this is a remarkably dysfunctional group here in RAS-yahoo land, with years-old battles and bickering of which i know precious little. the stock itself is pretty interesting... almost compelling. but the civil war within the forum, with its mega alt-user accounts and general nonsense are a bummer.
KBW is one of the big boys. their opinion carries weight. on a positive note (i use that term loosely), UBS came into today with a $10.50 target price for FSC, down from $11.50....... they reiterate a "buy" rating. still way better than the ugly-ugly target from KBW.
i think most of us dingalings here know about PSEC. there are a bunch of good BDCs that are presumably less risky than PSEC. i agree with you, none of the BDCs are a bargain right now. i'm long FSC, PSEC, TCPC, NMFC, ARCC, PFLT.
good point. in fact, it gets stranger than that. last week wunderlich downgraded TCPC from buy to hold, but upgraded the target price from $17.50 to $18.00
that happened 5 days ago. it was downgraded purely on valuation. the same analyst actually raised the target price to $18.0 from $17.50
downgrades have to come. up to now, the average target price for FSC among analysts is $11.40. you think they're going to let that stand? no way.
looks like someone big wanted out. TCPC did nearly twice its daily volume on a day where the market as a whole had lower than normal volume.
from their year-end financial report:
On November 21, 2013, our Board of Directors terminated our existing $50 million stock repurchase program and approved a new $100 million stock repurchase program. Any stock repurchases under this program would be made through the open market at times and in such amounts as our management would deem appropriate, provided they are below the most recently published NAV per share. Unless extended by the Board, the program will expire on November 21, 2014 and may be limited or terminated at any time without prior notice.
saying FSC is going to trade between $7 and $8 is absolutely ridiculous. the lower risk profile will keep it above NAV after the sell off (presuming the whole maket doesnt go into the crapper). in the meantime, everybody will head for the exit.
i would think a dividend cut is largely already priced in. so there may be a brief share price dive from here, but not sustained. the NAV is about $9.90.... it's going to trade above NAV.
thanks for the insight.. a lot of the time you see pops on low volume, but today the volume was slightly above normal for RAS, where the broader market has lower than normal volume. it's all pretty encouraging right now.
NRZ has a twitter account... @newresidential
the only problem is they have never tweeted anything, and have only 2 followers.
it's lonely at the bottom, i guess.
NRZ's book value is $4.98....... so there's a scary thought. i own 14 stocks and NRZ is the only one down today. but as they say, it's always darkest before the dawn. ...and patience is a virtue. ....and it is what it is. ...and tomorrow is another day. what else do they say?? oh, yeah... #$%$ happens."