News article says China is being very careful not to upset the gold market by purchasing too much at one time., but that it does play some role in their financial plan. If they are concerned about the US dollar they could be buying gold, but of course would do likely accumulate slowly and quietly. Of course were China ot announce it was going to stock up on gold the price would spike. In the background all the money printing etc has many still insisting gold goes higher. the question is when and how low will it go first?
News today has the Canadian Foreign affairs minister saying that its a national imperative to get a pipeline to the west coast in a speech in Hong Kong. cbc the Canadian news agency has a story:" Pacific pipeline crucial for Canada, Baird says in Asia, march 13, 2013, also says hopes the keystone gets built, and wants to diversify trade to include more with China, Asia region and India.
Interesting to hear the president respond to questions on North Korea, he did not sound that concerned, said something like they probably could not carry out their threat, but did say he was always concerned about margin of error or something to that effect. Perhaps the North Korean rhetoric is for local public propaganda, but those are dangeous things to say. The problem is that "margin for error" if President Obama mis-reads the situation and the threat is real it would make the sept 2011 attack on the world trade building appear minor in comparison. One has to consider that the delivery of a nuclear weapon does not have to done by ICBM and there are other ways for N.Korea to accomplish their threat. It is also possible that the weapons test the North Koreans did was a conventional weapon and not nuclear and their rhetoric is based out of fear that they will be invaded. One has to hold out hope that in the middle of all the sword rattling a re-unification peace process is ongoing. A Korean civil war does not make sense so perhaps logic will prevail. As far as oil is
concerned the Iran-N.Korea ties have to be considered and the volatile nature of other world risks are not priced into oil as much as it should be. jmho
Lucky for peace that the UN approved a new round of sanctions, the alternative is pretty unthinkable. Trouble is if this new round of sanctions dont work they just might run out of time for sanctions, then war is likely. If one looks at Iraq and how it was thought to have weapons of mass destruction and what happened to them, North Korea should look at options while they still have time to do so. Perhaps just sword rattle as another poster suggested, but doubt that \Washington is going to wait to find out while N. Korea continues on its development of more shopisticated weapons and delivery systems. Both the north and south should consider re-unification seriously, this thing could come to a head in the not too distant future. It would not surprise if the next incident leads to major conflict. Oil not a major concern but everything would be affected should combat break out.
Your capitulation is probably felt by a lot of gold investors. Given the money printing and the potential for race to the bottom currency war there probably is upside from here, but the market can be harsh and even illogical for longer than one can hold on. Many who suggested all the money printing and stimulus would lead to inflation are now having their doubts since it has not happened yet. One can never tell but of course there is still downside from here, perhaps you are making the best call. good luck.
Thinking one has to be a doom and gloom sort of person to be a commodity trader. so what happens to gold if and when the market crashes? Thinking if the crash were to be big enough it takes everything down even gold. lots of others are talking about the recovery of the economy as if it were underway now. Rogers is saying its a sham. any comments?
If it is a nuclear war it would be over in a matter of hours, but if there is a conventional war it could go on for some time. Dont know the population of the Korea's but there could be tremendous loss of life and their economy would be very weakened. Thinking China would stay out of it. Difficult for China to supprt a nation that talks of first strike with a nuclear weapon. If the north stays on its path to develop miniture nuclear weapons and ICBM and continues to make threats they will run out of time with the sanction option and they likely face change of government by force of war.
Final thought is that civil war is just so sad. North Korea has a lot to gain by peace talk and re-unification. Certainly would have to compromise on their ideology and perhaps their leader might have to take on a provincial head role but if they are given democratic election votes they would have a lot of say how they do things. Of course dictators dont usually go for elections etc, but they have a chance. probably little chance of the north bending on their ideology. looking like closer to 12 oclock mid nite on the clock.
I do agree that Iran is too smart to fall in line with a nations threat of nuclear pre-emptive strike. Iran is too smart to be tricked into a war by making and then threatening with a weapon of mass destruction. So yeah it might just be sword rattling but it can get North Korea obliterated.
Sword rattling, perhaps but if they do away with the armistice agreement and hotline then when the next shelling incident happens its automatic war. Not an expert but if they cancel the cease hostility agreement are they back in a state of war? The north must understand they claim to have a weapon(s) of mass destruction and might do a pre-emptive first strike which is far more evidence than the US had on Iraq and look what happened to them. the north could find themselves under attack with the slightest mis step. So far the pattern has been for the south and US to ignore or not react to threats and even agression. As N. korea advances its weapons technology and delivery they can not expect to be given the benefit of the doubt when they make a threat. As for oil North Korea has almost none but a major war would demand large amounts of refined products.
So S. Korea is adding more gold to their inventory. Makes sense at today prices and of course if one expects gold to go higher or their currency to devalue. Thinking Korea is closer to war than some may think. The North continues on its path of weapons and weapon delivery systems in spite of sanctions and is now reported to be making threats. No doubt a major Korea civil war would hurt their economy and currency, maybe a smart more to stock up on gold for them for that reason alone. One day one of those joint military exercises could turn into the real thing. with the clash of ideology and stuborn nature war may be the outcome. While hoping for peace I doubt the south and the US will stand by while the North gets stronger and continues to threaten. We live in dangerous times.
final comment is that I do hope they go the peaceful route and perhaps unify Korea. If not there could be a large loss of life and damage. Decades later the next generation having to deal with the aftermath will wonder what were they thinking?
Perhaps the baket ball diplomacy will work. one has to wonder if the basket ball player brought some message to the N. Korean leader.
Many nations have agreed no currency war, but as natural market forces devalue their increased printed money it could look like that. Saw one quote that said everyone is printing more money is that what some are calling the race to the bottom?
Not sure that the sanction route is going to be given much more time to work. Could be very close to 12 oclock mid-nite for the Koreans.
News reports say they are making progerss on nuclear weapons and rocket delivery systems, and may be soon they can make their nuclear weapons small enough to go onto an ICBM. Add to this now they are making threats of nuclear attack on the US. It would seem to me the US government may not wait for the technology to develop and threats to be carried out. I am not sure the sanction route will continue for much longer. Could be one of the joint exercises turns into an attack one day. No doubt N.Korea is worried every time a joint exercise is carried out, and even more so in light of threats they are making. This could come to a head at any time. As for this board and price of oil etc it will drive oil up especially if Iran has some joint defense agrement with the north.
If one takes them at their word the N.Koreans are working on it. So what does the UN and US do ramp up sanctions for now. At some point in time the governement will not ignore threats and as the north advances its weapons technology and continues to make threats it could very well be attacked. Perhaps the basketball player delivered the message.
If the news reports that N.Korea is going to do away with the armistice agrement and the hotlilne are true it does indicate they are moving closer to war.
So we see clash of ideology and now threats/rhetoric. It would be easy to just say idle threats and rhetoric and ignore but the North is said to be developing nuclear weapons testing and now working on missle long range technology that could lead to ICBMs. Sanctions have not worked, so far other than to punish N Korea.
As the N.Koreans develop weapons technology and if sanctions continue to fail and they continue to threaten one might expect they will be attacked before they get too strong. While there is still hope of a peaceful agrement and perhaps unification every test etc brings the country closer to a war situation. Now how this will affect the price of oil is secondary but thinking it could go much higher on any such conflict. One must also be aware of the link between N.Korea and Iran.