Correct. That is why I am expecting this to move some-time after the Q4 earnings call. Until then it will most likely stay were it is. The extend of the move depends on projected margins as well.
$0.1 to $0.12 per ADS based Q3 guidance, up 25% over Q2 2014, but down 75% year over year (Q3 2014 was $0.39 fully diluted). Unless margins improve and Q4 guidance will project earnings growth over Q3 and year over year the stock will see more selling preasure.
They haven't even released news about the official opening of the sales center (well, at least not in English), so how would anyone know what's going on at 421. WS doesn't seem to care because it is only a small part of their operation compared to the risk inherent to their Chinese developments.
The low share-price is in the interest of XIN management because they can issue options at a relatively low strikeprice to themselfs. I had pointed this out on multiple occasions but no one listened.
Google: Developers offer hefty discounts in strained China homes market
Exactly. And because the market does not give this stock the benefit of the doubt XIN won't move until after Q3 earning are been announced in November. Possible even that it won't get anywhere but down until margins improved in Q4. I pointed out after the release of q1 earnings last quarter that margins are compressed. Until they expand the stock can not move upwards. The downgrades of XINs bonds are the result of that margin compression and hopefully management will finally understand that a private jet for the CEO and a helicopter are less important than access to reasonable interest rates on their loans.
Ex-date on Sep 2nd and no dividend related bump so far. Company should scrap the dividend, let the share-price fall to a dollar, and take it private. This company is completely ignored by WS, no one believes they have a future of earnings growth after the margins dropped like a stone. In order for WS to value a stock more than the current price there has to be a clear sign if future growth in revenue and earnings. Here, we have future growth in revenue (maybe) but earnings compression due to G&A costs.
XIN may, yes. There is enough cash on the balance sheet for the board to pull this or the CEO could place a tender offer at a price that would be slightly higher than the current stock price. They haven't used Wallstreet to raise money for business activities since the IPO anyways, so why trade as a public company? "The CEO likes the discipline that comes with being listed on the NYSE" as Gurnee once said, yeah right.
While I am writing this the class action lawyers are already all over CHLN. Not good for any of the listed Chinese RE companies. Fortunately, I never bought CHLN shares.
Look at the bid/ask ration for the Jan and April 2014 call options. 1:1 on the $2.50 strike price for both, but 10:1 on the Jan $5 and 30:1 on the April $5 strike price.
... It is also the reason they don't buy back many shares. They must know that their ballance sheet and cash flow are deteriorating. The dividend ain't so safe either, just sayin' ...
I gave you a thumbs up. Best find in a LONG time, and it confirms exactly what many of us have been thinking. Increased SG&A, margin compression, and a deterioration of the balance sheet. The result of this could be that the yield on their bonds will go up (as the price falls) and they will have to pay even more for construction loans and further US loans. $2.50, not a penny more for this one.
They low share-price is in their interest because it allows them to grant options on the cheap.