For someone with a mouthful of water you sure talk a lot.
Breathe deeper and faster, I can't wait for the silence.
Thank Nixon for the last gasp of silver as currency and petro dollars, trading this country's freedom for slavery to oil interests in the Middle East. The last finger of fate to the Hebrews from the biggest anti Semit to hit the big time.
10 days ago Japan stimulates trillions, markets roar, today's in recession, market fades-as if 10 days of stimulus was supposed to cure instantly, for the "I want it now" generation. (look where Freddy Mercury is today and where he got it NOW). FOMC Minutes should be released on DVD. Investors always look for alternate endings.
But the biggee is the anticipated return of "baby it's cold outside", last year's answer to fading this, lower that. There's evidence to show retail, after 7 lean years, might be turning up, as goyim rush to buy holiday presents, marking time till they're all dead basking in make believe Valhallas. Personally, I like Vikings, girls are prettier, I just wish they had deodorant then.
PPI/CPI, profits thin but that's why PPI/CPI are tame. Housing? Marginal increases. New construction? Last gasp till "baby it's cold outside". Silver safe haven? Meh-bee.
Nov 17 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Nov - 12.0 12.0 6.2 -
Nov 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct - 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% -
Nov 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct - 79.2% 79.3% 79.3% -
Nov 18 8:30 AM PPI Oct - -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -
Nov 18 8:30 AM Core PPI Oct - 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -
Nov 18 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Nov - 54 55 54 -
Nov 18 4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Sep - NA NA $52.1B -
Nov 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/15 - NA NA -0.9% -
Nov 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct - 1000K 1025K 1017K -
Nov 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct - 1050K 1040K 1031K 1018K
Nov 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/15 - NA NA -1.735M -
Nov 19 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 10/29 - - - - -
Nov 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/15 - 285K 285K 290K -
Nov 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/08 - 2375K 2375K 2392K -
Nov 20 8:30 AM CPI Oct - -0.2% -0.1% 0.1% -
Nov 20 8:30 AM Core CPI Oct - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Nov 20 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct - 5.10M 5.17M 5.17M -
Nov 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Nov - 15.0 18.0 20.7 -
Nov 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct - 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% -
Nov 20 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 11/15 -
They've already announced a nickel a month in perpetuity, even if it means return of capital. Yahoo regulars Blodget and Trask have already commented that the junk business is usually the canary in the mine, but "this time may be different". DUH!! with the Fed leaving the building, the rate pop to a whopping 2% overnight rate is already baked in. Like I said, I double down my 34000 shares with another 68,000 come $3.86. This is not hard. And yes, I do own 34,000 share at about $3.95.
MA sheds alligator tears at his "huge responsibility" to shareholders, and today there is another BOND offering on top of the outstanding shares!!! Talk about being FOS!!! Isn't a quarter trillion dollars company value enough?
Market takes a breather, but tomorrow is another day. Oil is crashing, and my price for No 2 is down from $4.17 to $3.90, and headed next delivery for $3.70. Time to barbeque the dog--can afford the fuel, can't afford the beef.
Markets continue to enjoy goldilocks economic numbers. Claims has to be near unchanged, to keep perception the Fed bear is still hibernating. Even silver gets a bounce this morning 13 Nov PM. The Russell 2000 and S and P 500 are neck and neck past couple weeks. Even my dentist thinks the inevitable 2% pop in overnight rates will tresult in exaggerated downward pull. This is easier than it thinks.
Europe just got loosy goosy with liquidity, and Japan trumped everyone with another round of stimulatum
excretatum that has me investing in printing press futures. Nevertheless, sky's the limit on "growth" as Goldilocks prevails, expansion without hitting the higher numbers mean the Fed hasn't excuse to hit the brakes. Wage inflation, the audacity of the worker to gain traction after fifteen years of contraction, is key. With XYZ gen low paid folks replacing the boomers playing their swan song, I don't forsee any meaningful hike in the pittance called hourly wages. Blood's all gone, we're soaking in turnip juice as industry squeezes and squeezes, or just exports jobs to the fourth world. But if you're in the gen market, you're screaming for another 25% pop this year and to my mind most of it will happen between now and Jan, when the June irate pop guesses get played. Until then. wheeee! For gold and silver? Oyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy....
Nov 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/08 - NA NA -2.6% -
Nov 12 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep - -0.1% 0.2% 0.7% -
Nov 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/08 - 285K 281K 278K -
Nov 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/01 - 2350K 2355K 2348K -
Nov 13 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Sep - NA NA 4.835M -
Nov 13 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 11/08 - NA NA 91 bcf -
Nov 13 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 11/08 - NA NA 0.460M -
Nov 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct - NA NA -$90.6B -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Oct - 0.6% 0.3% -0.3% -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Oct - 0.6% 0.3% -0.2% -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct - NA NA -0.2% -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct - NA NA -0.1% -
Nov 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov - 87.5 87.5 86.9 -
Nov 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Sep - 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Go listen. ARR will maintain the five penny dividend even if it means dipping into return of equity. The advantage in a cash account, that part of the nickel isn't taxed. (if you hold this stock in a traditional IRA everything is taxed if you pull it out of the IRA). So the income may falter because of the massive hedge position taken too early, or the loss of 30 year and substitution of shorter term yield, etc, but the nickel divy stays.
How that affects share price is a judgement call by investors who may pinch the stock share price for the penny and a half a quarter, or not given the BV is 130% share price already.
That's the way ARR rolls, and I will be buying more on share weakness. I already own a boatload at $3.95.
Drops to $3.86 I double down. Yup, that means I may have to wait for a couple days ex dividend.
Course it was. 14 million dollars lost to hedging based upon a rate pop that hasn't the reason nor may not considering the feds dovish approach to monetary policy. And how about those 15 yearnotes replacing the 30-year notes to reduce risk even further? & the contraction of leverage? Of course ARR was early to the party. But when the stuff hit the fan and eventually will arr will shine while the rest of the community bites the dust. Buying at these levels below 4 dollars I feel much more confident and I would somewhere else in the junk bond community that hasn't taken this conservative approach