The Fed seems to want to let XMAS go thru unfettered, hoping nobody minds irate pops next year crippling the payback for all thos fall season binges, and there is pent up demand after five years, but that isn't helping the Sept doldrums. Folks are abandoning junk bonds, leaving bargains in their wake, but I'll wait for thew turn before adding. Same for silver and gold, CPI shows deflation last week, not even a whisper out of Yellen.
ZIRP A DEE DOO DAH.
Sep 22 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Aug - 5.0M 5.2M 5.15M -
Sep 23 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jul - NA NA 0.4% -
Sep 24 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/20 - NA NA +7.9% -
Sep 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug - 420K 435K 412K -
Sep 24 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/20 - NA NA +3.67M -
Sep 25 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/20 - 310K 300K 280K -
Sep 25 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/13 - 2490K 2470K 2429K -
Sep 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders Aug - -18.5% -16.3% 22.6% -
Sep 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Aug - 0.4% 0.7% -0.7% -0.8%
Sep 25 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 09/20 - NA NA 90 bcf -
Sep 26 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q2 - 4.6% 4.6% 4.2% -
Sep 26 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 - 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% -
Sep 26 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep - 84.6 85.0 84.6 -
Actually, high yield bond funds aren't "waiting" for the next Fed cliffhanger pretty much across the high yield spectrum.
And I am buying doubling down every 10 cents.
I just hope volume doesn't crash the exchange AGAIN.
With Yellen cowering before ZIRP, full steam ahead as ALIBABBLE and YARHOO take trader interest today.
Is ALIBABBLE the new GORGLE? This is going to be insane.
While the lemmings make believe they know how to trade, some of us are looking for income. Drop a dime, I double my position. I got three more doubles to play. $400,000 worth nets you $60 grand a year. People worry that principal will drop, but they'll go out and buy an annuity, give up the entire $400,000 and get a whopping $16,000 a year for the privilege. I ain't that brittle and got better fish to fry.
...and Yellen balks proving once again, the market makes us all fools--companies, investors, and now a Fed trapped by its own ZIRP...Will we get to play this again Oct, Nov etc.?
Do bears defecate in the woods? In the meantime, a world of turtles ever so slowly peek out from under shells that should have been blown away but t'werent. We limp upward rest of the month imho.
Here's a hint--as long as rate pops loom, credit cards will look like the dessert in summer this winter retail season. Hopefully, some folks will take enough off the table to buy presents. But not TOO many.
Interest rates will go up.
After a considerable time, of course.
If the core CPI is as zilch as PPI, why even talk about rate raises should be "let's talk now, while we're not in panic mode". We're going from "extended time" to "data dependent" to "AND really parse the data". That will allow everyone to draw inferences they want to hear, and leave us with the best case scenario--a blah market. Time will tell, and it's hours off.
The market is making a fool of me on Tuesday the 16th--production, capacity underutilized but hey--core and beyond CPI PPI "inflation" excluding food clothing shelter, insurance, vitamins, roootabagas, and bagels is ZERO. ZERO, which gives the Fed excuse to stave off pulling the ZIRP dagger out of the economy's chest, and having it bleed out back into Recession. So that's the bet BUT MREITS etc, are on sale, they are having none of this enthusiasm and are on sale baby.
Guess who be nibbling, mama.
Could go lower, but wow, I can't complain. ARR is already positioned for shorter term notes, and will ride this well--but don't tell the lemmings, I have plenty of dry powder.
pokes more holes in this market's balloon. I am doubling down every ten cents off the top.