that died had pre-existing thrombocytopenia (low platelets) and was given a dose of Imetelstat who subsequently developed intracranial hemorrhage when his platelet counts dropped even further".
This tells me that the one death in question had to do with an unrelated pre-existing condition (low platelet count) and the good safety profile of Imetelstat is still in tact.