Blaming pre market sell off jitters on the fookin Russian ploy--you might as well blame spoiled milk in your refrigerator. Raft of numbers but my bet is day will improve on car sales. I'm not worried, I called my broker and told him Monday is too volatile to count, so I can't lose. Don't cry, you coud be sitting in he bathroom like Brad Pitt clutching your Oscar and whining "Gee I miss those #$%$". Don't expect housing to hit Summer 2006 levels however till 2025. That's more than 12 years a slave.
Can't miss PM this morning, they're up 1%. With 19-24 bucks the range look where you are. I guarentee there is more up there than down.
Snow missed NY but is going to pummel DC. See, sometimes random events coincide with karmic justice, just like today,s market plotz. Must be Gravity.
There's a sentiment, that if increases over Dec in existing home sales occurs, we're off to the races.
That's the sentiment. Reality at 10AM, and it looks to me checking my neighborhood, it's time for more "baby it's cold outside" as temperatures drop to 15 degrees on the East Coast, that drivel may sell today.
I went back to the new home sales jump, and it's worse than I figured--with existing homes off the market, new home sales are glutting the industry with more unneeded housing--unneeded in the sense that, with the huge overhang of built home 2002-2007 still on the market, the malaise of 2007-2012 and resultant Micky D salaries garnered by the marginally employed the statisticians like to tout as a "recovering" economy in the housing industry means, pending some sales in January, now piped in just after 28 Feb's opening bell-- are even more important for this bellwether to be evaluated.
Methinks even with the pop of nearly 10% in new homes over last reporting period, the lack of existing homes, the bulk of the market, will drive that stat into the toilet. How many $25K a year part timers are looking for a $250K house or $3500 flat screen? Take your time, but you won't go past fingers and toes to calculate that one.
"Pent up demand" is just like "it's too cold, to look for a job, to buy retail brick and mortar, blah blah blah". And Yellen threw out the first can of oil on waters yesterday, assuring tapering and buying bonds was a two way street if it wasn't the winter holding the economy back. As if throwing more money at the banks solved anything but bank investor problems. I'll never understand why they can't continue to rape America from behind bars, all you need is a tablet and appropriate apps to conduct business.
Silver, all over the place yesterday, inched forward, and is now PM 28 Feb sliding backward double the inch, about 1/2%. The overall market is also cringing. Not a bad week however, for those who think, the bull is out of fuel.
Jobs jobs jobs. Construction spending up? all those new homes filling the vacancy left by (non) existing home sellers--personal income and factory orders? stagnant 5th year in a row as the unemployed 4% now working are in part time Micky D labor pool, so, why pay "real" workers more, hire more, or build inventory for people not paid enough to buy it! ADP 5 March numbers will anticipate 6-7 Mar continuing and non farm payroll numbahs, nofarm named when farms mattered 75 years ago. Should be more low numbers, more "it was too cold" excuses, only, will that continue to fly?
Ain't too certain. GLWT
Mar 3 8:30 AM Personal Income Jan - NA NA 0.0% -
Mar 3 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jan - NA NA 0.4% -
Mar 3 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Jan - NA NA 0.1% -
Mar 3 10:00 AM ISM Index Feb - NA NA 51.3 -
Mar 3 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jan - NA NA 0.1% -
Mar 3 2:00 PM Auto Sales Feb - NA NA 5.1M -
Mar 3 2:00 PM Truck Sales Feb - NA NA 7.0M -
Mar 5 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/01 - NA NA -8.5% -
Mar 5 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Feb - NA NA 175K -
Mar 5 10:00 AM ISM Services Feb - NA NA 54.0 -
Mar 5 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/01 - NA NA 0.068M -
Mar 5 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Mar - NA NA NA -
Mar 6 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Feb - NA NA 47.3% -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/01 - NA NA NA -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/22 - NA NA NA -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q4 - NA NA 3.2% -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Rev Q4 - NA NA -1.6% -
Mar 6 10:00 AM Factory Orders Jan - NA NA -1.5% -
Mar 6 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/01 - NA NA NA -
Mar 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Feb - NA NA 113K -
Mar 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Feb - NA NA 142K -
Mar 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Feb - NA NA 6.6% -
Mar 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Feb - NA NA 0.2% -
Mar 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Feb - NA NA 34.4 -
Mar 7 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jan - NA NA -$38.7B -
Mar 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jan - NA NA $1
in that, substitute silver for tickets, and the contracted for price minus open market as net profit, and voila, you've hit the mark on the head. The issue, is just how much the markup, given the POS, and the relation to this non Miner--it's more like the PCLN model, except the PCLN cut is more stable.
See how that works?
Looks like compared to late night 26 Feb when silver was down and the market up, a scant 6 hours later, the stock market is off 1/2%, and silver is up 2/3rds%. After five years of "recovery", it appears to me the market is rolling over and the easy money has been long made, short lost. I'm glad I sold covered calls against my SLV position on shares I acquired during the 3% downdraft yesterday anyway--they expire in a week or so while I watch all this rock and roll.
Claims claims claims is the pre market highlight of the day. What excuse today? Too cold to look for a job, if claims pop, or too cold to line up outside the unemployment office, if claims drop? And looky here, the tax assessment came in the mail and they've increased the tax assessment my hovel by TEN PERCENT, so zillow registers a 1.5% overnight pop bringing the total back from 7% off the top valuation last October, to just a minus 5.5%. Making sense is as rare as finding a for sale sign in my neighborhood.
Baby it's cold outside, the excuse for economic doldrums, has the market chasing its own tail. When does the game of musical chairs stop? When cold gives way to warmth, and is no longer an excuse, when somebody figures out $25K a year Micky D level "new jobs" can't help folks buy $250K homes and $3500 flatscreens, Obunglecare is a concrete inner tube around the economic neck of the country, and the Fed has left the building, as they NEVER call the turn in the economy correctly.
Why not sell just using the internet and close all brick and mortar stores you don't use as warehouses country wide? Isn't that new and novel, and saves costs!!
Oh wait a minute, isn't that what Amazon does?
I was wrong, the stats show the largest growth in new home sales since 2007! Quick to add, existing home apps for mortgages took up all of the slack to the downside. It is as if, if you're going to buy a home, might as well buy a new one, and conversely, existing home sellers aren't providing inventory, so new homes are picking up the slack. This is a blip in my humble opinion, but don't tell the stock market, or the POS which nosedived on the news of the new home resurgence, as if it was meaningful.
It's better to talk about the bear than be chased by him, and get out of the way of the bulls, or hold their tails and get dragged along. For new home builders soaring on the news? This will not end well, but ending badly will not come today.
26 Feb new home sales will suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck big time, because inventory isn't being built and overhang still exists from the over exuberant end of 2013. Same scenario as today? Down then up then down? And a direction of up and down between 19 and 24 is still the game.
Wow, I nailed it until just after lunch, when somebody must have read the rest of the shill in the Schiller numbers. Amazingly, houses in my neighborhood jumped one percent from Sunday to Tuesday the 25th, as those numbers in zillow probably are the last to get massaged.
Afternoon, everybody took off, except those with faith in the little guy, the Russell 2000, that I watch and invest in.
Today I made a couple G's. I worked for it.
Holy Schit, the Case Shiller index is touting 2 0 1 3 price increases near 14%, without a whiff of the past TWO MONTHS of price softening--what is this, when the tschit hits the fan, they going to blame the weather and Bush? This is getting ridiculous.
One good thing, the Index mentioned what I have been talking to about three to four months, the price of homes is back up to "Spring 2004 levels" and that is a quote. I should sue for plagerism--I have also been talking about SEVEN PERCENT off that top since the tapering drivel for three months, I guess Case Schiller catches up with me in about eight weeks, when they can't hide behind those thrilling days of yesteryear.
Wow this is blatant pump city. Well, some of the futures losses in the general market have wayned, john, so the silver lining is fool's gold is selling like, well, silver ETF's, which is just bout the the same thing, I rectum.
And you don't fight the bull run, you just change boots more often following the snorts and droppings, and be ready to turn (not so easy, those boots get slippery) when the time comes.
About three weeks of warm weather, when all that "pent up demand" for new and existing homes comes out of the igloo and tries to turn 25K a year into home buying qualification. Hint: Mom, Dad, two teens working full time, at $25K a year, can manage a lot of home loan with $100K, 28% LTV including principal, interest taxes and insurance, about a $400K loan. I can think of three families situated that way.
The rest? Food stamp city.
Another lousy stat morning for the housing industry, beginning a lousy housing related week in general economic-housing slowly smothering assaulted b increasing mortgage rates, brought to you by a Fed misleading itself with doctored government stats they actually believe! a Fed leaving the artificially low interest rate environment, while joesixpac's salary's are likewise, lower in 2014 than they were in 2002 by 10% nominally. They should be UP 30%. This is a
Isn't the Fed's error the same STYLE error made in mortgage loan solvency by the mortgage makers? Lower and lower quality mortgage holders, artificially propelling higher home valuations, until it all collapses like the Emperor's New Clothes? Now it's tepid worthless part time Micky D jobs being called "employment" as if the quality of job and quantity of pay doesn't count.
It's all Bad stats leading to worse behavior? Until when, early spring when stats no longer have "baby it was cold outside" as an excuse? April, anyone for CD's?
The market is off a smidge this morning, as housing industry shows its weak head PM. I'll be the first to say that housing, once the bellwether of US economy, has slipped in importance from the lofty heights of the 40's-70's, it's just not that big an impact in the economy. But that's due to birth rate declines--the only reason why it's even where it is today, is boomers are living to 85, not 65, which might give housing a reprieve for a while--but you'd be better in nursing home futures. And illegal immigrants? No wonder they'll be blessed soon, we need the bodies!
Silver is on again off again, now off 1%. Read an article saying don't go near silver, it goes down as much as it goes up, as if range bound, you can't make winning bets on $19-$24-$19 every other DAY and make money. The article assumed buy and hold, best argument for "dumb money" I have heard.
Silver is off almost 1% PM, I think the market will start lower, end higher until Spring. GLTA
Wave goodbye, we're 15% short, of the top while busy making excuses for a lousy economy, like, the "weather".
Past excuses the bottom falls out, but they've got 6 weeks of winter to blowhard.
You're too early to the bonfire.
World cranks back a bunch and they'll have you believing its China whose growth rate has slowed from 5746% a year to 5745% -- the rate for shoddy trinkets and fractured hand towels shrinks like Norman Bates keyholing his teacher through a bedroom door. Nonetheless, there's less and none in the macroeconomic side to write about today, so US futures are up a tad, as no news is good news, and bad news makes folks think the Fed will balk and either stop the exit from stimulatum excretatum, or. Silver is surging, as the trading range of 19-24 reasserts itself, but be careful, as you know whatever the bull leaves behind is what you step in when the bull leaves the scene. Looks like a 1% add on PM for no other earthly reason at all. SLW used to be connected to the POS, but it's long disassociated with a direct day to day, even minute to minute up and down strike. Others may want to play with AGQ or SLV, be careful what you keep company with.
Here to disappoint tomorrow however, is the Case Schiller and housing price indices, but don't worry, it's that cold weather excuse time! which has at least a month to run before people start to get really nervous. Best hope for cold weather until July if you're holding long--It might be a good time to pop an out of the money call when silver reaches $23 if you're holding. I like that approach good bad or indifferent times, just be prepared to be called away and take your lumps, repositioning at higher call levels for the following month only makes sense about one time or so mathematically, and close to expiration generally.
Want a contrarian play? Try MREITS which wither in a rising interest rate environment. The advantage here? you can sell covered calls and protect principal, the stocks have had the tar wailed out of them already, and they pay north of 11% divvy's. See how that MIGHT work?
and it's been that way for a while. When is this thing going to split, it's getting the Berkshire blues?
Nada. I just merged the two personalities after binge watching Bates Motel and House of Cards on NFLX and went back to the nom de plume of my dead buddy who was killed in Vietnam. It seemed healthier at the time. Not by much, but healthier.
That'll be this week's excuse, the numbers aren't very good because of the weather--well--in case you haven't noticed, 0-25 just became 25-60 F, and the excuse of the month is running out the winter hourglass.
Meantime? Don't worry be happy, as the market leans further and further into an uncertain future, beset by doctored stats so unrepresentative of what is happening at the joesixpac level, I leave it to you to determine whether the currency side of silver will suffer from low official inflation, but forge ahead on the reality we all face in the market, or whether there is sufficient manufacturing to garner interest in silver from the industrial side, given all that manufacturing malaise we saw third week of Feb.
GLTA, since L has so much moved front and center.
Feb 25 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec - 12.0% NA 13.7% -
Feb 25 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Dec - NA NA 0.1% -
Feb 25 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Feb - 81.0 NA 80.7 -
Feb 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/22 - NA NA -4.1% -
Feb 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jan - 400K NA 414K -
Feb 26 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/22 - NA NA 0.973M -
Feb 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/22 - 335K NA 336K -
Feb 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/15 - 2975K NA 2981K -
Feb 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jan - -0.2% NA -4.2% -4.3%
Feb 27 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Jan - -0.6% NA -1.3% -1.6%
Feb 27 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/22 - NA NA -250 bcf -
Feb 28 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q4 - 2.4% NA 3.2% -
Feb 28 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4 - 1.3% NA 1.3% -
Feb 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Feb - 55.0 NA 59.6 -
Feb 28 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Feb - 82.0 NA 81.2 -
Feb 28 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jan - -1.0% NA -8.7% -
Tame CPI/PPI and a positive takeaway from milking still lousy unemployment numbers led folks to second guess the duration of easy money policy and pundits trying to milk the couple of hawkish comments by a couple of Fed outlyers, and you have the makings of a hugely positive day on very little reason. Today existing home sales will be in the twaletto, but you won't see the market care very much, blaming it on the weather, and not the huge spike in mortgage rates endured since the announcement of tapering stimulatum excretatum. They'v e got weather as an excuse all the way up to the end of Feb and Feb reporting in early March--then the 50-50 degree weather will be gone.
In the meantime? For general markets, eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow just whistle in the dark.
Silver is off again half yesterday's gain pre market at 11PM Pacific Coastal Time, but general market futures are once again up 1/3rd % across the board. GLTA.