Not much economic news left this year. I expect mildly up days till next week last week of 2014. Silver is getting a pop free market Thursday 26 December. But I don't feel anything except a boomerang effect after so many down days. Hedge funds are not due to show up until January adding to what others think maybe a massive January effect. The Russell 2000 which has been lagging S&P 500 a half dozen percent May Be the Best Play of the first quarter 2015 for those who like their ETFs broad and inclusive. A few commentators have come to the conclusion that popping interest rates mid 2015 may be a sign of confidence in the strength going forward. Sounds to me like more prayer then analysis but what the heck. When the Bulls are stampeding you don't examine their motivation you either jump out of the way or go with.
Sparkling economic news gives silver and gold a run for its money and not to the upside. Job creation appears to be firmly in the middle class for perhaps the second reporting period since 2008. This is not good news for those who bank on silver and gold being a safe haven. There's no need for safe haven if we're the only game in town. Europe is so far behind it isn't even a consideration at least as a long. Oil seems to have stabilized around 55 to 60 dollars about.
The fly in the ointment of growth in the general markets not this part of the curve. It's when oil corrects. It will add a modicum of inflation that may exceed FOMC targets. They could combine oil price normalization with the discretionary cash now available to newly minted middle class job holders. Since the Fed makes its decisions about interest rates based upon the rate of growth and not only actual growth it will look up on the 5 percent GDP kind of number plus the normalization of oil prices together. Add those two numbers together and growth Iinflation above its 2% target rather quickly.
for now we are on the up side of the slope in the general market and on the down side for gold and silver. Looming interest rate hikes is not going to help.
Silver is tarnished, but the rest of the market is filled with ho's. Ho ho ho's that is.
I "puts" it to you.
Retail needs a shot in the arm, but you couldn't tell from all the Yellen in the market. Santa Claus says buy buy buy, as 2014 heads for bye bye bye, a 6% "V" recovery, AGAIN. As sure as Jennifer Lawrence channels Carole Lombard, Yellen is the anti Grinch. If FOMC can afford to be "patient", I've suggested 2022 before interest rates are "normalized" because joesixpack has little salary to devote more buying power--to credit cards and mortgage rates--as homes for real America linger at June 2004 prices. Joe is therefore as stingy as he can google and price check. Remember, for housing, it's been a decade to recover, and some has--BUT, surely the June 2004 price "deserves" "normal" price appreciation of 20%, that's about 2% a year and "reasonable" given inflation is mythology the economy is "growing". 20% that gets everyone "even" seems a long way off -- still.
No snow yet, NE US. Not "normal" but who WANTS big heating bills, snarled traffic, and the flu? See that? R U getting it? Or am I being too obtuse?
Merry Ho Ho.
Dec 22 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Nov - 5.15M 5.20M 5.26M -
Dec 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Nov - 4.2% 2.8% 0.4% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Nov - 1.2% 1.0% -0.9% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q3 - 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q3 - 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% -
Dec 23 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Oct - NA NA 0.0% -
Dec 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Dec - 92.0 93.8 93.8 -
Dec 23 10:00 AM Personal Income Nov - 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% -
Dec 23 10:00 AM Personal Spending Nov - 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% -
Dec 23 10:00 AM PCE Prices - Core Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
Dec 23 10:00 AM New Home Sales Nov - 450K 460K 458K -
Dec 24 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/20 - NA NA -3.3% -
Dec 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/20 - 290K 290K 289K -
Dec 24 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/13 - 2350K 2358K 2373K -
Dec 24 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/20 - NA NA -0.847M -
Dec 24 12:00 PM Natural Gas Inventories 12/20 - NA NA -64 bcf
The market is celebrating Janet's reluctance to pop irates and willingness to be "patient", it looks more and more like investors think the Fed will NEVER raise rates. But Yellen waits for the rate of change to show inflation, not the relative rate, so when oil corrects upwardly, those "inflationary" forces will count against low interest rates, just when joesixpac is getting some traction.
For now in the general market, the bulls are running, the Santa Claus rally is ignoring the lousy retail season (!) and it's off to the races. One thing is for certain, Jeff Macke was wrong, about the Fed influences on the masses being less important than FEDEX--FEDEX faltered, but the Fed fed the rally.
It's not over yet either.
for retailers in general. If impatience, rather than volume, is driving consumers, they aren't buying as much this XMAS, and the Fed nonsense this afternoon will just be more piling on.
Actually Sonya, Wed 17 Dec pre market for FEDEX, and 2PM for the Fed is the "day" you get out of the way or go with the flow, no matter how stupid, manipulated, or motivated.
Up in the morning, down in the afternoon, sold off by end of day, markets are floundering--the retail season past is 10% behind 2013 according to Black Friday estimates--if FEDEX flounders premarket Wednesday 17 Dec, the market will crumble like stale XMAS cookies. The best the FED will have to offer is not pouring gasoline on the equity fire by saying "they like the recovery so far, but current trends auger in the direction of caution and stability, and they'll stay the course to keep interest rates low for the forseeable future". Anything else in the middle of this firestorm --like the oil glut is a "temporary phenom--telegraphs the thought, we don't care what the data says, we lied, interest rates are going up, ha ha ha--is irresponsible and stupid. Of course, no bets on the intelligence of banksters or government, Greenspan was notorious when stating he "didn't care" about the stock market. Those days are passed, but linger in memories of those who lived with the ultimate Grinch. Congress which just passed a bailout banks law along with the budget that squeaked through last week seems to be preparing for the worst, meaning, the Fed doesn't think it is stuck in a liquidity trap, and will blow it.
All other drivel is like ants arguing over who owns the forest. All ships sink in a falling tide and we have seen gold silver not only reactive, but openly manipulated by banks under Federal auspice. Ride it, get out, sell some calls, and buy puts with the proceeds.
See if that works? PM and 2 PM, the new definition of "sweat" equity gets written on the books.
you get out of the way or go with them, no matter how stupid, manipulated, or motivated.
Up in the morning, down in the afternoon, sold off by end of day, markets are floundering--the retail season past is 10% behind 2013 according to Black Friday estimates--if FEDEX flounders premarket Wednesday 17 Dec, the market will crumble like stale XMAS cookies. The best the FED will have to offer is not pouring gasoline on the equity fire by saying "they like the recovery so far, but current trends auger in the direction of caution and stability, and they'll stay the course to keep interest rates low for the forseeable future". Anything else in the middle of this firestorm is irresponsible and stupid. Of course, no bets on the intelligence of banksters or government, which just passed a bailout banks law along with the budget that squeaked through last week.
All this drivel about AAL contract negotiations coming, (normal) is like ants arguing over who owns the forest.
All ships sink in a falling tide. Ride it, get out, sell some calls, and buy puts with the proceeds.
Try writing a Jan 2 49.00 or higher, and get a buck to put in your pocket over the next couple weeks as the market flounders around. It gets you some protection, you can even buy puts with it, and it obligates the shares in such a way, they can't use them to short.
Plane fares are level, fuel costs are dropping like flies THIS QUARTER.
for those who need an excuse for the selloff. Google it.
Industrial production is ticking up, and the quality of jobs JUST started to tick up after seven years, but the FUD starts its drivel today. Best to watch FEDEX tomorrow and not FED excesses, as the temper of shipping shows more about the 70% retail that constitutes the real economy than all the fuzz Madam Chairman Yellen Rate Popper the 1st can bandy about. But the herd is what you watch, it isn't what you believe it's what they do, and when the bulls in Spain run, you don't stand there however smartly in front of the stampede, you go with them, or hide in cash in a doorway till it all passes.
Bottom line: The Fed will repeat "data dependent" drivel, like the fact the economy is improving but fragile, and use the words "considerable time for the forseeable future" but indicate the future is closer than farther away, however worried it may be about deflation-they will suddenly see the oil price relief as "temporary". The market will scream "oil is crashing, and the Fed is leaving the building" as if it didn't know at least two of those two issues were forthcoming. In the meantime, the phone calls will be made to JP Morgan and such, to keep a finger on the roulette wheel of gold and silver, lest Russian and Chinese storehouses, pumped up of late, provide respite in our economic war against an Eastern Europe invading Putin, which is turning the ruble to rubble. And the Saudi's will continue to try to cripple our shale oil producers by flooding the world with oil and cornering the market on supplying cash to terrorists.
See how that works? No? Neither do I. But one thing is sure. Uncertainty is rearing its head and Mr Market is in no mood.
Ho ho ho.