16 Apr Yellen says she's worried about inflation not hitting a target of 2% and jobs and the market takes off as if her job description, yeah, that's her job description, was some kind of tonic. Talk about the definition of smoke (inflation), and mirrors(jobs sux).
Inflation is smoke, not an objective, and we all know smoking leads to cancer. But the new housing picture was a goldilocks number, 1/3rd the pop expected, so existing homes may have a chance at resisting the storm of higher interest rates accompanying the whiff, let alone actual, bond buying tapering--that also seemed to make sense to those of us clinging to the disbelief that the market is made of nothing but lemmings.
In a couple hours, it's claims claims claims. Nothing seems to encourage business to hire, why should they, the 81% working are terrified, wages are stagnant or falling, the government has taken the cost of living out of the cost of living, and corporatocracy rules. And this is under the Democruds. Imagine how "good" it would be under Repukelicans?
One party thinks everything is an entitlement, the other views workers as chickens to their wolves of Wall Street.
Let freedom ring.
Talk about sucked-air rotation. Dow up, but anything below the dragalong S and P is pharting at the Finnish and is WAY down after the morning being solidly up. Look at the Rustled 2000 down, and all that talk about emerging markets? DOWN. Still for contrarian investors buying ops in crushed arenas are developing, as long as recovery limps along. Every time the market goes up "strong", the yammering of Mz Fed Chairman Yellen Rate Popper the 1st whispers in your ear "pop the balloon, the party is over March 2015".
Know how "quick" a business news day it has been? You see a lot of talk about tax day today April 15? Usually the financial talk is ripe with tips and other drivel, commercials, don't forget nonsense.
It almost doesn't exist this year. GLWT.
The co was in the midst of unloading its secondary offering at $7.59--which means, that number has been addressed couple three times and washed out. Now there's that secondary offering reason why that number would wash out, but the technical traders see three or four times your out, consider that a top, and dump.
Don't even try to make sense of what Louis Ruykeyser used to call "the elves" or technical trading, suffice it to say I think they are working false signals, and driving the rest of the cattle over the edge.
Fine with me, I have a dose of cash ready to deploy mid week, and if this fiasco continues, will double down, and double down again.
Thanks for the cheap shares.
Look, there's a lot of RUMOR that the high rollers in Russian are being punished because of the Ukraine situation, and that is cutting into the rich Russian Mafia ability , the part of that ability financially that likes to buy overpriced condos in NY. Never mind they buy for cash, never mind they don't constitute the big dollar impact inside the NY real estate scenario, never mind NYMT is more diversified than just Vlad's interests, it has the APPEARANCE that the NYMortgage business is under fire at some strategic level that affects NYMT with specificity.
It's DRIVEL, NYMT just doesn't rely on the Russian mob's couple dozen high rollers for the entire market, but it sure makes a buying opportunity for those who've added the score, and unlike sellers, haven't suddenly decided one and one make eleven.
This investment is already dealing out a near 15% dividend. I'll be glad to double down at lower prices, and double down AGAIN if we wind up at the year low. This is a priceless opportunity to get in on the cheap in my mumblin opinion
Retail sales SURGE 1% even though it's cold outside. Whee. Until the market reminds itself the Fed is leaving the building, it's up incrementally. Of course, a 1/4% today would translate into 62% a year, if it happened every day, so, to me a 1/4% is terrific. But what do I know, I am not an economist, whose figured out how to get an "A" on a math test by submitting essays.
You think that for retail sales, if good, we're going to get a happy bull market because Baby It was Cold Outside". If bad, do you think we'll get the same excuse?
Do bears do business in the woods?
Say nuts and retch. FOR EARNINGS sing Baby it was cold outside Jan-March timeframe, AGAIN, only with some validity for the entire 1/4-- And yes, a cold March,should "explain" a dismal March report. It "helped" the excuses to have snow early April, but 7% drop met with "we're going to get about a seven percent drop" 7% too late. Did they mean a 14% drop? Hint: They can't even figure 1/4% move in the market is HUGE (62% amortized a year), they call that "slight".
Tell you what. I'll take a quarter point a day forever, but, what do I know, I just do fourth grade math. It's no consolation being right, popularity is more important in this country. Here are the figures already explained by weather, but hey, maybe they'll find there's a Blu Ray edition with easter eggs in it, just like the FOMC repeat performance when they pubbed the month before's notes. That worked out, right? No.
Apr 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Mar - 1.2% 1.0% 0.3% -
Apr 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Mar - 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% -
Apr 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Feb - 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% -
Apr 15 8:30 AM CPI Mar - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Apr 15 8:30 AM Core CPI Mar - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Apr 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Apr - 7.5 7.5 5.6 -
Apr 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Feb - NA NA $7.3B -
Apr 15 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Apr - 51 50 47 -
Apr 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 04/12 - NA NA -1.6% -
Apr 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Mar - 910K 955K 907K -
Apr 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Mar - 980K 1003K 1018K -
Apr 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Mar - 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% -
Apr 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Mar - 78.9% 78.8% 78.4% 78.8%
Apr 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 04/12 - NA NA 4.030M -
Apr 16 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Apr - NA NA NA -
Apr 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/12 - 320K 312K 300K -
Apr 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 04/05 - 2800K 2800K 2776K -
Apr 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Apr - 9.0 8.6 9.0 -
Apr 17 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 04/12 - NA NA 4 bcf
Just a question.
Sucked air rotation gets a reprieve, as the NAS recovers, JOLTS shows somebody is hiring out there in Micky D land, but it's more retail workers and clerks. Today the world will slather over FOMC minute meeting notes a month old as if playing the same movie over results in a different ending. Don't try to reason with the 2PM bumble Wednesday 9 Apreeel--just watch the dots and spots as the FOMC meeting notes beat to death in real time last month, get to replay the same DVD, not a sequel, no easter eggs, no alternate endings.
Speaking of spot, watch silver take another two percent ride to the downside as somebody is out there voting for paper dollars, which as you know have an industrial side, if you run out of Charmin.
Alcoa had a blowout, and that has been a bullish traditional sign since black and white TV. I suspect we'll be up in the morning, down by 2:30, and finish a few points up all the indexes.
Don't knock it, a 1/4% today amortizes to 62% in a year. Don't tell the analysts, they can't do 4th grade math.
HFT front runs the market this week on the downside, as another five percent beating lays in store. The fundamentals are laughable, the slightest tick in the wrong direction sends the nano second plunderers off to their software shell game, and the market, filled with pundits spouting nonsense, turns into a open and notorious roulette board. GOOG and PCLN are on their way to 10% corrections early on, maybe 20% before the end of month. Bad news is bad news, good news is bad news, the excuses are already primed, and the FOMC at the mouth minute meetings Tuesday will not help. If claims jumps, it's bad, if claims falls, there goes QE, it's bad. Just as you think you can come up for air, the HFT phantoms strike micro flash crash style. Construction jobs were up last week tho, just what we need, more houses to supply more glut to come, just when housing is about to take a whammy next year due to irate increases postulated by Madame Fed Chairman Yellen Rate Popper the 1st. Got cash?
One good thing about paper money, it's soft under your mattress. Gold and silver are lumpy. GLWT
Apr 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Feb - $13.5B $14.3B $13.7B -
Apr 8 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Feb - NA NA 3.974M -
Apr 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 04/05 - NA NA -1.2% -
Apr 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Feb - 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% -
Apr 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 04/05 - NA NA -2.379M -
Apr 9 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 3/19 - - - - -
Apr 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/05 - 325K 325K 326K -
Apr 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/29 - 2850K 2843K 2836K -
Apr 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Mar - NA NA 0.6% -
Apr 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Mar - NA NA -0.2% -
Apr 10 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 04/05 - NA NA -74 bcf -
Apr 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Mar - NA NA -$106.5B -
Apr 11 8:30 AM PPI Mar - 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% -
Apr 11 8:30 AM Core PPI Mar - 0.1% 0.1% -0.2% -
Apr 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Apr - 81.0 81.0 80.0 -
Madam Chairman Yelen Rate Popper the 1ST let the bears out. Don't you like healhy corections?
Turn your head and cough.
Popndropoff, the new rushin dictator of the stock market.
Crimea river? Stay tuned.
Somebody is claiming a glut of oil and sinking to $85 a barrel, all of which we'll never see coming into the hiking season--no, not you in your boots, you taking a drive in this balmy overdue Spring. A reprieve from disappointing housing? Forget it, that's Feb they're pointing to, and cars? baby it's--oh you get it--you never left the comforts of NFLX on the big screen, which is why that stock falling, along with GOOG, is the canary in the mine shaft last week. The choice? pure technical trading, since the oh no's, and the oh boys! have the field about fifty fifty.
The vacuum is about to be filled with the Crimea as Pukin does his imitation of Hitler and Ukraine does its imitation of the Alsace, and we? We sit hurling harsh language.
Probably from a drone, all the way back in DC
Mar 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Mar - NA NA 59.8 -
Apr 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Mar - NA NA 53.2 -
Apr 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Feb - NA NA 0.1% -
Apr 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Mar - NA NA 5.2M -
Apr 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Mar - NA NA 7.0M -
Apr 2 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/29 - NA NA -3.5% -
Apr 2 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Mar - NA NA 139K -
Apr 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders Feb - NA NA -0.7% -
Apr 2 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/29 - NA NA 6.619M -
Apr 3 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Mar - NA NA -24.4% -
Apr 3 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/29 - NA NA 311K -
Apr 3 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/22 - NA NA 2823K -
Apr 3 8:30 AM Trade Balance Feb - NA NA -$39.1B -
Apr 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Mar - NA NA 51.6 -
Apr 3 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/29 - NA NA -57 bcf -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Mar - NA NA 175K -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Mar - NA NA 162K -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Mar - NA NA 6.7% -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Mar - NA NA 0.4% -
Apr 4 8:30 AM Average Workweek Mar - NA NA 34.2
Putin invades Crimea like Hitler took France's Alsace Lorraine--while the world hurls harsh language.
Madam Chairman Yellen RatePopper the 1st announces the economy is so terrific, she can start popping overnight rates March 2015 FOMC meeting 1/4% a quarter for the next two years. Mortgage rates will blast off, led by declining housing prices, which now are only at January 2004 levels. Good luck with that.
Nobody believes Yellen has it right, because the FED NEVER calls the turn of the economy right. NEVER.
This time they're 3 years too early. And stocks like GOOG and PCLN and AAPL are the canaries in the coal mine.
27 March we didn't even BOTHER with popndrop, we just dropped the general market. I am sorry, but betting the miners against the SLV is folly, you just wind up with a boomerang day dragging SLW 4 percent to the downside. If you can't handle the truth, then far be it for me to convince you otherwise.
Claims is down 20K, average down 80K, so silver is off 1/2%--but WAIT! Good news is bad news, that gives Yellen reason to pop irates March 2015 3 years too soon, so the pop PM has receded, and I expect it to falter end of day worse--Whenever Spring comes (looks like mid April,) the looky loo home buyers will be motivated as this is the "last summer" for low irates.
How many $400K homes can Mom and Pop working at Micky D's afford? Stay tuned, in the meantime, silver and gold appear to be heading lower, and the market appears to have rolled over, because the analysts are swarming over "it ain't over till I sold today" renditions of their favorite song "Me first, I don't answer to anybody".
It's been a hit since 1929.