Achillion Pharma (NASDAQ: ACHN) tapped session highs in late morning trading Friday, up over 6%. The stock caught the attention of traders in June after Merck said will acquire peer Idenix Pharmaceuticals, fueling speculation it will be next.
Earlier today, Wells Fargo analyst Brian Abrahams discussed the stock in a note to clients after meeting with management. The note says all appears to be proceeding smoothly in the ph.Ib study for nuc 3422, and he doesn't believe there have been any safety/CV concerns apparent in single doses up to 500mg.
Comfort on 3422 safety will be key for future success and for driving external interest, added the analyst.
How much do you pay for those calls?. Remember 85% of time, call sellers make money versus call buyers. I can't give you further advice. If there is a deal before the option expiry date in September; you are slated to make a bundle. Caveat Emptor my friend!
Those 'Smart Monies' had the same conviction In Idenix just to be wiped out completely. Why don't you ask the 35% short of Idenix's float to give you an explanation.
In the month or end of August most likely. All depends how Achillion wants to release Data sets. It was stated after the 8-week treatment duration; the company would want to follow up with a 6-week shorter duration. Don't know exactly whether they want to wait for both trial duration or release one Data Set at a time.
8 week trial started early in May. Done in July. It takes for to 6 weeks to collect results from patients. The Full Data Set will also include adverse event if any, drop out rate or discontinuation etc... Anyway, won't be too long from now.
Achillion is inching closer to release Data for the Crossover studies with Sofosbuvir and Ach-3102. If the Data show 100% cure rate; it will prove once for all the company second generation NS5A is truly one of the best in class. Don't have to wait for long. A surge in pps is very possible and rightfully so.
One thing differentiates myself and others is I have been in this stock for many years when 1625 was still in its Infantile Stage. Being long, short or just trading the drought in any stock is the Norm in this Market. Where the Hatred comes from beat me?.
I have never said nor gave an outlandish valuation ( the 40, 50 etc...). I don't know until there is a Deal in the making. Meantime, the science is there and I do believe this company is much better poised than it was 2 years ago when the former CEO with his Pitch 'Grin from ear to ear' while he cashed his million in options. The guy is worthless and still is these days.
You do what you see fit. I am not selling until I see full valuation.
First off I don't hate retail shorts. One thing I would want you to consider is the very near future of the crossover studies combining Solvadi and Ach-3102. The eight-week trial is completed, followed by 6-week duration therapy. Hedge Funds who shorted the stock are banking on the ability of Achillion to compete and catch up with the likes Gilead, Abbvie, Merck and BMS who got approval for their two DAAs regimen in Japan today for treating HepC-1b patients.
I agreed Achillion is by far the underdog so was Idenix when those Hedge Funds were betting Huge they won't succeed....so 35% of Idenix float were shorted heavily. Look at the stiff penalties those people are paying now.
Your gain in shorting ACHN is limited; your Losses could be exponential. Think about it!
ill advice to others dude!. You bet the farm last month and shorted 23k @6.89. You stated another 8k this morning @7.63. Your average up on your shorts stands @7.081 on 31k. What quick buck are you talking about??LOL. By day end, this stock will be back to the 7.50+ range. Watch it.
I will re-post this message for Finchfuller so just maybe his tolerance to daily fluctuation is more bearable.
First sentence should read : The FDA could lift the Hold on 1625 in 2Q 2014....
Unfortunately quite a few folks have thrown in the towel for many reasons ( Cut losses and moved on or forced to cut losses because they were on margins ). To tell you the Truth; it was also disheartening to me for those long months. If it wasn't for RA Capital's commitment to the stock, I would never have averaged my large holding down to 4 bucks. When my portfolio was in deep Red, I would spend a tremendous amount of my week-end time digging deeper into any available resources regarding this Company. Hope this Analogy helps!
The one I am aware of was trial dubbed -007 where SVR12 showed 100% cure rate even for the patient who had all 6 baseline mutations. When you are a CEO of a Company; you really need to be fair and subjective about what you said; otherwise, you may make sound like an Jackarse!
This is what Jay Luly, Ceo of Enanta commented regarding recent acquisition of Idenix vis a vis Achillion:
'But Luly provided Benzinga some insight. He began by noting that Achillion’s share price has been very depressed recently.
“I think in part it is because they had a stretch of some not-so-good news," he said. "They went on clinical hold with one of their molecules, another one of their programs showed data that was not the strongest that people had hoped for, so their stock went way down.”
What another of their programs???. Are you related to Adam Gefvert Mr. Luly?LOL.
Then I need to remind you to spend some time listening to the JMP presentation now in archive. I hope to see you make more than a 'buck' by staying a few more months in ACHN.
End of last quarter(3/31/20140) showed RA Capital Management LL held 3 million shares in CALL which they haven't filed, that's 30,000 contracts and @ what month and strike price?. I don't know because they haven't filed. But guessing by the timing of those calls they bought when the stock traded in the low 2; RA Capital is slated to return million of dollars if they sold those calls last Friday ( Double/Triple witching Day ).
A lot of people also bought over 8 too. Clearly the 10 of millions shares traded didn't come from me and you. So far filings showed QVT and RA Capital were doing what any Funds or traders would do. Took some off the table, locked in profit and maybe reload down the road. Funds need to show a return to their own Investors. In the case of RA Capital and their partner Blackwell; buying shares in the low 2s and selling just a fraction in the 8s are a right thing to do.
Going back to your question. How much Tolerance/Conviction do you have in Achillion?. Next is your Financial situation. Could you average down?. At one point to be exact on June 6th, my portfolio still showed a Huge Paper Loss and If I didn't average down when RA Capital jumped in; I would still be in the Red.
Again I need to bring to your attention regarding those 10 of millions shares traded for the last 2 weeks.
Towards the middle of August, I will know exactly who were selling, new buys or accumulating.
LOL! there the Fuss about RA this time. Last time, shorts got complacent and shorted more based on QVT's 1.8 million shares sold. Again they want to spread FUD and make a big deal this without knowing the fact RA Capital bought the Majority about 19% of their Holding under 3 bucks. Funny about the shorts arguments. They think Institutions/Funds/Insiders aren't entitled to book profits......Only 'Them' can.
Form 4 Filing (6/20/2014)
Out of the 800,000 shares sold last Friday:
The securities sold include 668,000 shares for RA Capital Healthcare Fund, L.P. (the "Fund") and 132,000 shares for an account owned by Blackwell Partners, LLC (the "Blackwell Account").
Out of the other 80,000 shares:
The securities sold include 66,800 shares for RA Capital Healthcare Fund, L.P. (the "Fund") and 13,200 shares for an account owned by Blackwell Partners, LLC (the "Blackwell Account").
RA Capital 13G:
Aggregate Amount Beneficially Owned by Each Reporting Person
Percent of Class Represented by Amount
RA Capital LLC.
Let me ask you this, are shorts still holding their Breath in VRTX this morning?LOL. Turning from Pale to Purple by now. That said the smart shorts can always scalp by shorting any stock. But there are always the stubborn ones who think by averaging up on their shorts would bring them profits such as those in Vertex this morning. They won't post much as Margin Calls are up the sore behind. You short Biotech stocks, your gains are minimum but your losses are exponential. Talking about averaging up on shorts, Mr. Sidelurker bet the farm shorting 23k of ACHN @ 6.89!LMAO.
Dr. Deshpande is more upbeat and concise during his presentation. I can tell he has been working on his speech lately. Easier to understand and gets his point across. I was pounding the table for a while when touching on the subject of SOF+3102, the statement was ; results will be released in October (WTF?). But towards the end, he corrected himself and restated Results will be towards the end of August......What a Relief!
In Viral Load Reduction ( 4 weeks into treatment ) would set this stock in another upward movement. Very Achievable. Remember these patients are non-cirrhotic, non IL28B CT or TT type.