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Lennar Corp. Message Board

mardermj 142 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: May 6, 2004
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  • Fed chairmen usually use Jackson Hole meetings to jawbone future plans. It doesn't look good for inflation. I won't look any better after said chair besides jawbones interest rates jumps coming six months down the road This is not the time to be in hedge positions against inflation that government statistics refuse to recognize The whole market is acting like a skittish turtle.

    Cash is king

    That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it

  • Well, welcome to Walgreens decision to keep corporation in the US--and the haircut to end all haircuts.

    Instead of threats and rhetoric, pols should do their jobs and change the law so that it is better to do business in the US economically.

  • Spectacular runup followed by contraction after terrible quarter? Who's going out to eat these days? If the stores are packed, are they giving the food away for free?

  • Best week for shorties since the 2008 crash, starting Tuesday! Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s conference Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

    The Fed's and Bank of England's minutes, add to world wide housing doldrums from US to China to UK just adds fuel to the July 29-30 minutes from August. U.S. sales of previously owned homes eight-month high in July as the last of the looky loo's get off the shelf and buy buy buy, but a report in the coming week may show holes in that bubble. The only saving grace--U.S. consumer-price index probably rose at the slowest pace in five months, because Micky D part time jobs don't support a boom.

    MONDAY, AUG. 18 Merkel visits Latvia to fan flames on the Ukraine crisis with Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma. Latvia borders Russia, joined the euro area this year. (09:30 EDT).
    -ECONOMY: Chile GDP (CLGDPNA%) (second quarter), China home prices (July), (crash) Hong Kong unemployment (July) (boom), Thailand GDP (second quarter) (who cares?), U.K. house prices (Aug.) (CRASH!), euro-area trade balance (June), Bloomberg monthly euro-area survey of economists, (blithering idiots all) Ukraine industrial output (July) (it's the war zone, stupid). TUESDAY, AUG. 19 -U.S. housing starts slump to a ten month low 08:30 in Washington. U.S. CPI July will slow-gas prices eased.
    WEDNESDAY, AUG. 20-Fed July 29-30 meeting minutes as Yellen weighs raising interest rates for the first time since 2006 as unemployment doesn't reflect quality of jobs, the Fed's next mistake brewing away.THURSDAY, AUG. 21 -Fed Jackson Hole, Wyoming, its annual symposium, this year titled “Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics.” in a balloon economy. That's where we repeat the Emperor's New Clothes to an astounded world, mistaking jobless claim improvement for folks dying of starvation.FRIDAY the Urinepeeons take stage to announce easing, they'e playing catchup.

    Having fun yet?

  • mardermj mardermj Aug 24, 2014 3:39 AM Flag

    If it's posing as a $25 stock, it's giving a pretty good performance. Comparing SLW a royalty stock with a miner is like comparing apples and gonads. They're both round, but be careful which one you take a bite out of .

  • Folks selling homes best do it summer and fall, if rates are prematurely popped by our confused and self delusional Fed mid 2015. When popped, the market will not look at 1/4%, it will discount the entire 2-2.5% pop thereafter--I look for a fifteen to twenty percent correction in equities in about 30 days thereafter rate pop #1. Hurt most? Small business, precious metals, service the national debt, credit card holders. I expect the jitters late XMAS to 2nd QTR 2015, and the market to flatline in anticipation. 1/4 a month would be catastrophic. 1/4 a quarter would be better. This week? New home sales fill in the blank left by existing home owners still under water who'd like to sell but can't, which Fed reads as "recovery". House prices flatline, claims will shrink slightly-more part timers get work.

    Will Yellen be forgotten? Stay tuned. It's bubblicious.

    Aug 25 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jul - 415K 427K 406K -
    Aug 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jul - 12.6% 7.0% 1.7% 0.7%
    Aug 26 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Jul - 1.0% 0.6% 1.9% 0.8%
    Aug 26 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jun - 8.5% 8.3% 9.3% -
    Aug 26 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jun - NA NA 0.4% -
    Aug 26 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Aug - 88.0 88.3 90.9 -
    Aug 27 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 08/23 - NA NA 1.4% -
    Aug 27 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 08/23 - NA NA -4.474M -
    Aug 28 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/23 - 315K 302K 298K -
    Aug 28 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/16 - 2525K 2520K 2500K -
    Aug 28 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q2 - 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% -
    Aug 28 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q2 - 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% -
    Aug 28 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jul - 0.5% 0.5% -1.1% -
    Aug 28 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 08/23 - NA NA 88 bcf -
    Aug 29 8:30 AM Personal Income Jul - 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% -
    Aug 29 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jul - 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% -
    Aug 29 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Jul - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
    Aug 29 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Aug - 53.0 54.8 52.6 -
    Aug 29 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Aug - 80.0 80

  • mardermj mardermj Aug 24, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    Because as the market flounders it will pick up mo, as we pass through everybody's pet indicator, like a ten day 50 day 100 day moving average--and that takes a bit of time to get to a head of steam.

  • Pop a quarter a quarter
    starting May '15
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    it won't be so mean
    Watch effects on the middle
    their salaries are lean
    No more than quarter a quarter
    so we don't bust a spleen

    Pop a quarter a quarter
    so it takes a long while
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    till 2%'s for rank and file
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    Maybe won't bring a smile
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    Pull seniors back from exile

    Pop a quarter a quarter
    Be prepared for a cringe
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    From the stock market's binge
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    And you will take a chance
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    watching wealthy folks dance

    So pop a quarter a quarter
    Fed must turn on a dime
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    be safe--take you some time
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    to assess and refine
    Pop a quarter a quarter
    and it might... turn........ out............. fine.

  • mardermj mardermj Aug 26, 2014 5:27 AM Flag

    Low and behold, new family homes are not keeping up with supply being driven by homebuilders totally misunderstanding that the rush to new home buying this year, hasn't the higher salaried folks left to sustain it next year, when the Fed starts raising interest rates. The glut of supply, meets the indigent in the middle, and we wind up like China, ghost homes across Amurrica.

    Is the Fed dumb enough to think they can raise overnight rates? Check out my ode to what Robin Williams might have done with that on Seth Meyers couch if he'd been asked. He'd have rapped stream of consciousness what took me five minutes to write down. Pop a quarter a quarter.....

  • Reply to


    by arizona_guy77 Aug 25, 2014 6:10 PM
    mardermj mardermj Aug 26, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    The "system" is abetted by fairy tale paper gold in the form of ETF and Mutual bull and bear "tracking" equities--they hold nothing but dead air, tho people think they are owning gold-- and options--those drain off the demand for "real" assets. It's the only thing holding up paper money, and those vehicles are not going away/.

  • Hand guns won't help us with ISIS, and the poor are cattle not ready for revolution, there's guns awash out there. Time to move along.

  • takes the drama out of dividend drops somewhat considering last month's income was 13 pennies and they're gonna five pennies a month.

    also stabilizes stock price. But when did they start?

  • Reply to

    when did ARR dividends go monthly?

    by mardermj Aug 30, 2014 6:54 AM
    mardermj mardermj Aug 30, 2014 9:53 PM Flag

    then they have enough fuel to get all the way to the scene of the crash.

  • They're manufacturing and constructing away, but it's big ticket items. The little guy? He's pinching pennies, working part time, and his association with little stuff is intimately involved with returning Chinese junk that doesn't work to Home Depot. Mortgage rates eased last week, in the wake of all that overseas demand for safe haven bonds, so this is the alleged last gasp for lower home mortgage rates, since Yellen the confused is dangerously closer to believing those hokey unemployment stats--popping rates around March 2015. Sept the worst month for stocks? Nah, skies the limit, as common sense and valuation leaves the building. Me? I follow the herd, no use being trampled. Silver and gold? Ruts-ville. TTFN

    Sep 2 10:00 AM ISM Index Aug 59.0 56.4 57.0 57.1 -
    Sep 2 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jul 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% -0.9% -1.8%
    Sep 3 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 08/30 - NA NA 2.8% -
    Sep 3 10:00 AM Factory Orders Jul - 12.0% 11.0% 1.1% -
    Sep 3 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Sep - - - - -
    Sep 3 2:00 PM Auto Sales Aug - NA NA 5.8M -
    Sep 3 2:00 PM Truck Sales Aug - NA NA 7.4M -
    Sep 4 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Aug - NA NA 24.4% -
    Sep 4 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Aug - 230K 220K 218K -
    Sep 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/30 - 310K 300K 298K -
    Sep 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/23 - 2525K 2525K 2527K -
    Sep 4 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jul - -$40.5B -$42.0B -$41.5B -
    Sep 4 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q2 - 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% -
    Sep 4 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q2 - 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% -
    Sep 4 10:00 AM ISM Services Aug - 58.0 57.8 58.7 -
    Sep 4 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 08/30 - NA NA 75 bcf -
    Sep 4 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 08/30 - NA NA -2.070M -
    Sep 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Aug - 235K 223K 209K -
    Sep 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug - 225K 200K 198K -
    Sep 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Aug - 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% -
    Sep 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Aug - 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -
    Sep 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek Aug - 34.5 34.5 34.5 -

  • mardermj mardermj Sep 5, 2014 1:20 AM Flag

    Your best bet is selling covered calls monthly against this stock and turning it into a dividend like play.

  • mardermj mardermj Sep 5, 2014 1:21 AM Flag

    Market up in the morning and sells off in the afternoon, not fun. Folks don't like good news, it zpooks the Fed into raising rates next year, when they shouldn't be touched until 2022.

  • mardermj mardermj Sep 5, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    but there's always some #$%$ that can't wake up after two years and smell the coffee.

  • Down wee hours, up end of day, and vice versa, it's reversal flip a coin daily as good economic news, not necessarily valid, vies with impending rate hikes. We'll know by end of this buying season, if the slightest hint joesixpac gets an over due raise, the system can only tolerate shoveling money to the banks. Perish forbid joe get any relief in fifteen years of middle class wage contraction, on top of about 30% inflation all goods and services. In the meantime, the currency end of silver remains an anchor and the dollar gets a boost from Europe's three year's too late credit increase and money printing, which normally does not spell good news for stocks over there, and Chinese junk continues to sell well, witness the long return lines at Home Depot.


    Sep 8 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jul - $17.0B $17.8B $17.3B -
    Sep 9 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Jul - NA NA 4.671M -
    Sep 10 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/06 - NA NA 0.2% -
    Sep 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jul - 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -
    Sep 10 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/06 - NA NA -0.905M -
    Sep 11 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/06 - 310K 300K 302K -
    Sep 11 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/30 - 2500K 2495K 2464K -
    Sep 11 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 09/06 - NA NA 79 bcf -
    Sep 11 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Aug - NA NA -$147.9B -
    Sep 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug - 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% -
    Sep 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% -
    Sep 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug - NA NA 0.3% -
    Sep 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug - NA NA 0.0% -
    Sep 12 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep - 83.5 83.5 82.5 -
    Sep 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul - 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% -

  • mardermj mardermj Sep 11, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    ...and like clockwork, yahoo financial pundits are raging this AM 9/11 not with remembrances of the attack, but the Fed meeting next week which "might" change language pointing the way to higher overnight rates, as if that isn't a fait accompli around Spring 2015 per Yellens vote for six months post tapering bond buying. Yields are creeping upward, inspite of the US economy being the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry bin--and will only last as long as it takes for Europe to gain traction it overlooked in its corrrect, but lonely assumption to pursue austerity in a vacuum. If the US had played along, we all might have avoided this bubble, but look at the dollar improving--which kills exports according to some, and will only get "worse" by getting stronger.

    You know what that does to the lemmings who might be in gold and silver, it aint good. GLTA.

  • mardermj mardermj Sep 12, 2014 7:33 AM Flag

    The FOMC language next week is the way markets anticipate--as the end of easy money dissipates, looming rate hikes using the same misguided meddling that never should have lowered them in he first place, spell disaster for both silver and gold, as if a 50% haircut off peak valuations isn't enough signal. I'm half cash by weekend, next week the carbuncle on the bottom of the market's unsteady footwork, Fed "policy" overshadows any burgeoning economic news--good news is bad for easy money, bad news is bad, these are not good odds for longs anywhere in my mumblin opinion. GLTA.

43.35-0.07(-0.16%)Oct 30 4:07 PMEDT

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