Red and Maui, i just read a little detail of the trials of the gene therapy. Overall, it looks quite promising, although fairly early stage. What I also saw was that response rate in some cases was around two thirds or so, with no response in a number of cases, and also that a number of CRs had relapsed. In that light I don't see this as a short term problem for SGEN. This is the first pass at this type of therapy, and will take many years to get to market, in the indications they are testing in. Although I think we would all love to see a magic pill to cure all cancers, reality is that the need for improved therapies that save more people and extend survival (like SGEN produces), will be around for quite a while.
The thing that originally attracted me to this stock years ago and since is that it is a biotech that get's their research for there own drugs paid for by milestone payments from the people using the technology for their own drugs (which will yield royalties if ever approved by fda). There has been no dilution for several years, as the milestones and now revenues from sales have funded R&D.
It looks to me that the last week has been a very good test of the 200 day moving average. At the low point I think it was breached intra day, but since then there has been a big bounce. The downward pressures were obviously aided by the bad ARIA news, which drag a number of names down.
With the coming presentations at ASH, which looks to be pretty good per the abstracts and the good quarterly report I would expect we test new highs at some point in the coming months. However, I'm not a market timer, having been long here for around six years.
I have been here for 5-6 years, and I would say this is a great time to get in. The data in frontline looks good, and you have to remember that the data in the trial removes one of the most dangerous drugs (ABV vs ABVD)