It is all coming together. Mayo Clinic will be in the spotlight, for better or worse (better, IMO). The reason for Dr. T's dual roles will become more obvious. The FDA's reason for any continuing holds requires an explanation. The science and medical successes of IMET will be detailed. Others besides Mayo, will talk about IMET potential (NCI, Yale, Amgen and others).
Note the hedge funds reaction to good-IMET-news (for example irishitrader52 imposter, for irishtrader52). The hedge funds, up to now, have been very successful in controlling the PPS. We will soon see if ASH abstracts makes a difference.
It doesn't have anything to do with Mayo Clinic, IMET, ASH, or long term investors. What else is left? (hedge funds, day traders). We will have to wait for the ASH abstracts to continue this discussion. It is a horrible stock, with what appears to be a great cancer drug. How does that play out?
What does it mean: the same as a cure, as good as a cure, equivalent to a cure, appears to be a cure, tentatively a cure, almost a cure, indistinguishable from a cure? Anyone of these are acceptable, but they are not exactly the same. Also, it does not apply to all cases. Hopefully, the ASH abstracts will start to put this into perspective.
"Tantamount to a Cure" is the battle cry!
There are hedge-funds, naked-shorts, and day-traders that have controlled the PPS (Geron), since the FDA imposed their low-level-liver-holds. The Mayo-hold has been released, but the Geron-hold still lingers in endless limbo. In addition, sophisticated computer programs have controlled narrow price channels, that have prevented a PPS breakout to the upside. ASH abstracts, ASH presentations and the good medicine (IMET MF studies) should soon overwhelm their software-computer advantage. This tug-of-war is still going on, but Mayo, led by Dr. T's dual roles, could soon lead us to a significantly higher PPS. I don't believe that Mayo will disappoint us at ASH, since they have already told us that (in some cases) IMET treatment is "Tantamount to a Cure". I believe that means that it is equivalent to a cure, with some reservations (mostly the passage of time has been too short to know for sure).
1. Complete Remission
2. No return of symptoms for a period of years (5 years perhaps)
3. No medication (IMET) after a period of time.
4. Alternative: Chronic condition (near cure) if IMET is required forever (similar to blood pressure or cholesterol medicine). This could be considered equivalent or tantamount to a cure.
A chronic form of the disease where all the symptoms disappear, but otherwise good health is maintained, is perhaps the best that we can hope for with certain types of cancer. That would be a major breakthrough.
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Now (finally) the Geron part of the hold has been released, and IMET is free of the "liver-burden-hold" . The FDA is no longer an albatross around Geron's neck, and the full potential of IMET will be realized.
With Mayo Clinic at ASH represented by Dr. T (dual representative for Mayo & Geron), there should be some lively discussions about partners, mergers and acquisitions.
Dr. Tefferi's dual role at Mayo and Geron, plus his good relations with the FDA made this possible. We all knew that Geron had administrative problems, but they were mitigated, and the lingering-liver-hold was leased.
Mayo certainly has a vested interest here. Geron owns IMET, but Mayo proved that it is safe and effective in humans. Mayo and Dr. T will be deeply involved in all future IMET projects, including new partners. It looks like IMET will soon be available for all patients that need it.
I believe that it means that is some MF cases (how many?) there are complete remissions, that have all the visible properties of a cure. It is far too early to tell if the cancer is actually cured, or, if at some later date, it will return.
The difference between a complete remission (CR) and a cure (MF for example) is the passage of time. "Tantamount" can mean "equal to" or "close to" a cure. If the cancer does not return in 5 years (for example), and IMET is withdrawn in two years (for example), by most definitions we would have a "cure". If IMET has to be taken for the rest of one's life (like high blood pressure or cholesterol), but the CR is maintained, then the cancer is chronic, but that also could be "Tantamount to a Cure".
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Moscone Center, San Francisco, California
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I still believe that Scarlett and Tefferi have coordinated their game-plan, with Scarlett following Dr. T's lead. Putting all data in one basket for the FDA was brilliant (Dr. T's dual role). We will see what ASH abstracts bring.
Mayo Clinic' reputation is on the line. My bet is that they will not disappoint patients or investors.
What does "tantamount" really mean? (close to, equal to, looks like, indistinguishable from, no different than, somewhat similar to ???). Was there hype in that statement, or is IMET near to a miracle drug?