what's left that can go wrong? what about the limbo of the cole deal? if ARCP is sitting in the low 8s, after this horrific year, how much lower can it realistically go?
if watching a stock's volatile move for a few days bothers you, then you should not be in the stock market. in the next year (and beyond), GILD could go much much higher, or much lower.... or both.
Ivascyn is bullish on non-agency MBS in 2015. "U.S. non-agency mortgages are poised for outperformance, but agency paper is overvalued, particularly as the Fed's purchases have ended." we shall see.
not_totally_gray.... i think he wasnt attributing the 17% to PDI, but rather junk in general. you're right, PDI's exposure to energy is virtually zero.
you raise a good point. the info has not been widely disseminated. however, the press release is on the pimco site. from the pimco homepage, click on closed end funds, click on PDI, then on the right side of the screen click press releases.
for any weather nuts out there... numerical guidance (the euro and even the #$%$ GFS) are showing sustained ridging out west, resulting in a sustained feed of cold air into the eastern half of the country in january....... also w/ an active sub tropical jet, we're going to see repeated snow events into the midatlantic/northeast states. winter is coming.
i have to laugh... people giving my comment a thumbs down. it's just a simple statistical fact, a weak ENSO, like we have now, produces back-loaded cold winters.
regarding cold weather, weak el ninos (like we have now) tend to have somewhat mild decembers, followed by colder than normal january and february.
price action of PDI sucked today. don't know why. is it PDI's exposure to brazilian debt? oil sell off not good for brazil... ipsofacto.... PDI down? who the hell knows. i'm reaching here. PDI kinda broadly mimics JNK, but not really. meh.
after going off the rails in an article on theStreet, their bio-tech writer had to add a note at the end of his article. the writer heard from institutional investors who think the Express Scripts deal has limited impact beyond Hep-C drugs. here's the direct quote: "I've heard from some institutional investors who believe drug pricing overall is not at significant risk because hepatitis C is different from other diseases."
"Hepatitis C is a short-term cure market, so Express Scripts can force patients to take a regimen that is more inconvenient with more side effects because treatment is over in 12 or 24 weeks," commented one institutional investor via email. He adds: "Hepatitis C is also a prevalence market, meaning there are relatively no new cases diagnosed. Companies are looking to just drain the prevalence pool with no future market to protect, which creates incentives to use price to win share before the market disappears. Cancer is different. Even Express Scripts says cancer is the 'third rail' for PBMS because patients who are dying will not tolerate having their doctors' choices interfered with."
mikectm2... pimco recently released an "outlook for 2015." Ivascyn believes non-agency mortgage securities will out-perform in 2015, and they feel agency mortgage backed securities are over-valued. and that's reflected in PDI's portfolio as it overwhelmingly favors non-agency mortgage securities.
cwn600..... i have a schwab brokerage account and that's where i got the numbers...
12/23/14: days range: $28.90 - $29.12. close $29.08
12/24/13: day's range $28.97 - $29.19. close: $29.15.
12/26/13: day's range $29.02 - $29.83. close: $29.74
i agree your numbers make more sense, because it's absurd to think the price would be up so much on the ex-date. i simply assumed the prices on schwab were correct because i have never had reason not to trust the website in the 4 years i've had an account there. what it appears they did was add the ex-div to the closing price on 12/24... which is not unusual, HOWEVER, they have no record of the price ever being higher than $29.19 on that date. it's just f-ed up. sorry for the confusion. i trusted schwab.
looking back at the special dividend in 2012, it's clear the special div is subtracted from the share price, just like every other ex-date. meanwhile, the price action on the special ex-date in 2013 was crazy-funky.
cwn600, i'm assuming the special dividend is subtracted from the share price on the ex-date. the closing price on the day prior to the ex-date was $29.15. so all things being equal, the opening share price on the ex-date should have been $1.31 lower...., or $27.84. and yet.... the closing price on the ex-date was $29.74, which is a full $1.90 higher (i previously said $1.80).
so here's the question.... is it possible the SPECIAL dividend is not subtracted from the share price on the ex-date? if that's the case, then that's a fantastic deal.
the ex-date for the special will be interesting because last year on the ex-date, PDI actually finished up by about 50 cents on a day that went $1.31 ex-dividend. so PDI was effectively up $1.80 that day.
i think the sell off this month is a combination of tax loss selling as well as the BDCs getting chucked in with the sell off in high yield. regarding today, PNNT sold off on high volume in the same way as ARCC on their ex-date. this strongly suggests an institutional investor bailing out. i think the gap will be filled by the end of january, if not a lot sooner.
bananabb......... i'd hold on to every single share if i was you. we'll probably see a very large rally by the end of january, as wash sale limitations expire.