it's the 28th of January and if you ain't Apple you ain't #$%$. We started this morning two thirds of a percent popped in the Russell 2000. By closing date we were down almost 2 percent. What a disaster!
Luckily I had sold some calls against my IWM Holdings. I was able to buy them back for pennies. That took one third of the sting out of the drop. If anybody thinks the Fed chairman is going to raise overnight rates in the next four years based upon this continual recontracting series of sales GDP etc etc you have not taken enough xanax.
Go find Jennifer Lawrence's bottle and ask her if she'll share.
Deflation, dismal XMAS, Draghi dragging the EURO down, the dollar strengthens, it's no time to make things worse by dragging defeat from the jaws, however ethereal and unreal, of defeat from the jaws of victory. We certainly don't need US bonds to be more attractive, Europe is finally "catching on" to the joys of printing money till banks bleed, and has yet to find out all those bonds lower irates for a community that doesn't rely on real estate reflation, but needs genuine economic reform. Well there's no accounting for reality, and speaking of unreal, here's the FOMC, which will if wise, not do a damn thing. Haven't they done enough damage? Maybe not. The week is young.
Jan 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Dec - NA NA -0.9% -0.7%
Jan 27 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Dec - NA NA -0.7% -0.4%
Jan 27 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov - NA NA 4.5% -
Jan 27 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jan - NA NA 92.6 -
Jan 27 10:00 AM New Home Sales Dec - NA NA 438K -
Jan 28 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/24 - NA NA NA -
Jan 28 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/24 - NA NA 10.071M -
Jan 28 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jan - NA NA 0.25% -
Jan 29 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/24 - NA NA 307K -
Jan 29 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/17 - NA NA 2443K -
Jan 29 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Dec - NA NA 0.8% -
Jan 29 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/24 - NA NA -216 bcf -
Jan 30 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q4 - NA NA 5.0% -
Jan 30 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 - NA NA 1.4% -
Jan 30 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q4 - NA NA 0.7% -
Jan 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jan - NA NA 58.3 -
Jan 30 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jan - NA NA 98.2 -
Saudi Shiek Falaffel kicks the bucket, and oil surges two bucks, as if every member of that family hell bent to break the back of shale oil frackers and local US production is going to change their tune. Time to short oil again.
And the EURO falls as Count Draghi-ula sucks its life out-- by buying bonds (???) to lower irates in Europe, although that has nothing to do with Socialist programs of three months annual vacation, womb to tomb medical care with all facilities owned by govt, and a "gimme" "me first" populace with too many benefits chasing too few EUROS. So they're going to do the populace a favor by chasing them out of bonds and into real estate and the stock market? I lived there for decades, that may tickle the edges, but those guys ain't Americans. Little more than headline effect. And WE rallied on the headline news?
The rally poured about $10K into my pockets, because you don't stand in the way of a stampede, you go with the flow.
Existing home sales leads the charge this morning, I am just hoping to consolidate my gains from yesterday meteoric rise with a flat day. Silver is retreating some. You'd think yesterday's EURO based nonsense would have given it a four percent day. That was last week.
No thanks. I voted we turn the entire area into glass a long time ago. The climate there is therefore definitely too hot for me.
That would have been soars, instead of sores, but when central banks intervene, leprosy RULES the value of currency made of paper. It isn't even papier mache, at least that hardens into something malleable, not malevolent. More than ever, it's a MINER issue, as they crank up the real stuff.
And so the market took off like a scalded cat. Will it last? Sure it will, until every home has an extra $100,000 tacked onto its "value", and every loaf of bread $30, every cup of coffee $50.
We're so LUCKY to live in the land of currency manipulation.
New housing roars, and I cringe, because the newer homes will be sold in an environment where 15% of existing home CAN'T sell, because existing owners are still underwater, and will be until another seven years of housing payments and stagnant reflation allow it. But for now, that overhang is as distant a memory as the derivatives still off banking's books, and festering in speculator's asset boxes.
I am curious why the S and P roared, but the Russell soured late in the day. Jan 23'rd covered call options at $117 and $116.50 were just pennies apart, I reeled in the $116.50 shorts and sold the $117.00's for a dime less, a counterintuitive move in a sell off day. Are folks rushing to Europe?
But everybody is waiting for Count Drahgie-ula to suck the blood out of the EURO and announce first time QE. It's a bit early in Europe, about breakfast time, so time will tell. It doesn't matter whether bonds are bought in droves -- the house of Europe wasn't built on real estate, but the lack of safe haven "interest" should have Europeans entering the market to reflate it further.
Will money dash from our market to Europe? EFA was up smartly yesterday, but the BRIC related ETF and even China just about added 10%.
WT foo is going on? It's midnight Pacific Time. Do you know where your future investments are?
The general market will continue to be a daytrader's delight, everyone waiting Europe's loosening money with its own brand of manipulation. That means the dollar will get stronger, and that vacation in Europe less daunting, unless of course, you go to Switzerland, and why should you?
Gold and silver are strengthening from two factors--the massive printing of paper money, and Europe's joining that debacle tomorrow Thursday, and the China meltdown, overdue about 33%. In the meantime, kick back and enjoy the specie profits while we await the next silly news about housing starts, faltering, and really, with 15% still underwater in their homes, why shouldn't it? All that pent up inventory.
Flat CPI/PPI, wage increases zilch, cost of money an anchor weighing down Fed expenditures overburdened as is, corporation profits shrinking, #$%$ XMAS season-- the only way Madam Chairman Yellen Rate Popper the 1st gets a REASON to pop irates is if she is transferred to an alternate universe where banks didn't bankrupt us under the #$%$-ton administration--we're out of the woods from a bankruptcy situation because all those derivatives are still off the books.....
However, comedian Ron White argues you can't fix stupid, and there are evidences that members of the Fed actually are beginning to believe their own #$%$ stats about the "recovery", hence the pop in gold and silver, from the crowd that knows differently.
As to the market? I expect a choppy sideways general market for the rest of the year, with anticipatory pop for the upcoming Presidential election a forever away.
It's one AM Pacific Time, do you know where the general market is? Up a half percent, down a half percent, all over the place, as the world waits for Thursday's stimulatum excretatum from the Urinepeeon central banksters and ignores China markets crashed mightily, with real estate price drops signalling the end of China as a juggernaut. Back to Europe--the pop expected in the requirements for Swiss to buy EURO bonds as a result, left the Swiss thinking doomsday, and sent them packing and heading off to no peg against the EURO land. US suddenly looks more and more safe haven which lives mostly off its internal economic pulse. Rude awakenings beckon. But not yet, not yet.
The Swiss secession from the from the world of paper currency is the equivalent of an IED, it's bankster terrorism, but no worse than the Nixon administration's abandonment of silver and gold, and adaptation of paper dollars in '71. I don't remember that little switcheroo being telegraphed very well either.
Look at how "great" the "growth has been in the US since Nixon's dirty deed. Salaries have gone "up" nearly SIX times!!! While prices have gone up nearly TEN times, so adroitly, it now takes two incomes to pay for items one family breadwinner could afford back then!!!! The workers would protest, if they understood the "monetary system" which is, pay for debt with steadily declining worthless paper scrip, so you don't have to tax (pay for) anything with tax revenue. Remember, was it Jefferson who said, the end of the economic system was when a "democracy" figured it could vote for debt payment with a printing press dollar?
Workers don't help graduating college with degrees in bulltschit, exercising their "academic freedom" to remain untrained and virtually unemployable. Corporations don't help by shipping jobs overseas to those who are skilled, at cut rate prices and wholesale levels, forgetting US workers are also--customers.
Oils dead cat bounce also seems over. GLTA
MLK Day means kick back. Anyone long one week options Friday is nuts as half value will disappear by lunch Tuesday.
The big booga boo is the housing price deflation, which is worth about a half percent, as I view Zillow. Margins for homebuilders were represented last week by KBH which sold off bunches. Still, some profit is better than none, lower prices mean stagnant waged joesixpac's might have a shot at a mortgage, especially with the ten year yield under pressure as the world chases to safe haven. The Swiss decoupling from the EURO has to amount to bank terrorism at its worst, no transparency, not only no warning, the exact opposite position was taken DAYS before. Four percent sell off was mitigated last week only by Friday's DCB, and the cat bounced merrily. This week with housing prices deflating, more folks can't sell, opening the door to more inventory, which of course, makes housing even worse in future. Silver and gold are triumphant, as madness helps specie, witness the blast forward late last week including Friday the 16th.
GLTA. We're going to need it.
Jan 20 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jan - NA NA 57 -
Jan 21 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/17 - NA NA NA -
Jan 21 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec - NA NA 1028K -
Jan 21 8:30 AM Building Permits Dec - NA NA 1035K -
Jan 22 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/17 - NA NA 316K -
Jan 22 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/10 - NA NA 2424K -
Jan 22 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Nov - NA NA 0.6% -
Jan 22 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/17 - NA NA -236 bcf -
Jan 22 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 01/17 - NA NA 5.389M -
Jan 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Dec - NA NA 4.93K -
Jan 23 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Dec - NA NA 0.6% -
Well the right answers don't always lead to the right conclusions either, there is still some rationale in the marketplace. Right about cringing CPI, right about the unemployment embracing all those departing XMAS hires, but wrong that it would lead to a silver selloff--for once the winners did not get sold with the losers, and silver claimed a plus 3/4%. This evening AH silver continues to ascend, and the Russell continues to get Rustled another 3/4%. The general market is being busted to corporal punishment, for those who are getting bitsch slapped by oil, and now the Swiss who've made Swiss cheese of the euro--it's getting ugly out there.
But not for silver and gold so far. Sometimes, as Chief Dan George of "Little Big Man" fame said, the magic works.
And sometimes it doesn't.
You may have wasted opportunity time, but you broke even, and did very well. I wish I could say that on all my investment.s
Being dead right doesn't always make you money. It's claim this morning, and maybe a bit too early to reflect the abysmal turn dumping all those XMAS part timers, but at least it's fuel for continued low irates. Somebody has to light a match for that fuel to burn however, and I am afraid the Fed after so many good calls, is due for a bad one. This morning, after the predictable (to me, not to anyone else) debacle of XMAS sales, we get to watch the claims numbers jump and silver continue to erase the 2% pop of just a few days ago.
The dead cat is bouncing in the market though. At least at 1PM Pacific Time. See you in five hours when the world changes again.
Retail sales is the screamer PM, as XMAS needs to make up for Thanksgiving and Grey Friday. That's like Black Friday only lighter. Crude inventories should come up only a little lighter given Dec was warmer and January for the record should also be light, what with higher temps and no white precip east coast to date.
No use getting around a dismal XMAS--the Fed is going to have fits justifying rate pops in the middle of real estate season this summer, but why would they make sense? I don't see rates popping until we get definitive wage traction for, as we all know, we give trillions to the banks, but the least whiff of wage traction by joesixpac, we have to suck more money out of him for credit card debt and housing, he's too stupid to bargain hunt. Futures are down but off their bottom wee hours, it doesn't mean much till retail reports--but silver is crashing near three percent on the news that, uh, on the uh, ummmm, yeah, you figure it out. I cannot.
In the S&P an outside reversal started when someone sold a spitload of call options to mitigate risk--I wonder if they bought puts with some of the premium, but at 1100 EST market tanked and Cashin is convinced downside is the continued trend, as levels were breached. AA was always a farce, but KBH thin home building margins tanked that stock mucho dinero.
Still think Yellen has room to pop irates? Bought back a bunch of calls and sold more lower on my IWM. I've a funny feeling they'll expire worthless at end of week. Where's the bottom for the market?
We haven't had an outside reversal in a billion years. This will not be pretty in the short run.