...and Yellen balks proving once again, the market makes us all fools--companies, investors, and now a Fed trapped by its own ZIRP...Will we get to play this again Oct, Nov etc.?
Do bears defecate in the woods? In the meantime, a world of turtles ever so slowly peek out from under shells that should have been blown away but t'werent. We limp upward rest of the month imho.
Here's a hint--as long as rate pops loom, credit cards will look like the dessert in summer this winter retail season. Hopefully, some folks will take enough off the table to buy presents. But not TOO many.
Interest rates will go up.
After a considerable time, of course.
If the core CPI is as zilch as PPI, why even talk about rate raises should be "let's talk now, while we're not in panic mode". We're going from "extended time" to "data dependent" to "AND really parse the data". That will allow everyone to draw inferences they want to hear, and leave us with the best case scenario--a blah market. Time will tell, and it's hours off.
The market is making a fool of me on Tuesday the 16th--production, capacity underutilized but hey--core and beyond CPI PPI "inflation" excluding food clothing shelter, insurance, vitamins, roootabagas, and bagels is ZERO. ZERO, which gives the Fed excuse to stave off pulling the ZIRP dagger out of the economy's chest, and having it bleed out back into Recession. So that's the bet BUT MREITS etc, are on sale, they are having none of this enthusiasm and are on sale baby.
Guess who be nibbling, mama.
Could go lower, but wow, I can't complain. ARR is already positioned for shorter term notes, and will ride this well--but don't tell the lemmings, I have plenty of dry powder.
pokes more holes in this market's balloon. I am doubling down every ten cents off the top.
Corrupt shows a degree of awareness, a plan, beginning, middle, with an endgame.
Clueless- raising rates forcing more of joesixpac's meager coins into bank and credit card coffers-while touting opposite? You can teach the ignorant--you cannot fix stupid.
All eyes on Fed as the markets show dread, off 1/3rd % yet again pre market 15 Sep. All else is ignored as a Fed which should never have ever meddled with market rates misguidedly turns a corner after believing unemployment stats which don't reflect those who've given up, whose jobs have been computerized, ar sent to the third world. It's market rollover time, you in cash yet? Silver's industrial side weighs like an anchor.
Good eco news is bad Fed motivation to raise rates. Bad eco news is just that. It's heads I lose, tails you win, as markets stampede this week. Ugh. Not happy.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Sep 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Sep - 10.0 16.0 14.7 -
Sep 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Oct - NA NA NA -
Sep 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Aug - 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -
Sep 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Aug - 79.3% 79.3% 79.2% -
Sep 16 8:30 AM PPI Aug - 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -
Sep 16 8:30 AM Core PPI Aug - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
Sep 16 4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jul - NA NA -$18.7B -
Sep 17 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/13 - NA NA -7.2% -
Sep 17 8:30 AM CPI Aug - 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -
Sep 17 8:30 AM Core CPI Aug - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -
Sep 17 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q2 - -$112.0B -$114.5B -$111.2B -
Sep 17 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Sep - 56 56 55 -
Sep 17 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/13 - NA NA -0.972M -
Sep 17 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Sep - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Sep 18 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/13 - 310K 305K 315K -
Sep 18 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/06 - 2490K 2945K 2487K -
Sep 18 8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug - 990K 1045K 1093K -
Sep 18 8:30 AM Building Permits Aug - 1050K 1054K 1052K -
Sep 18 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Sep - 15 23.5 28.0 -
Sep 18 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 09/13 - NA NA 92 bcf -
Sep 19 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Aug - 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% -
The Fed must be, since their misguided mumbling to come 17 Sep is turning markets to a blood bath again wee hours 15 Sep
Welcome to the new taper tantrum as the Fed bangs the drum and the cattle stampede. ARR has already positioned itself with shorter term yield from the last scare fall of last year.
Could we hit $3.64 again? Sure. By then, I will be all in.
Everything else is gravy, but that doesn't mean lower share prices may not loom. Barely anyone understands this is a royalty co, not a miner, and with the Fed meddling and babbling badly next week on overnight rates, the market is being encouraged to implode.
The FOMC language next week is the way markets anticipate--as the end of easy money dissipates, looming rate hikes using the same misguided meddling that never should have lowered them in he first place, spell disaster for both silver and gold, as if a 50% haircut off peak valuations isn't enough signal. I'm half cash by weekend, next week the carbuncle on the bottom of the market's unsteady footwork, Fed "policy" overshadows any burgeoning economic news--good news is bad for easy money, bad news is bad, these are not good odds for longs anywhere in my mumblin opinion. GLTA.
...and like clockwork, yahoo financial pundits are raging this AM 9/11 not with remembrances of the attack, but the Fed meeting next week which "might" change language pointing the way to higher overnight rates, as if that isn't a fait accompli around Spring 2015 per Yellens vote for six months post tapering bond buying. Yields are creeping upward, inspite of the US economy being the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry bin--and will only last as long as it takes for Europe to gain traction it overlooked in its corrrect, but lonely assumption to pursue austerity in a vacuum. If the US had played along, we all might have avoided this bubble, but look at the dollar improving--which kills exports according to some, and will only get "worse" by getting stronger.
You know what that does to the lemmings who might be in gold and silver, it aint good. GLTA.
Down wee hours, up end of day, and vice versa, it's reversal flip a coin daily as good economic news, not necessarily valid, vies with impending rate hikes. We'll know by end of this buying season, if the slightest hint joesixpac gets an over due raise, the system can only tolerate shoveling money to the banks. Perish forbid joe get any relief in fifteen years of middle class wage contraction, on top of about 30% inflation all goods and services. In the meantime, the currency end of silver remains an anchor and the dollar gets a boost from Europe's three year's too late credit increase and money printing, which normally does not spell good news for stocks over there, and Chinese junk continues to sell well, witness the long return lines at Home Depot.
Sep 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jul - $17.0B $17.8B $17.3B -
Sep 9 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Jul - NA NA 4.671M -
Sep 10 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/06 - NA NA 0.2% -
Sep 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul - 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -
Sep 10 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/06 - NA NA -0.905M -
Sep 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/06 - 310K 300K 302K -
Sep 11 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/30 - 2500K 2495K 2464K -
Sep 11 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 09/06 - NA NA 79 bcf -
Sep 11 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug - NA NA -$147.9B -
Sep 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug - 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% -
Sep 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% -
Sep 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug - NA NA 0.3% -
Sep 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug - NA NA 0.0% -
Sep 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep - 83.5 83.5 82.5 -
Sep 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul - 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% -
but there's always some #$%$ that can't wake up after two years and smell the coffee.
Market up in the morning and sells off in the afternoon, not fun. Folks don't like good news, it zpooks the Fed into raising rates next year, when they shouldn't be touched until 2022.
Your best bet is selling covered calls monthly against this stock and turning it into a dividend like play.