We apparently have some disagreement on MACK.
They had been out of MACK for some time and at times shorting it, danm it! To them the chart is negative currently. They have covered their short on IDRA and went long there big time.
They feel the CC will be a non-event, if anything, potentially negative given the high expectations of everything.
They feel that there will not be any meaningful update on MM 121 which may disappoint some people into selling, thinking that SNF may have issues with the current data which may put in doubt the entire MM 121 platform.
They remain upbeat about MM 398. However, they want to stay out for now and reevaluate after a month.
I am in the film business and currently travelling a lot. Cannot post much. I have all the shares and will see what will develop.
MACK will likely double by July 4th and triple by year end. His funds and other Wall Street associates continue to buy in this dip. (They closed their short position on IDRA recently and made a bundle there) They "sense" good deals coming up for rest of the MACK pipeline besides stellar MM-398 data and commercial launch in mid-late 2015.
His only concern is possible financing toward the end of the year so keep that in mind.
Have a great Sunday people!
Yes, as you have pointed out, patients this sick do not make the trial delayed this long--4 months so far!-- unless MM-398 is working. This is not a case where a nap may take away a headache.
Yes, His funds have access to an elite circle of medical specialists who are basically chairs or retired chairs of some of the top medical institutions around the country. They are of counsel per diem for their advice and opinions. To fly an expert in often costs10k per day but he said it is worth it many times over. They have given him the green light on MACK in reference to MM-398 trial outcome. One of the pharmacology experts who analyzed the available data on MM-398 agrees with my assessment that the dosing schedule on the combo arm may play a key role in this outcome. Medical students in the States study a textbook penned by him in their first year pharmacology course. They do not have inside information, but they have veteran expert opinions and they have big brains so they don't need to cheat. That is why hedgies often make big money because they don't mind paying big dollars for the most reliable opinions out there. That's is why they are called the buy side!
let's leave out the control arm of 5#$%$ and leuco and look closely at the other 2 arms,,,mm 398 by itself, the single arm if you will, and mm 398 plus 5#$%$ and leuco, the combo arm.
the single mm 398 arm is infused at 120mg/m2 once every 3 weeks.
the combo mm 398 arm is infused at 80mg/m2 every 2 weeks.
as you can see, over time, the total dosage is the same.
but, pharmcodynamically, those 2 may be very different.
i think the reason for the lower dose and higher dosing frequency for the combo mm398 is because it is less taxing to the body when given along with 5#$%$ and leuco. perhaps beyond this design, there is more to it.
i suspect the combo arm approach, lower dose but higher dosing frequency may allow higher and more sustained iritonecan level at the tumor cell level. from MACK, apparently pancreatic cancer environment is very hypoxic and full of surrounding stromal barriers. a high dose bolus into that environment may not be as effective as a lower dose more continuous attack to infiltrate into the tumor cell. the military analogy will be like,,,blasting big cannons is often not as effective at changing a regime as corrupting the enemy structure internally through spies and leverages.
so going forward, i think the combo arm will far outperform the other 2 arms (although the single mm 398 will do better than the control anyway) because
1. there are synergistic additive power among the compounds when used in combo.
2. the dosing schedule may lead to a higher average drug uptake and sustainability at the tumor cell level. apparently macrophages engulf the lysosomal mm 398 like food and deliver it into the tumor cell. the combo arm arrangement may establish an environment where whenever the macrophages are ready to eat up something, the lysosomal iritonecan is more readily available, making the combo arm drug delivery system efficient and more efficacious. result: stage pancreatic patients much live longer and MACK investors much richer.
It is overvalued to begin with and much more so with the Celgene angle. Value players like me will find opportunities to trade against the idealistic majority who is holding for the double, triple.
Even today, based on the stock action, it seems that many agree with me.
Any more short term catalysts left? If not, it will drift again like earlier this week.
One billion MC for phase 1s? Oh come on!
No, not later when the stock goes up and down.
Everyone of you that held on from 42 to 36 should be dragged out into the woods and fed to the bears!
Go see an eye doctor and get the Celgene image out of your lens!
They like MACK pipeline. A big name partner is shaping up. Deal closing soon.
Advice heeded. I think Mack has much more to go than Omed.
Be careful that all the good news associated with Celg has already been built into the price.
MC way too high IMO. Way too early for buyout.
Way too much credit given to Omed's connection to big pharms. Entire hype built on just phase 1! Are you kidding me?
Back under 30!
With its connections and money, this stock trades like a boss's buttler!
It screams very overvalued at this point. Very likely back down below 30 to get real and cool off.