Yo Sharpster--the other name for Workers is Customers--don't pay them enough to buy what little there's left they produce? Best hope exports carry the country and the rest of the world buys what little we do make--which up to now, is big ticket items in Defense and things like airplanes. But don't tell that to Boeing--they're getting to open up a plant in China--all they have to do is surrender all their century long how-to-manufacture data to the Red Chinese.
See how that is working? No? Me neither. Now it's back to the job. You want biggee fries with that burger?
Expect a runup to 4 July, but good news is bad news, vice versa, and the economy, is trash city per GDP figures previous week. Yellen thinks food and fuel inflation are "noise". She's right, the noise outside her window is everyone asking for her head. Still, siphoning joe's money from corporations charging too much for Chinese produced goods and giving it to banks doesn't help joe, he just gets a new slave owner, which is the real charter of the Fed per Jefferson. Thomas, not incumbent George Jefferson, whose idea of movin on up is a management job at White Castle. Half of America can't pay taxes, 21% of America is underwater in bloated mortgages-- Yellen has to induce 20% inflation next few years to reflate real estate values to give us the illusion we're getting well--same way the govt "pays" off the debt with degraded dollars. In debt we trust, see how that works? It all has a silver lining tho.
Jun 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jun - NA NA 65.5 -
Jun 30 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May - NA NA 0.4% -
Jul 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending May - NA NA 0.2% -
Jul 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jun - NA NA 55.4 -
Jul 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jun - NA NA 5.7M -
Jul 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jun - NA NA 7.7M -
Jul 2 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 06/28 - NA NA -1.0% -
Jul 2 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jun - NA NA 45.5% -
Jul 2 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jun - NA NA 179K -
Jul 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders May - NA NA 0.7% -
Jul 2 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/28 - NA NA 1.742M -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jun - NA NA 217K -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun - NA NA 216K -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jun - NA NA 6.3% -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jun - NA NA 0.2% -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jun - NA NA 34.5 -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/28 - NA NA NA -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/21 - NA NA NA -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Trade Balance May - NA NA -$47.2B -
Jul 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jun - NA NA 56.3 -
Jul 3 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 06/28 - N
I completely blew it. I thought terrible news on the GDP front would decimate the market, just the opposite happened. Folks obviously believe, the worse the economy gets in the real world, the more the Fed will crank up the printing presses. I made no new bets, but juggled options I sold against my holdings a bit, and cranked out a 1.2% profit being long and hedged, for the day, I was AMAZED and hovered over shorting some of my favorite losers but never, wisely, or in this case, luckily, pulling any triggers.
Not only are the insane in charge of the institution, they nap through hurricanes and tornadoes Un-Employment figures are up for grabs this morning as are payrolls, which in my mumbling opinion, will show smaller numbers as joe continues to take part time jobs, and salaries across the board whither in the face of inflation in food and fuel Yellen calls "noise".
Not that she can do anything about it--raising rates just gives us a new payee--the banks, instead of corporations producing nonessentials like food fuel and clothing etc. See how that works? No? Me neither.
But expect bargain hunting for sure.
Jun 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders May -1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation May -0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Jun 25 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q1 -2.9% -1.8% -1.8% -1.0% -
Jun 25 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q1 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% -
All four indicators 0830 26 June down massively. Looks like a triple digit downer for today's market, but silver recovered nicely, so far, from 3/4% selloff overnight and is now flat.
That's an achievement, considering the #$%$ economic figures.
America has been on the decline since the end of WWII. And just in case you accidentally wander into a voting booth one day, there are some things you should know, and one of them is that there is absolutely no evidence to support the statement that the US is still the greatest country in the world. We're seventh in literacy, twenty-seventh in math, twenty-second in science, forty-ninth in life expectancy, 178th in infant mortality, third in median household income and dropping, number four in labor force and 1/3rd improvement since 2008 is in part time Micky D style jobs, and we're number four in exports. We lead the world in only three categories: number of incarcerated citizens per capita, number of adults who believe angels are real, and defense spending, where we spend more than the next twenty-six countries combined, twenty-five of whom are allies not pulling their own weight. None of this is the fault of today's kids but, unless they reverse course and get us off the paper standard for money, they will go down as--without a doubt, a member of the WORST-period-GENERATION-period-EVER-period.
So when you disdain commodity investments like hard tack silver and gold the only investment worth considering, I don't know whatthephukkk you're talking about?!
Yosemite?!!! (With apologies to "Newsroom" circa 2012)
21% of America is under water, so those looking for existing homes have such a tight market, not only will interest rates have to be kept arbitrarily low forever, new homes come in to fill the gap.
Housing is key, to understanding nothing about the stock market except builders, which is so 1948. Still, even bigger fools in the market have to take a breather.
Existing home sales shows a slight increase as looky loos come off the shelf thinking, this may be the last summer that loan rates are low, and the last of the cash buyers plays the game before they are all cashed out. The market doesn't like that one bit, but the silver and gold folks see the handwriting on the wall, the days of easy homeowner sales depends on joehomeownertoB having the creds and the higher paying jobs to carry the mortgage--it aint there, the lower end of the housing spectrum that usually leads the way, ain't there, it's the upper end getting farther and farther out of reach.
But silver and gold is screaming, and SLW is too, so there is a silver lining.
Hey! That's pretty catchy? (Barf)
Vacation meant missing last week's wonderful FED fiasco, as we continue to Duck the Ukraine, which is for the birds. When Iraq rolls back the markets, you can bet those with general market losses will Crimea river, which may be good for gold and silver. Don't you just love making more worthless dollars in paper silver stocks like SLV, or miners, on the misery and death of others? Me too, I have to start relooking at defense stocks like Blockhead Marvin, and No-onegrumblin, and MarvinMarietta, jaunty alloowetta. How I love the smell of napalm in the morning, Duvall of you too I imagine. This was the week that was:
Jun 16 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jun 19.3 14.0 12.8 19.0 -
Jun 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr -$24.2B NA NA $4.1B $4.0B
Jun 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production May 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% -0.3% -0.6%
Jun 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization May 79.1% 79.0% 78.9% 78.9% 78.6%
Jun 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 49 46 46 45 -
Jun 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts May 1001K 1000K 1028K 1071K 1072K
Jun 17 8:30 AM Building Permits May 991K 1060K 1050K 1059K 1080K
Jun 17 8:30 AM CPI May 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Jun 17 8:30 AM Core CPI May 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% -
Jun 18 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 06/14 -9.2% NA NA +10.3% -
Jun 18 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q1 -$111.2B -$98.5B -$97.8B -$87.3B -$81.1B
Jun 18 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/14 -0.579M NA NA -2.596M -
Jun 18 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jun 0.25% NA NA 0.25% -
Jun 19 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/14 312K 310K 313K 318K 317K
Jun 19 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/07 2561K 2625K 2638K 2615K 2614K
Jun 19 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jun 17.8 13.0 13.4 15.4 -
Jun 19 10:00 AM Leading Indicators May 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Jun 19 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 06/14 113 bcf NA NA 107 bcf -
With last week's FOMC a distant wisp of a memory, Yellen the dove talked what we all know, at least, all of us who can reason know, the following: If joehomeownertoB has lost 26% buying power since 9/11 ($57.5K salary then, minus $6K NUMERICALLY, minus about $8K in inflation that doesn't count in the CPI like food and fuel), you've got to keep mortgage rates, and hence irates, low enough to make up SOME of the difference to keep reflating home prices--FOREVER), THEN--THAT is BULLISH for gold and silver. Hence the 5% pop the next day.
If you think that's good, wait till we get out to about Feb 2015 and we blow over the irate pops she supposedly has waiting in the wings for us then. Here's hoping, since we only garner prosperity by trashing the paper dollar, so we're exporting everything to everyone, eventually, for nothing.
See how that works? No? Me Neither, but you don't point your sails opposite the wind. It's liable to blow upyourazz. GLTA
Jun 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales May - NA NA 4.65M -
Jun 24 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr - NA NA 12.4% -
Jun 24 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Apr - NA NA 0.7% -
Jun 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales May - NA NA 433K -
Jun 24 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jun - NA NA 83.0 -
Jun 25 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 06/21 - NA NA -9.2% -
Jun 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders May - NA NA 0.6% 0.8%
Jun 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation May - NA NA 0.3% 0.1%
Jun 25 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q1 - NA NA -1.0% -
Jun 25 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q1 - NA NA 1.3% -
Jun 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/21 - NA NA -0.579M -
Jun 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/21 - NA NA 312K -
Jun 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/14 - NA NA 2561K -
Jun 26 8:30 AM Personal Income May - NA NA 0.3% -
Jun 26 8:30 AM Personal Spending May - NA NA -0.1% -
Jun 26 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core May - NA NA 0.2% -
Jun 26 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 06/21 - NA NA 113 bcf -
Jun 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jun - NA NA 81.2 -
Blather by Yellen Madam Chairman Rate Popper the First, "while improved, the lackluster jobs created past two years have us wondering if, while inflation stays low, interest rates should be "adjusted". The Fed will need to see three quarters of inflation, not one month, before reacting. Meantime, lop another 10B in buying power off of the bond buying program, and see you next March when I blathered about hiking rates a quarter point, some two months ago in off the cuff remarks I will regret to my dying day"
So shorts, line up to get burned again.
Vince already explained the timing of the new subscription venture, damned if he did it, damned if he didn't.