The dumbest thing of all, is folks who DIDN'T READ THE 3RD QTR REPORT WHERE squeezed margins and market share were all predicted by anyone who could read at the fourth grade level.
See how that works?
$24.50 is the gap to be filled, and filled it appears it was. Certainly, margins are compressed by 2/3rds also, and you'll see marginal stores being closed, and sales all year every excuse that can be made. AMZN starts having to pay tax this year, if they pick up that tab in lowered prices, they're in the red. The playing field is leveling, and I am buying on dips. All they have to do, is maintain the dividend and the bounce to $33 is just a few months away.
Week to week mortgage apps tell a limited story, the big story is how much apps are down versus May '13 when tapering was just a barrage of ill timed verbiage. Sure, mortgage applications increased 4.7 percent from last week earlier weekly (mortgage apps surveyed for the week ending January 17, 2014?. And refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week. But the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. AND average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.57 percent, LOWEST level since November 2013, from 4.66 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV. BUTm the refinance index however up a little over the last two weeks, is DOWN down 67% from early May just before Bernookie played the tapering card.
With the mortgage rate increases, refinance activity will be significantly lower in 2014 than in 2013.
AND 4-week average of the purchase index is now down about 9% from a year ago.
And the report itself? Indicates more drag on the real estate recovery. For those wistfully looking at those October prices, they've chewed 5% off the top of the "peak" recovery, dragging reflation back into deflation that nobody's mentioned except yours truly.
There's always that five year pent up "demand" living in Mom's basement, late to the unemployment line, or Micky D's for one of those high paying jobs the administration "created".
That's why it remains a fundamentally driven market, for the first time in five years. With a pin stuck in the balloon of market valuations, being driven harder one 10 million bond buying tapering at a time.
For that next chair to be withdrawn from the game of musical chairs, watch for it 28-9 Jan FOMC meeting next.
All I got for my trouble is this lousy T shirt that says mortgage index, good luck with anything to do with housing as rates now are 4.5%, and crippling that recovery. Yes it's historically low, but it's also historically lowball to call 4.2M new "workers" with Micky D jobs a "recovery". Those guys are underwater buying homes at 3.5%, this doesn't bode well for all that "pent up demand" more busy buying cars than homes for the immediate future, and coming buying season. Maybe the NE corridor under a blanket of snow won't have to think about it very much today, Dow futures are off a smidge but, the S and P and Nasdreck are chugging along with small gains. Wish I could say that for silver, we're headed for the next visitation to the trough of the $19-$23 range. Are you riding that roller coaster, or hoping after five years deflation won't continue, at least, officially, no matter what the price increases that exist here in the real economy?
At least cars don't wiggle "appreciation" at you, the scam of the last 50 years, and after forty years of struggling with emissions and performance, we're getting 300HP from 2.0 liters turbocharged getting 30 MPG. Pretty soon the next bleat out of the Muddle East we can confidently resolve under a mushroom cloud, and oil wise, not feel it at all, while we zoom zoom into the sunset in our new cars. Since we're the largest oil exporter these days, it's good to be king and we'd be smart to follow that road, and not conduct ourselves by fighting fist fights in Flablungastan for decades for no reason.
Good luck with all, of that.
I love it when I read articles telling me the $14 shares that are now $7.60 might be weaker over the next year, when they've already expressed that weakness in the form of a 50% haircut over the last four months! Where were they when the fire got started? I'll tell you where, nowhere.
NOW they think MREITS might be vulnerable to interest rate hikes and lowered spreads? Chances are, it is early to the party for the lowest point we'll see CYS and others, but most of the blood is already on the street. Next dividend will probably be around 30 pennies, but, that is already cranked into share prices.
What am I doing? Buying on weakness, selling covered call options just out of the money, collecting the dividend. That's how that works for me. 15-20 pennies a quarter, 30 pennies dividend a quarter, that's $1.80 to $2.00 a year on a $7.83 cent investment. We'll see if I am wasting my time here or not.
Notice the dings are leveled at shares which have already plummeted by 50%. If you're in at under $8, you're on safe ground, and what he is really saying, is buy on weakness over the next year because the shares will stabilize in a year. I hold nearly 40,000 shares at $7.83--I keep selling calls every three months for about 20 cents, and collect the dividend over the next year, I should be about to sustain a $2 hit while trading other shares for short term gain. This is not going to be easy, but it's doable.
The Fed is about three years premature in tapering bond buying, which is contrary to "we're not raising interest rates" touted by Bernookie. Talk is cheap, the horror story here for the entire market is the Fed actually has convinced itself that 4.2M Micky D part timers is a jobs recovery.
Real estate limps into summer at higher mortgage rates keyed on the ten year note? Watch them taper the taper after stabbing themselves in the eye again. The Fed NEVER calls the turns right, Bernookie "missed" the real estate debacle he saw unfolding for a year, before it crippled the banksters.
See how that works?
Time to start accumulating more shares.
and probably hold till fourth quarter reannouncement in detail in about a month. There's a big gap at this level, the last one, and $24.50 is right in the middle of the high and low--it's a place to start.
The only surprises left will be not being able to pay the dividend, that would be a gut shot. I think they'll maintain the dividend at whatever cost, they are good for it.
I think we're looking at 30 - 32 cents this quarter. I think we bump up to $8+ by reporting time in a month. At $7.60 we're dead in the middle of the recent $7.35 to $7.85 range. I think we add a couple pennies every other day or so for the next 45 days.
Keep talking about walking into a showroom, then buying via Internet, and you've hit the Macy's model. They were early to that business model, and this XMAS past, came through with flying colors. BBY was late to that paradigm, let's give it a couple quarters to take root. Buy on internet, pick up in store. Hell, you can do that from your smart phone while IN the store.
And THERE is the turnaround story of 2014, however late to the party.
If you made 10K a year in 1973, you'd better be making $100,000 a year to buy the same items, the $3500 car is $35000, the $44,000 house $440,000. An nobody noticed, not even those who lived through that era.
Someday you'll be right about hyperinflated currencies, but that day isn't today, because nobody believes 40 years is a puff on the timeline, just one working lifetime.
...not much general economic action in the US, but Asia took off, general futures seem to be springboarding off Chinese growth that is approaching 8%, a number we in the US would kill for.--and did--it was called WWII, the last one we won, not counting the 70 year mess called Korea.
Silver is off 2/3% in the wee hours, I maintain a $20-$23 trading range for those who like that game. It's been a long while since I touted selling covered calls against SLW, I haven't changed my feeling there, you can always ying and yang using those call options to gather profit if your guess at today's buy isn't timely. Certainly, by now, the opportunity to see SLW burst upward has slipped your consciousness by now.
Inflation abounds, it's just not being reported. It's about 6% a year in the retail market, smaller sized packaging deceives, but those $16.95 Costco shirts are approaching $20 in the past three years, do the math.
And economics is a math test. Submitting essays for failing numbers for "extra credit" is financial analysts and Congress' way to keep the public fooled.
And yes, in spite of the "Who's" admonition, they get fooled every time.
The reasons people aren't afraid.
They're buying retail Chinese junk again, but using cash, so as to be frugal, and not become a "Target" for credit card fraud.
They're buying cars instead of houses. Might as well get something you know declines.
They believe the tripe about employment, including thinking Micky D part time jobs are "well paying". You have to come from a Chicago slum to believe that. It's positively Presidential.
They think printing trillions to give banksters more profit rights the real economy slowly. Why making banksters richer while the rest of the serfs slave away at Micky D's harbors success is baffling.
Even the Fed believes its own lies. Mortgage loans however, are dissipating, banksters are letting refi divisions hit the unemployment lines, home sales after a flurry of looky loos late to the refi party last summer went away, and home prices continue to shrink, now $5,000 per $100,000 off the top, since May. But don't worry, nobody's "looking".
See how that works?
I like COSTCO and BJ's, but customer service and knowledge is zilch, and I buying electronics alongside the 50 cans of Beefaroni, c'mon, you have to have some semblance of expertise here kids, not somebody to tell you where they hid the Rogaine this week.
I can't throw $2500 at dead air on the internet because I saved $100 and take the chance I am going to be arguing with some anonymous fleabag, it's just too risky for decent sized purchases. Frequently the internet has last year's model, or even last four months model, for sale. It's like comparing apples and gonads.
Take a bite out of the wrong one and see how far it gets you.