cwn600..... i have a schwab brokerage account and that's where i got the numbers...
12/23/14: days range: $28.90 - $29.12. close $29.08
12/24/13: day's range $28.97 - $29.19. close: $29.15.
12/26/13: day's range $29.02 - $29.83. close: $29.74
i agree your numbers make more sense, because it's absurd to think the price would be up so much on the ex-date. i simply assumed the prices on schwab were correct because i have never had reason not to trust the website in the 4 years i've had an account there. what it appears they did was add the ex-div to the closing price on 12/24... which is not unusual, HOWEVER, they have no record of the price ever being higher than $29.19 on that date. it's just f-ed up. sorry for the confusion. i trusted schwab.
looking back at the special dividend in 2012, it's clear the special div is subtracted from the share price, just like every other ex-date. meanwhile, the price action on the special ex-date in 2013 was crazy-funky.
cwn600, i'm assuming the special dividend is subtracted from the share price on the ex-date. the closing price on the day prior to the ex-date was $29.15. so all things being equal, the opening share price on the ex-date should have been $1.31 lower...., or $27.84. and yet.... the closing price on the ex-date was $29.74, which is a full $1.90 higher (i previously said $1.80).
so here's the question.... is it possible the SPECIAL dividend is not subtracted from the share price on the ex-date? if that's the case, then that's a fantastic deal.
this year's special dividend of $1.83 is considerably larger than last year's $1.31. the run up in price isnt going to wait until tuesday.... it already started today. and keep in mind last year on the ex-date, THE PRICE WENT UP $1.80! there was huge buying on high volume on the ex-date.
the ex-date for the special will be interesting because last year on the ex-date, PDI actually finished up by about 50 cents on a day that went $1.31 ex-dividend. so PDI was effectively up $1.80 that day.
i think the sell off this month is a combination of tax loss selling as well as the BDCs getting chucked in with the sell off in high yield. regarding today, PNNT sold off on high volume in the same way as ARCC on their ex-date. this strongly suggests an institutional investor bailing out. i think the gap will be filled by the end of january, if not a lot sooner.
bananabb......... i'd hold on to every single share if i was you. we'll probably see a very large rally by the end of january, as wash sale limitations expire.
i think the selll off is specific to a fund selling it off on the ex-date. ARCC behaved the exact same way on the ex-date... massive sell off.
the sold shares were because of a margin call. meanwhile, another officer of MHR was a buyer of shares on that same day (12/1)
low volume, dude. all the after hour trades are for only a couple hundred shares.
low volume. it's only 16,000 shares. clearly all retail sales as they dribble out a couple hundred shares at a time. no big deal
from analyst Brian Brungardt of Stifel Nicolas (12/10/14): "We are maintaining our Buy rating on the units/shares and lowering our target price to $22 reflecting the lowered commodity price environment. We arrive at our $22 target price applying a FY15E EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x. While we believe distribution coverage will be challenged should the current commodity environment persist during FY15, we believe management is committed to maintain the distribution. Investors will benefit in FY15, in our opinion, from management’s moves to lower the corporate decline rate which lowers the maintenance capex needs. We do anticipate LINE to be active in FY15 on the acquisition front particularly should oil prices remain at current levels. With approximately $2.5 billion in liquidity, we believe the partnership could pursue approximately $1 billion in acquisitions without being forced to access the capital markets."
where did you get "78 cents as of sept"???? on the pimco website they have UNII as $1.57 as of november 1st. it's unclear however if any of that is left over from 2013.
they must think the broader market is gonna suck if "outperform" means the stock goes lower.
meh. repayments are lumpy quarter to quarter with BDCs. in the 2nd quarter they had $117 million in repayments, while this past quarter they had $89 million in repayments.