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Micron Technology, Inc. Message Board

m.moc63 72 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 11, 2016 9:10 AM Member since: Jan 9, 2014
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  • m.moc63 by m.moc63 Feb 11, 2016 9:10 AM Flag

    In a previous post I mentioned that price action had to regress toward the mean at the 20 dma. This is accomplished in one of two ways. Either price action moves up or the 20 dma moves down so they can meet. However, in this case, they met half way. Price action moved up to 11.55 and the 20 dma moved down to 11.55 so they could meet. MU then found resistance at the 20 dma on Feb 4 and again on Feb 5. On both days, it closed below the 20 dma.

    I also mentioned a Pipe pattern that had a target of 15 provided MU could break thru any resistance area that stood in its way. Unfortunately, MU met resistance.

    According to the 2 yr wkly chart, MU still remains in a downtrend. There is a Falling Channel chart pattern located between 6.52 and 17.30.The FC is a bearish pattern. Inside he FC, there is a Falling Wedge, now located between 6.52 and 12.80. The figures mentioned are your support and resistance areas for these specific patterns. There is candlestick support at 9.31. MU must hold this support area.

    I should also mention that on the 2 yr wkly chart, it appears that a Death Cross may be imminent. You do not want to see a Death Cross on the weekly chart. It only implies further weakness. Watch to see if the 50 dma moves below the 200 dma.

    By the way, on the 3 mo d chart, there is also a Falling Wedge located between 7.49 and 11.18. The FW is usually a bullish chart pattern, but 20% of the time it fails. Watch to see if it can break thru 11.18. GL

    Moc

  • Reply to

    CHART

    by xquestor Feb 1, 2016 5:38 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Feb 3, 2016 9:30 AM Flag

    Well then, XQ, I hope it breaks thru your Falling Channel because when that happens, it will also break thru my Falling Wedge as they share the same trendline. LOL..........as I said, your FC is inside my FW chart pattern.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    CHART

    by xquestor Feb 1, 2016 5:38 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Feb 2, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    MU will reach 13.50 only if it breaks thru 13.11. Your Falling Channel is inside a larger chart pattern on the 2 yr wkly chart.........the Falling Wedge. The Falling Wedge has the potential to contain it (stop it). It must break thru the top trendline at 13.11. Easy as A-B-C.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    CHART

    by xquestor Feb 1, 2016 5:38 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Feb 1, 2016 7:18 PM Flag

    XQ, please specify your time frame. Although I know what you are saying, others may not. It looks like EOD chart pattern on the daily chart is a Bull Flag. If I am right, regression toward the mean at the 20 dma (11.84) will probably be reached.

    On the 2 yr wkly chart, there is a Falling Wedge now located between 6.75 and 13.11. These figures are now your support and resistance areas for this pattern. My target for the Pipe pattern is 15; but the trendline at 13.11 needs to be breached. Watch 13.11.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    Update 1/30/16

    by m.moc63 Jan 30, 2016 9:39 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Feb 1, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    You're welcome. Yeah, I hope I'm right also. LOL.........There is a trendline on the weekly chart at 13.11. This will be a strong resistance area. Watch to see if it is breached.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    Update 1/30/16

    by m.moc63 Jan 30, 2016 9:39 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Feb 1, 2016 10:44 AM Flag

    You're welcome.

    Moc

  • m.moc63 by m.moc63 Jan 30, 2016 9:39 PM Flag

    On the 3 mo d chart, MU was inside a Falling Wedge which is usually a bullish chart pattern. It kept bumping against the upper trendline until it finally broke thru it.

    In a previous post, I mentioned that MU needs to regress toward the mean. In other words, it needs to meet up with the 20 dma. The 20 dma is now located at 12.

    On the 1 yr wkly chart, MU formed a bullish bottom Pipe candlestick pattern. On a weekly chart, a Pipe is especially strong. Pipes with uneven lows tend to perform better than Pipes with even lows. MU has an uneven Pipe. They usually play out 83% of the time. Target is about 15 provided MU can break thru any resistance area that stands in its way.

    Moc

  • m.moc63 by m.moc63 Jan 22, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    testing, testing

  • MU has gotten too far away from the 20 dma now located at 13.57. It must regress toward the mean. This will happen in one of two ways. MU must either wait for the 20 dma to catch up, or MU will move up to meet up with the 20 dma. Since MU is oversold, I vote for the 2nd one. Not a guarantee, just a guess.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    #$%$ Posts

    by enderjedi7 Jan 17, 2016 10:43 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 17, 2016 5:29 PM Flag

    I hear you. It's pretty annoying, but what I really hate is when yahoo blocks my posts or eliminates them. Now that is really annoying. I tried to post one day like 6 times, and they kept blocking me.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    m.moc

    by original_matrix1 Jan 16, 2016 5:27 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 16, 2016 8:42 PM Flag

    Yes wdblawgrow, some stocks were sending warnings that something was about to happen like INTL and MU. I said a year ago that MU would bleed; but as long as 13.50 held, there was hope. Unfortunately, 13.50 did not hold.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    m.moc

    by original_matrix1 Jan 16, 2016 5:27 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 16, 2016 8:34 PM Flag

    Yes, I believe it has topped. The SPX and the DOW topped in May, 2015. The NAZ topped in July 2015 and the NDX topped in Dec 2015. They have not been able to make new highs. The bear market was confirmed when the DOW lost 391 points on Friday. It was not able to break thru a trendline. The DOW was inside a Rising Wedge which is a bearish chart pattern. This pattern usually plays out 80% of the time, but there is a 20% rate failure. You may get occasional bullish momentum shifts to the up side; but overall, I believe the market is headed down.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    m.moc

    by original_matrix1 Jan 16, 2016 5:27 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 16, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    matrix, I believe you are right. The 2 yr wkly chart indicates that MU still remains in a Falling Wedge pattern . This is a bullish chart pattern 80% of the time; but 20% of the time, the pattern fails. The EOW candlestick is a Black Crow which is bearish. There can be 1, 2, or 3 Black Crows, but there are usually 3 Black Crows. Assuming, there are 3 Black Crows, then yes I believe MU might reach the low 6-7's.......and then assuming that MU then forms a Bear Flag at time point, then you might be looking at 4 or 5.

    On the 3 mo d chart, MU is oversold. While MU is still in a downtrend, there are occasional shifts to the up side.

    By the way, It looks to me that the market has topped.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    m.moc

    by iskie3ve Jan 14, 2016 7:10 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 14, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Jet, I believe you are referring to the candlestick that occurred on Tues 1/12/16. It is actually a Harami Cross which is stronger than just a Harami candlestick. It did have the potential to cause a reversal to the upside, but it was not confirmed. The EOD candlestick for today looks like a Dragonfly Doji. There was candlestick support at 11.40, and it looks like traders found it, and they pushed price back up. There is only a 6 cents difference between the open and close. The Dragonfly Doji represents indecision. It also has the potential to cause a reversal to the upside; but once again, confirmation is required. By the way, MU still remains oversold. MU moved up because the Aroons went bullish. If one indicator leads, the others may follow. GL

    Moc

  • Reply to

    Update 1/12/15

    by m.moc63 Jan 12, 2016 2:49 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 14, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    You're welcome and thank you, xpot.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    m.moc

    by iskie3ve Jan 14, 2016 7:10 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 14, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    On the 1 d 5 min chart, yes, there were 3 Black Crows. At this time on the 3 mo d chart, there appears to be 2 Black Crows. This can change by EOD so it's best to wait until EOD to see if there are actually 2 Black Crows. On the 2 yr wkly chart, it appears that there might be 1 Black Crow. Better hope there will not be 3 Black Crows on the weekly because you might see single price figures. By the way, you can have 1, 2, or 3 Black Crows, but there are usually 3 of them with the last one sometimes turning traitor. That is, the last one starts out being bearish but then turns bullish.

    Moc

  • Reply to

    Update 1/12/15

    by m.moc63 Jan 12, 2016 2:49 PM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 12, 2016 10:30 PM Flag

    Sounds like a good plan, matrix, and looks like you have done well. GL

    Moc

  • Reply to

    The Aroons

    by m.moc63 Jan 11, 2016 11:38 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 12, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    Thanks cheetah.

    Moc

  • m.moc63 by m.moc63 Jan 12, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    MU still remains in a downtrend. On the 2 yr wkly chart, it is still in a Falling Channel now located between 7.67 and 18.55. These new figures are now your support and resistance areas for this pattern, but they will change as the pattern develops. The FC is a bearish chart pattern.

    However, inside the FC, there are still 2 bullish chart patterns, a Falling Wedge and a bullish Island Reversal. The Falling Channel is now located between 7.67 and 14.48. These new figures now become your support and resistance areas for this pattern, and these figures will also change as the pattern develops. The bullish Island Reversal still needs to connect to the mainland. To do this, a gap at 24.02 needs to be filled. I might mention that 13.50 was a triple bottom for this pattern. Since it broke, there is a possibility that this pattern will move lower.

    Still looking at the weekly chart, keep an eye on the 50 and 200 wma. I believe that the weekly is setting up for a Death Cross if the 50 moves below the 200 wma. A crossover will imply further weakness. You do not want to see a Death Cross on the weekly.

    On the 3 mo d chart, the Aroons released a little steam this morning, but I do not think it was enough. The RSI 14 indicates MU is oversold. GLTA

    Moc

  • Reply to

    The Aroons

    by m.moc63 Jan 11, 2016 11:38 AM
    m.moc63 m.moc63 Jan 12, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    You won't believe this cheetah, but when MU reached 15.08 on Jan 56h, it actually broke thru the top trendline of the Falling Wedge that we discussed in a previous post. For a minute there, it looked like MU had broken out, but it closed back inside the Falling Wedge. It was the closing that counted.

    Moc

MU
10.02+0.33(+3.41%)Feb 12 4:00 PMEST