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Morgan Stanley Message Board

malachysbrother 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 7, 2015 5:40 AM Member since: Jun 4, 2008
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  • It would appear the bottom is in and that cooler heads are finally prevailing. Lots of blue sky above. GLTA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is this a "This too shall pass" event?

    by richguyintraining Sep 26, 2015 9:47 PM
    malachysbrother malachysbrother Sep 28, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Given the amount it has dropped thus far and the historials of GM and Toyota, we HAVE to be close to bottom. Most analysts believe that VW has already set aside more than enough to cover the cost of their stupidity. Let's face it - nobody was killed! Face it! Emissions violations, of which there have been many, do not stay in the minds of consumers very long. Consumers want performance and engineering, both which the Germans clearly satisfy. A Ford Escord is just not the same. Sorry.
    There was an article in Forbes just today, I believe, which I thought explained the situation clearly. Panic and overselling, today exaggerated by computerized selling. Welcome to Casino Wall Street. Fundamentals today mean little. But VW has dropped so far already! What are we looking at? 45%? For God's sake. That is ridiculous. Nobody was killed! No flaming oil wells. No oily beaches. No gasping seals or oil laden ducks. No inoperative brakes (Toyota). No firey crashes! Emissions, not meaning to minimize what happened but let's keep things in perspective! A couple of years ago, this would not have been actionable! But here we are.
    I bought VW stock recently, though am losing a few Passats at this point! But I am a long-term investor. I live in Europe. VWs have been and will continue to be popular. The emissions issue appears only in the financial press here.
    The company has a software patch. Compensation will be paid to ownters and the pound of flesh will be paid to the US governement. That said, Google, Microsoft, and Intel and other large American firms had better watch their step in Europe in the future. This is war by another name.

    PS. You can kiss the Transatlantic Trade Agreement goodbye.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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