Watch for it - it is coming.
From the broad based strokes - the total available market (TAM) is about 15,000 boys in the U.S. and calculating it at $400K/patient (per Forbes & TheStreet, that puts the annual value of Eteplirsen at about $6B. That is a monster number (and nobody is pretending anybody will ever get 100% market share, but patients have no other choice). It will be reached much faster than many other meds, since this really is the only effective treatment.
Exons 53 & 45 could triple the potential value of Eteplirsen. So the real question is what is the total available market? While you can argue that Eteplirsen could target 30,000 boys worldwide, that isn't realistic, so we have to just look at the USA. We can argue $300K vs. $400K/patient, but apparently insurance companies have already agreed to numbers in that range, so that helps as well.
I estimate $100/share @ Adcom approval before Thanksgiving 2015, $175/share by mid-year 2016 (by July1) and $300/share by year end 2016. I do think that will plateau at that point and possibly pull back, but not until we cross the $300 threshold. So I'd have sell orders in at that point - because Eteplirsen sales will likely be stabilizing and will need another catalyst (good news on exon 53 or 45) to propel it higher.
Mark this post. Once approved and sales start flowing, Eteplirsen will have a very nice run to more than $300/share based on actual sales and sales growth, before topping out when sales hit peak based on percentage of patient population.
2-weeks left, 10 business days, until we should hear the FDA has formally accepted the NDA on Eteplirsen. Hopefully in that same news release it will be granted breakthrough technology designation and accelerated approval.
That will be a MONSTER day for this stock. 2-weeks and counting.
Start the counter at 10 please...
Not necessarily. The risk adjusted value of SRPT is what is holding it back. As that risk is diminished incrementally, it will realize a fuller valuation. It happens incrementally though, and there is still risk, which is what holds it back. Otherwise we would be over $100 already.
Keep in mind that not everybody trades in real time immediate- though some do I will admit. Many people set up the order, set a limit price, check the news, place the order which is then verified, and if you have Schwab as your broker like I do - it may take you a LONG time to get your order placed and filled. So the rapid up/down you watch is part of that pattern, matching all the outstanding buys and sell orders. If this stock had 10x the volume, you'd see a much tighter range, but given where it is, this level of "static" is pretty normal.
If all is straight and true, this stock should be valued at $60-$70/share now. If some are waiting for NDA acceptance, then maybe discount that part to $50 although that seems relatively certain at this point. It should already be rising on the likelihood of Adcom and approval.
Overall market conditions are bad which may be holding it back. Hopefully the crisis of the day will resolve, China, Greece, whatever, and this will begin to realize some of the underlying value that is there.
While I'd like to see it, it is extremely unlikely given the FDAs ultra conservative nature. That's a contradiction though since the FDA would rather approve no drugs rather than a harmful one, it appears they are going against their tradition in approving Drisapersen. Unless they are letting BMRN through the hurdles only to deny them at the AdCom.
I do agree that STPT should be trading over $60 or even $70 using any of the net present value formulas, but rest assured it will be over $100 before year end.
Then the real question is, when will the rest of the investment community see it? Adcom recommendation for approval seems to be coming before year end, maybe before Thanksgiving. It may be at that point that people will realize the actual value is substantially higher. Could be a 3-bagger this year, and agin in 2016.
The manipulation is something we can't do anything about so might as well ride the wave. SRPT is severely under valued here and I'm happy to buy more knowing it will double or triple before year end.
There are many issues with the way that the BMRN CEO valued the impact of Drisapersen. Not the least of which is that since the drug doesn't work, they will have a rapidly diminishing patient base even among those who try the flawed drug.
The CEO is trying to get a ROI for all they poured into Drisapersen. Regardless if it works or not. Nobody like that has a conscience or cares. A true sociopath. Remember, a psychopath can't tell right from wrong. A sociopath can tell, they just don't care.
In short, yes, they vote at the end. But keep in mind that is merely the recommendation. The FDA does not have to follow it, but they usually do.
Certainly into the $40's on news of completion of the FDA file and over $50/share upon acceptance of the NDA by the FDA to proceed forward. This would accurately reflect the low end of value given these milestones have been achieved.
Remember, hedge fund managers can sell unlimited number of shares short, even shares that do not exist. This way the markets are always crooked & rigged. You can't buy unlimited shares, even those that don't exist, only sell them short.
Remember that GSK walked away from Drisapersen completely. Now we are hearing about very negative safety data that was covered up in the phase III trials. When that comes to light, it will be very hard for the FDA advisory committee to recommend approval.