I have no desire to see pain in others - merely a desire to profit myself. On a lighter note: you may be able to make back some of your recent VRTS losses (I say "recent" because everyone on this board has assured me that they are, indeed, ahead lifetime on VRTS) by buying GX right now at the ask of $0.71 Don't worry about them going bankrupt (they probably will.) The stock is down due to forced selling inflicted by their dismissal from the S&P 500. It will surely have a nice technical bounce before being sucked to zero. -Marc
I tend to discipline DCLK critics who stupidy discount the cash position. Those who take a negative view of the business model are left untouched. Note that I have "called out" many more longs than shorts this year! Weren't you around for these posts?
GLW trades at a reasonable 2.9 times sales and has a 5 year sales growth rate of over 17%/year. They are expected to make $1.16 next year and, trading in the 21's, have plenty of room to miss this # without a big stock price decline.
Funny you should mention NEWP! I placed this stock on my (very short) buy watch list a few days ago. Trading at a reasonable 4.6 times sales and 2.6 times tangible book, NEWP sports 5 year sales growth rate of 20%/year and very consitent earnings. This stock looks undervalued to me, but I am afraid to buy it because it has almost doubled from its 4/4/01 low. Those who bought in the 20's will be quick to click "sell" on the way down. I doubt this stock will test it low - even if the Nasdaq makes new lows.
Why would anyone buy garbage companies like
[SEBL, VRTS, BEAS, AMZN, PMCS, CHKP, YHOO, EBAY, ...]
that make little money (or lose it) AND have rapidly declining growth rates??? Why not buy GLW or NEWP instead??? Most tech investors are idiots who can't read a balance sheet or an earnings report! They see (or hear) a headline that company XYZ "beat the street" and they run right away to buy the stock. For example, yesterday Maria Bartiromo reported that HWP announced "strong" results. Sales were down 4% year/year. Earnings were down 58% year/year and next quarter's sales were projected to be flat to down 5% from this quarter. How is this strong? 18 cents every quarter (and this is the inflated "pro forma" variety) would be 72 cents/year and a P/E ratio of 42 (with HWP trading at 30, up over 3 bucks on the news). How in hell does a company with a 5 year sales growth rate of only 9% (during mostly boom times) justify such a valuation??? Today's tech investors are mostly idiots who will be seriously disappointed over the next few years.
Best regards from a losing short. -Marc
1) Here is a profile.
2) I used to always post with this name until some idiot imposter started posting as RNarc_ingenoso_phd. Ironically, the idiot originated the name just a few days before I tried to get it myself! I "own" both marc_ingenoso and RNarc_ingenoso. Now they are releagted to changing the vowels around - but that is much less transparent.
3) I put everyone on ignore who says that I am MP.
4) Vinnie is an idiot - just put him on ignore. Up to the point I ignored him, his entire purpose for existing was to harass me. Not able to create an original thought (like most of those on my ignore list), he even took his name from one of my posts. -Marc
Good call on DCLK's earnings report. Downside is indeed around $6/share now. You are unignored. In the future please try to state your case more persuasively than "this company sucks my ass". No one pays attention to such talk and it does not help your case (which I presume is to get people to buy/sell stocks that you are long/short.)
Perhaps business recently fell off a cliff and that is why the forward guidance is so bad despite his optimistic CNBC interview 3 weeks ago. Note that many tech/internet companies have met or modestly missed for this quarter, but issued extremely bleak views for the future. The recession is rapidly accelerating! If the stock market continues to rally, you will start hearing Fed officials admit we are in a recession; they were afraid to say it when the market was freefalling. -Marc
I have no worthwhile opinion on such legal matters, however, going after INTC is quite a stretch in my layman's view. The Europeans are socialist idiots for the most part - so one can expect neither fair nor logical decisions from them. The French mandatory maximum work week is my favorite European idiocy. -Marc
What did I tell you! The very next message (#76379 by nsoul14) calls you an idiot. Some dogs will pull your sled. Others wind up being clubbed to death and never learn to follow the rules. Many dogs will perish in the selling mania we will be enjoying later this year. You won't be hearing "ten times next year's expected sales" or "a hundred times next year's expected earnings" much come next Fall. -Marc
You say: "Hmmm. Must be another insurance underwriter."
What in hell are you talking about? What does insurance have to do with anything Bolotomus or I talked about? Seriously.
1) Most internet/tech stocks are still ridiculously overvalued, as you well know. However, the Nasdaq falling to triple digits seems quite a stretch from today's viewpoint - even considering the recession that everyone is underestimating. While we may very well get there, most here will dismiss you as an idiot and forget about your prediction if/when it comes true. That's why I've been predicting the selloff a little bit at a time (usually 100 points on the NDX). Then the idiots that criticize you are shut up in very short order.
2) I certainly hope that we make new lows by the 3rd Friday in April when my LGTO Apr10 puts expire. The earnings warning should come before then, but I'll need a general selloff as well to score big.
3) I agree that the final capitulation will be uglier than most could even imagine today.
4) Technical analysis is a large part of my "day job". Stock trading is no part of it.
Best regards, Marc.
Who in hell are you? I am short AMZN and I like reading your posts. As a "rocket scientist" somewhere in the trading business not having to do with individual stocks, I don't have the time or inclination to study AMZN (or any stock) as deeply as you have. It seems many cheerleading longs are simply in denial of the facts rolling in: ETYS, Webvan, Drugstore.com, etc. These are/were all great services that I used/use personally
Off topic: EBAY - with a good business model and probably no earnings warning - is the last man standing in the internet sector. "Internet investors" have given up on most everthing else and run to EBAY as a "safe haven", supporting its astronomical P/E. It will be the last internet stock to fall apart. I will be looking to short it when the Nasdaq 100 falls to 1500 and will call a market bottom when EBAY falls below $20/share (which is inevitable). Best regards, sir.
I see a small bounce in the Nasdaq after bleeding 15% has brought the out idiot imposters: thinkican200, jughead95958, rnarc_ingenoso_phd and others forthcoming. Whoever is doing this obviously lost his ass in February buying tech stocks. Remember the last post from my imposter? It was to buy ORCL at 20.125 He got fucked while I was short techs.
I will certainly be quick to cover my shorts and protect February's gains if it looks like the cheerleaders are taking control temporarily! In anticipation of the inevitable non-tech collapse (and out of fear) I have shorted non-tech lately (ADVP, CHIC). I would have been better off keeping my tech shorts! A lost opportunity - but cannot dwell on past errors.
SEBL, ITWO, PMCS, AMCC, NTAP, ARBA, EBAY are still overpriced garbage at current quotes. AMZN is overpriced at anything above zero.
I think YHOO is going to 12 before it hits 20. Their outlook was horrible, and people are no longer "buying the dips". The Nasdaq 100 will trade below 1600 this month and bottom out below 1500. IMHO. -Marc