HGG LOST 15% reporting Thursday, BBY bad news is "in". AMZN missed and tanked too, it remains WAY overpriced while BBY is undervalued. Statement next CC senor will include aggresive e-commercebid which is why FIVE analysts have a minimum target of $31 .
Selloff is WAY overdone. I'm standing pat.
30 Jan claims gets bogus numbers, but general market is looking for excuses to go down. Dollar weakness near term should bouy everything, but the market believes bond buying built a floor under the market.
Business will have to get off its duff and start hiring in the blind more than Micky D part timers and inventories are already overbuilt.
This is one stress test that the market isn't too big to fail, and if you dont smell selloff in the wind, look at the Jan indicator. That voodoo is 3% lighter.
Silver is down nearly 2% this AM, with claims up next. Can you say cover your six boys and girls with covered call sales against your shares?
Bernookie pounds another ten billion "penny" nail into the market balloon and claims is next up to hammer it home. Minus 15- 20 % general market to come.
Best Buy has it's own issues, but how much money Apple makes doesn't affect BBY except by pointing out general weakness in the retail sector.
Bernookie, who missed the turn of the real estate bubble, is cheerfully missing the turn of his own making with respect to the "recovery".
Here we go again. Got cash?
The Fed is three years early tapering bond buying, which drives up interest rates for mortgages, and credit card rates to follow. Tapering pulls the dirty rag out of the economic sucking chest wound, leave it in , the patient dies of an infection called inflation, pull it out, the patient bleeds out.
Stop watching charts and paint dry and look at fundamentals--the Fed is leaving bond buying behind, the furriners trash can't be bought at as high a rate, Chinese are already retreating, the cost of business is going up as borrowing rates increase, and margins are already squeezed, from BEST BUY to AAPL, evidence the latter's ten percent selloff last night.
The Fed is driving a stake into the stock balloon with as much failure to see how badly timed, as they called the real estate debacle in 2006--they didn't then, they aren't now.
Fed has put a pin in the market balloon by tapering. People perceive easy money was the only thing holding markets up, and with reporting for last quarter dismal, the prospect of paying MORE for money to expand crimps the bottom line further, moving us for a dismal 2014. With markets down faster than up, the pop overnight in Dow and S and P is fragile, and another 1% off the top is in store for the Russell.
.. and the vote is in, the huge uptick in new homes last year, best since 2008 is ruled great news for the past, but the Dec figures, off ten percent, harbor a future burdened by higher mortgage rates. So the markets tumble on what appears to be, the rollover I touted.
Worse, appl proves to be less than spectacular, and the market punishes accordingly, off a whopping ten percent after hours. While the Dow and S and P futures indicate a bounce wee hours, the NASDRECK is looking for another 1% selloff, even before we get the Case Shiller "it ain't worth that much anymore" housing price report pre market, and confidence levels for the 10AM EST time. I wonder how all those Kmart, Walmart, Micky D part timers are feeling these days? Pretty flush at $25K a year? Or was it hard to hear them complain on the food stamp line? Does $25K include the costs for Obunglecare?
Wednesday the Fed will cheerfully announce another spike in the market balloon it so painstakingly built up over five years.
New Home sales starts the ball rolling in the uh, oh, category followed by tomorrow's "at what price" response. How many looky loos are getting off the fence?
This morning, welcome to the dead cat bounce in the markets. Touting bond tapering as "known" is like making yourself feel good because you have a final diagnosis of terminal cancer. Happy yet?
Silver is the canary in the mine. Yellow is turning blue this morning, as I see red there.
It's a rainbow coalition the administration is orchestrating.
New home sales at the 4.5% mortgage rate in December, a soft month, we get to see how the govt fudges that number as the only indicator today. Higher interest rates means less folks can afford homes unless prices fall for those homes, the Fed is pulling out of the bond buying market and crashing the entire world. Will the world with whatever it has left pull their money out of the market and invest in US bonds? Some of that will occur, but not enough imho to prevent a 15-20% washout of a market that hasn't really healed from the bubble of 2007 MENTALLY. Homes are still retreating in value from their "peak" recovery to August 2004 prices to make up the difference between 3.25 % rates and today's 4.5%.
Are there enough looky loos coming off the shelf to buy homes this December to give the market a pop today? And if so, is the Fed's next tapering decision a couple days from now still hanging like a sword over the heads of longs in anything?
Long buyers are retreating to MREITS like CYS and NLY in droves last week. They'd rather take chances on a sector already beaten down 50% and still paying 10-15% interest. I'm buying on dips and already own a bunch.
For the record? Other places, even those with good corporate reports, are retreating. GLTA.
Buy a long term two year leap deep in the money with little premium, and SELL earlier way out of the money covered calls and squeeze it both ways.
Wasn't that fun, watching the entire world crumble because the US Fed hasn't the "confidence" to "invest" in the US bond market, why should anyone hold equities?
That was the first 3% off the top, on the way to the next 17-22%. Some #$%$ figures reflecting the Dec blahs and dull predictions, and then FEDs going to throw more gasoline on that fire 29 January with more tapering.
I see silver and slw down. They're stocks just like the rest of them, and this looks like the market is turning over looking for an excuse to sell off.
Look at the market, it crashed today except safe havens and MREITS which have the adventurous clamoring for 15% yield (CYS for one, NLY for another), as opposed to gold and silver. The Chinese cooling is the latest excuse but the bottom line is the Fed is trying to crash the exuberance in the stock market, lest anyone escape with profits from 2013.
The FOMC meets with Bernookie in charge for the last time on the 28th and 29th with no changes, low interest rates touted, but another 10B lopped off the bond buying scenario over the next year or so. They're premature to taper, because the economy has only marginally improved in the last year, joblessness and underemployed remains stubbornly over 14%, and a host of folks have fallen off the roles having given up.
If inflation were a target, then the Fed has failed miserably to destroy the value of the dollar by 2% every year. To me that is a good thing, but to the rank an file economists it appears that there are forces building up for hyperinflation that haven't reared their heads at all in the last five years.
If you think about a 4% inflation arena, and slow or no growth, where are you going to go to replicate the kind of market we had last year--30%, about to roll over and take back HALF in the REAL economy, not the boiled statistical mishmash that the government mistakenly believes its statistics indicate.
MREITS are paying, and are attractive for just that reason, which is why I believe the uptick in interest during this selloff. Folks are collecting high paying yields like there is no tomorrow, for if the Fed continues to believe, three years earlier than required, that real estate is rebounding when it's DOWN in prices 6% since October, and that higher mortgage rates won't put a damper on a fragile economy, they're in for a rude shock after they put this tapering pin into the balloon that is the market.
High yield like MREITS are going to have their challenges, but they were already beaten down fifty percent from last year.
I think it's their time.
See you at $8.25 next week (yawn)