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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

mardermj 265 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 3:26 AM Member since: May 6, 2004
  • mardermj mardermj Feb 8, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    The bulls in Spain may be mean and stupid, but when they run, you don't get in their way, you go with the flow and watch your 6. See how that works?

  • If I remember correctly, the split adds no value, and the stock remains at PE 20 FORWARD LOOKING, so, with a low end target of $1220, it's a buy here still.

    If not comfy, you can always sell covered call options against your shares out of the money 15% higher, and still get a nice 10% annual cushion and a 25% rate of return annually.

    That's better than betting on some queezier part of the market.

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 7, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Somebody got the message, and that was yahoo, finally looking at the quality of the jobs, and low and behold many are construction in the middle of winter. Does that look like the Bureau of Statistics and Labor is throwing darts here? Is that consistent with bad weather, to hire construction workers now, or wait for the thaw? It sounds like the fraudsters who build the stats have figured out how to make the numbers look good, but are inconsistent in the way in which they throw the darts.

    Looks fishy enough to want to stay in MREITS which depend on the spread imho. Looks like folks are doing the same. I don't trust this rally at all in the general market.

  • 7 Feb the #$%$ jobs report was spun by CNBC and Yahoo pundits into something worthwhile, as if failing expectations by HALF was a good thing. The market engaged Friday in a self flagulatory short squeeze, and the dip in unemployment to 6.6% close to Fed target? A statistical phart caused by starved to death workers whose unemployment ran out. 10 Feb JOLTS job openings talks December, it is useless as a forward indicator, still carrying XMAS on its shoulders. So the only number worthwhile is claims claims claims, and we saw Friday the irrationally exuberant fed themselves a treat on employment numbers that sucked.

    How many shots to the nuts until markets wake up? My perception, it's like making love to a zombie, there's no resistance, she may have a nice rack, and all that flailing around a great substitute for passion, but when the stink hits you, and you get bit and infected, you may get the feeling something in infinitely wrong.

    I play it as it lays, but that day is fast approaching. Maybe if housing continues its price downward spiral, somebody notices--and cares??? GLWT

    Feb 11 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Dec - NA NA 4.001M -
    Feb 11 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Dec - NA NA 0.5% -
    Feb 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/08 - NA NA 0.4% -
    Feb 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/08 - NA NA 0.440M -
    Feb 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jan - NA NA $2.9B -
    Feb 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/08 - NA NA 331K -
    Feb 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/01 - NA NA 2964K -
    Feb 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA 0.2% -
    Feb 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jan - NA NA 0.7% -
    Feb 13 10:00 AM Business Inventories Dec - NA NA 0.4% -
    Feb 13 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/08 - NA NA -262 bcf -
    Feb 14 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jan - NA NA 0.3% -
    Feb 14 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jan - NA NA -0.1% -
    Feb 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jan - NA NA 0.3% -
    Feb 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jan - NA NA 79.2 -
    Feb 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - NA NA 81

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 7, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    I thought I was bad talking to myself.

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 7, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Pundits are spinning the113,000 instead of 189,000 are making love to a corpse. It's easy pickings, but the smell gets to you.

  • The economy is shrinking, but google just keeps trucking as safe haven. It's up pre market and hung through the report. Don't expect the Fed to have the intelligence to taper the taper--they're last year's news, and you can't fix stupid.

    My bets on goog, and it's off to $1500 all year next.

  • Don't expect the Fed to come to the rescue. Expect a poor showing by equities, and high yield will take off again.

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 7, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    MREITS remain safe haven. The Fed is not coming to the rescue.

  • ADP sucked this week, and Thursday all we got was exuberance over a "healing" economy. Well, unless the govt is printing jobs, the excuse of the week for weak job growth isn#$%$ export to the third world, or the fact that corporations have learned not to hire to keep the rest of the serfs in line--it's the weather. It's too cold in January, it will be too cold in February, to wet in March and April, too nice in the Spring, and too hot in the summer--you'll get excuse after excuse, as 200K hired would look dismal in 1965--let alone today with twice the population!

    Notice the run to high yield when there isn't any other place to go? And skedaddling over to equities when that shiny coin rears its head?

    Talk about a balanced portfolio, half in high yield, the other half in GOOG. Can you say shizo boys and girls.

    See you 0830 EST for the Non Farm Payroll. On the Scy Fy channel.

  • When markets cringe, high yield seems to be safe haven. When the market surges, the safe haven gets dumped, pennies off the top, and we're off to equity trading land.

    ADP stunk, and 70K is not a high hurdle, but if all that hiring was done in January, you can bet its just more Micky D Walmart $25K make work. All that money in corporate coffers isn't being poured into the jobs market.

    Can you hear me Yellen now?

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 7, 2014 2:38 AM Flag

    Will anyone check the "quality" of the job growth in Non Farm Payrolls? And, if inventory wasn't being built in January, can you expect much hiring for the same period, or more layoffs than jobs created? That's why I think no matter what ADP showed earlier this week, the Non Farm Payrolls will be better than the dismal 70K of winter, but if better than dismal is what propels a market, we are in bubble territory, now that the Fed has manifested the appearance, it is pulling the floor out from under equities by tapering bond buying. The market doesn't know which way to go, and there's an element that swings from stocks to bonds and back like a rabbit trapped between two snakes. I see it in high yield--jumps when the market swoons, unwinds when the equities recover like clockwork. Talk about a pair trade.

    I know I sound negative a lot, but there's real negative, and whether the numbers are stoked to create an illusion of prosperity to the delight of traders only, investors take the hindmost. The millstone of Obamacare hangs around full time job creation, and even the altruistic would have to create part time positions to be competitive for the few dollars left the dwindling middle class. You don't have trouble with the poor spending money, basic food, used clothing, and dismal shelter is all they can afford.

    Silver is off a half percent in the wee hours after two days of popping. 0830 EST we get to see the whether the market is into pop, or drop.

    What incentive was there to hire in January, if ISM hit the toilet? That's an awful lot of service jobs that have to make up the difference, and a sudden change in the five year penchant to hoard profits and not hire, at least not hire here in the US.

    Welcome to the royal crapshoot, and Ben's farewell means for the near term, no finger on the roulette wheel.


  • MREITS got to be safe haven 5 February, because the market sold off. TODAY, bogus unemployment stats are causing irrational exuberance, and the market is taking off like a scalded cat, and folks are dumping the high yield "safer" risk on investment.

    Welcome to lemming land and the land of the big lie. Go to the Bureau of Labor Stats and check and see, we've the LOWEST labor participation rate since 2008--folks are just NOT hiring. This "it's the weather" and foreshortened season, and "we're healing" is being met by a Fed tapering bond buying three years too soon.

    Retail was TEN PERCENT off this past XMAS season, they're laying off in droves, and the hiring is at the Micky D 25K a year level. Corporations are still hoarding cash, nobody is hiring to fill that gap.

    But that is the market, making hay on news that is already hay that has passed through the horse.

    That's why I sell covered calls against my shares.

    Next stop 30-32 cent distribution. Can you live with 15% a year plus whatever you can glean from covered call option writing, another 10%?

    Anything around $10.50 I add to my position.

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 6, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Analysts are reporting improved job picture anyway, and nobody checks their work, what they invest in, and whether their disclosures are self serving. It reminds me of the real estate Ponzi scheme everybody in the banking system participated in.

    This is a scary time to be long in anything.

  • mardermj mardermj Feb 6, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Well, jobless claims compared to last reporting period aren't down enough to warrant statistical inference, but the general market looks to open higher at the bell wiping out yesterday's losses on that hopey changey thingey. Fat chance, as productivity soars to 3.2% as terrified workers "serf" the working place at stagnant salaries. The pundits are talking to the cold weather as an excuse, anything but remind the market the Fed is no longer holding it up.

    The only way we have low interest rates going into the home retail buying season is, if foreigners decide to buy bonds because they're still reeling from all that bad paper they bought a decade ago, and if the scads of homes still on bank books like a "hidden file" are worthy of sale--there are still scads there, and in private investor hands, whose "flip" looks like a renter in perpetuity.

    Tomorrow we see what figures are coked up for NonFarm Payrolls, I think we'll get another slight uptick with a revised downtick for last reporting period.

    Silver continues to be safe haven. It used to be reflected in SLW prices at 2X, now barely 1X if at all. The separation between the two has been going on for at least six months.


  • mardermj mardermj Feb 6, 2014 2:51 AM Flag

    By the way, Ford and GM upside surprise didn't-- and that gives me even more pause underscoring the bubblicious nature of the market. The general market cat is still dead and bouncing overnight, even furriner markets aren't following the US down overnight, the couple nights a year they don't play follow the leader--but that is the setup for the next round of made up numbers NonFarm payrolls. 160K hired after firing all those part timers for the XMAS rush--and how about the consumer credit drop expected in the wake of the huge 10% decrements in retail buying this past Dec? Thursday in anticipation, and Friday coming, it looks to me like dooby dooby down, oh down, hey down, dooby dooby down...

    Wah wah wah wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, uhhhhhhhhhhhh.

  • Reply to


    by sharpie3444 Feb 5, 2014 9:08 AM
    mardermj mardermj Feb 6, 2014 2:28 AM Flag

    Up and down with floors and ceilings? It's called RANGE BOUND in my lingo.

  • Reply to

    expect a big rally in the markets next week.

    by eranbob Jan 31, 2014 12:04 PM
    mardermj mardermj Feb 6, 2014 2:25 AM Flag

    I'll just lick my wounds and enjoy that consolation prize of being dead right.

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