Madam Yellen Rate Popper the 1st has put a nail on "patience", so we're back to month to month cliffhangers like the bad old days, all starting June, which will make volatility sing on the eve of every meeting next till the first 1/4 point drifts into view around XMAS, three to five years too early. So we game the Fed with every stat. Home sales will falter. CPI must crumble. Claims must stagnate. GDP must limp at 2.5% You get the picture. Good news is bad news, and bad news is bad news as the market gets to breach 15 year old highs. It will go 20% higher, but not without rock and roll.
And as Alan Freed said, you'll NEVER kill rock and roll. And he's been right for sixty five years. C'mona my house?
Mar 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Feb - 4.70M 4.90M 4.82M -
Mar 24 8:30 AM CPI Feb - 0.3% 0.2% -0.7% -
Mar 24 8:30 AM Core CPI Feb - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% -
Mar 24 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jan - NA NA 0.8% -
Mar 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Feb - 440K 470K 481K -
Mar 25 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/21 - NA NA -3.9% -
Mar 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders Feb - 1.0% 0.5% 2.8% -
Mar 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Feb - 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Mar 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/21 - NA NA 9.622M -
Mar 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/21 - 300K 293K 291K -
Mar 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/14 - 2425K 2425K 2417K -
Mar 26 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/21 - NA NA -45 bcf -
Mar 27 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q4 - 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% -
Mar 27 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q4 - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1 -
Mar 27 10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Mar - NA NA 91.2 -
Well the Fed meets on Wednesday and everyone is looking for the word patience to be dropped, setting up a rate hike that not only isn't needed in a deflationary environment, it will crash the market as investors have, for the last drillion of these unnecessary meddlings, made believe all two or three percent is "in" immediately, no matter what these idiots say.
Deflation is here, jobs suck, people are still out of the workforce, and housing is mired in June 2004 prices a decade old.
Having fun yet?
Mar 16 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Mar - 9.0 8.8 7.8 -
Mar 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Feb - 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% -
Mar 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb - 79.4% 79.5% 79.4% -
Mar 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Mar - 55 56 55 -
Mar 16 4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan - NA NA $35.4B -
Mar 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Feb - 1040K 1070K 1053K -
Mar 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Feb - 1030K 1040K 1065K -
Mar 18 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/14 - NA NA -1.3% -
Mar 18 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/14 - NA NA 4.512M -
Mar 18 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Mar - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/07 - NA NA NA -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/14 - 300K 294K 289K -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/07 - 2420K 2420K 2418K -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q4 - -$105.0B -$105.0B -$100.3B -
Mar 19 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Mar - 8.0 7.2 5.2 -
Mar 19 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Feb - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Mar 19 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/14 - NA NA -198 bcf -
and conversely Friday the 6th of March good news is bad news --'stocks are taking it in the ear this morning anticipating the FOMC interest rates blasting quarter percent 2 months from now. are you trying to make sense of this market? shame on you.
Jobs, Claims, gaming the Feds next waffle words, what else is new? Drifting at all time highs, what propels this general market? More downside than upside. As we await the announcement, from the Fed, they are about to torture us month to month, which will cause volatility to roar. GLWT.
Mar 2 8:30 AM Personal Income Jan - 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% -
Mar 2 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jan - -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -
Mar 2 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Jan - 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -
Mar 2 10:00 AM ISM Index Feb - 51.0 53.0 53.5 -
Mar 2 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jan - 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% -
Mar 3 2:00 PM Auto Sales Feb - NA NA 5.5M -
Mar 3 2:00 PM Truck Sales Feb - NA NA 8.1M -
Mar 4 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/28 - NA NA NA -
Mar 4 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Feb - 230K 220K 213K -
Mar 4 10:00 AM ISM Services Feb - 55.5 56.5 56.7 -
Mar 4 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/28 - NA NA 8.427M -
Mar 4 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Mar - NA NA NA -
Mar 5 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Feb - NA NA NA -
Mar 5 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/28 - 300K 295K 313K -
Mar 5 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/21 - 2400K 2403K 2401K -
Mar 5 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q4 - -1.6% -2.3% -1.8% -
Mar 5 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Rev Q4 - 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% -
Mar 5 10:00 AM Factory Orders Jan - -0.1% 0.7% -3.4% -
Mar 5 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/28 - NA NA -219K -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Feb - 240K 240K 257K -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Feb - 230K 230K 267K -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Feb - 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Feb - 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Average Workweek Feb - 34.5 34.6 34.6 -
Mar 6 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jan - -$38.7B -$42.0B -$46.6B -
Mar 6 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jan - $12.0B $13.0B $14.8B -
Never forget IWM also trades like a stock as well as a proxy for other stocks.Y ou can trade it all day for $0.50 here and 70 cents there
Dead bang. Four reverse trades of Feb 120's. 120.5's. 121's, 122's against the Rustled2000 for a net of $1000. My life is complete as I know it, with 30 123's due Feb 27 sold for 63 pennies, which should be worth 45 pennies by Monday morning.
...who sang higher and higher. It's as if those missing out the first five years of the recovery are hurrying to get into the market--before--what? The Fed smashes a pin in the balloon. But, the ten year keeps going down and the interest rates get even lower. How long can this mishigass last? I got my dibs on 90-120 days. Keep rocking in the manipulated world.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Feb 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jan - NA NA 5.04M -
Feb 24 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec - NA NA 4.3% -
Feb 24 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Feb - NA NA 102.9 -
Feb 25 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/21 - NA NA -13.2% -
Feb 25 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jan - NA NA 481K -
Feb 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/21 - NA NA -7.716M -
Feb 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/21 - NA NA 283K -
Feb 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/14 - NA NA 2425K -
Feb 26 8:30 AM CPI Jan - NA NA -0.4% -
Feb 26 8:30 AM Core CPI Jan - NA NA 0.0% -
Feb 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jan - NA NA -3.3% -3.4%
Feb 26 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Jan - NA NA -0.8% -
Feb 26 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Dec - NA NA 0.8% -
Feb 26 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/21 - NA NA -111 bcf -
Feb 27 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q4 - NA NA 2.6% -
Feb 27 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4 - NA NA 0.0% -
Feb 27 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Feb - NA NA 59.4 -
Feb 27 10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Feb - NA NA 93.6 -
Feb 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jan - NA NA -3.7%
For once the FOMC minutes were blah, and should be, they're a retread. What is interesting is the deflationary official PPI-contracting while others predicted a pop---and, when is that going to be "revised" so that the Fed does what it wants to do mindlessly anyway, raise interest rates, while housing mortgage rates climb and housing mortgage takers take it on the arches.
Oil is down again today on inventory, so what is taking so long to be reflected at the pump? Nada, it's just greed that slows down speed. Silver got a pop up to mid $16 level, wasn't it just $44 a couple years ago?
Ouch, and I feel that pain.
Last week imports shrank, which doesn't make sense if you think the dollar is stronger and cash is available to the gas happy travelers enjoying cheap oil. And exports shrank, as the strong dollar, and oil not so cheap, hurt those guys.
Talk about world wide dreaded deflationary pressures, the only guy without dread is the employed guy here in the US, unless of course he's food shopping, where size shrinkage has taken the place of inflationary pressures. I note a 30% DECREASE in store brand cleaning soap, versus stuff like TIDE, but the packages of eatables are 10% smaller, at the same price.
Is this the time for US to be hiking interest rates, even at the snail's pace of a quarter a quarter, starting right in the middle of a flagging home buying season? Some of the putzes at the FOMC think so. And that's the real danger to the recovery, those clowns ignore what few stats they can rely on, and put a pin in the balloon right when we're deflating.
Then watch as 40% of the market crash dives without relief, because, those numbers that indicated no interest rate hike were ignored, so, why should logic, common sense, or proper course arise after those initial hikes. I mean, they said, we're watching the numbers. If they DON'T, who'll stop the rain?
This week the lunatics continue their reign, and I relish half the premium to disappear from the covered calls I sold against my Russell2000 long ETF by Tuesday when markets resume post President's Day. That means when idiots review the FOMC Meeting Notes from LAST time looking for alternative DVD endings? That bobble will be countered by low oil prices, as even tho inventories shrink, $2 a gallon gas and $3 a gallon heating oil reign supreme. A traders delight remains.
My God, the market actually works without Fed manipulation vis a vis oil. We have Saudi manipulation to "thank". Best watch when they start selling their US stock holdings I guess.
But I don't think the marginal shale oil producers will last more than a couple months. Tops. As housing falters, the setup is for claims to continue to rise, so that numbers are "bad" enough for traders to gamble on gaming the Fed's next move, which "should" be nada, according to the official "numbers". Never mind the Cambell Chicken Soup which shrunk from 26 to 23oz, or the Carnation Creamer that dropped from 56 to 50 oz, that couldn't possibly be inflation.
So as far as gaming the Fed, folks will say, food doesn't count. The Fed is so screwed up on numbers they can't rely on, they're gaming themselves. If you're trading this market without some downside protection, you're whistling past the graveyard. It could be yours. Word up.
Bad economic news is good news, the world falls apart, the Greeks grok, the Ukraine continues its mad takeover of Eastern Europe, the EURO crumbles, co's report blah earnings and Michigan Sentiment crashes--FOLKS ARE GAMING THE FED'S NEXT MOVE--why, how could the Fed pop overnight rates, says the market, gaming no hike 2015, and bids musical chairs to the highest P/E's EVER. Wait for the old saw "markets always go up 20% after Fed's hikes begin" retreaded.
The problem? If the markets are gaming low inflation and Fed hikes anyway, the Fed pulls any value from that gaming-and off goes the music in the game of musical chairs with no relief possible--low inflation won't stop the sell-off, because the sell-off hasn't low inflation as an excuse to keep investors from imploding--the Fed ignored it once, it ignores it forever. That realization?--it's bombs away.
But until then? 120-150 days down the pike?
Happy investing long anything. See how that works? See end game?
Feb 17 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Feb - 7.0 9.0 9.9 -
Feb 17 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Feb - 57 58 57 -
Feb 17 4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Dec - NA NA $33.5B -
Feb 18 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/14 - NA NA -9.0% -
Feb 18 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jan - 1050K 1070K 1089K -
Feb 18 8:30 AM Building Permits Jan - 1060K 1065K 1032K -
Feb 18 8:30 AM PPI Jan - -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -
Feb 18 8:30 AM Core PPI Jan - 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% -
Feb 18 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jan - 0.0% 0.4% -0.1% -
Feb 18 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jan - 79.7% 79.9% 79.7% -
Feb 18 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 1/28 - - - - -
Feb 19 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/14 - 295K 295K 304K -
Feb 19 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/7 - 2375K 2398K 2354K -
Feb 19 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Feb - 7.0 9.8 6.3 -
Feb 19 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jan - 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% -
Feb 19 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/14 - NA NA -160 bcf -
Feb 19 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 02/14 - NA NA 4.868M -
Inured? Don't be ridiculous. I go almost three times a day, and that's with saw palmetto to help my benign prostate issues, to include hair loss.
Moses, sometimes you just lose me.
Looks like Monday President's Day the markets are closed, so there's only tomorrow to buy shares because ex div day is Tuesday the 17th!!! Can't do anything Monday, so, get them while they're still getable!
If last week was any forecaster of stupidity, the rejiggering of job numbers months after the fact to support the Fed's next stupid blunder, raising interest rates, took the wind out of the sails of all those hoping for less volatility. By Thursday we go threw the same drivel with jobs and unemployment again. It just looks like the Russell2000 is range bound under IWM guise from $116 to $120.50 and back again. Well that's a trade nonetheless. Silver? All over the place.
Feb 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Dec - 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% -
Feb 10 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Dec - - - 4.972M -
Feb 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/07 - NA NA 1.3% -
Feb 11 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/07 - NA NA 6.333M -
Feb 11 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jan - NA NA -$10.3B -
Feb 12 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/07 - 285K 285K 278K -
Feb 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 1/31 - 2375K 2405K 2400K -
Feb 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - -0.2% -0.5% -0.9% -
Feb 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jan - 0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -
Feb 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Dec - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Feb 12 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/07 - NA NA -115 bcf -
Feb 13 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jan - NA NA -1.2% -
Feb 13 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jan - NA NA -0.1% -
Feb 13 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - NA NA 98.1 -
Feb 13 10:00 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - 100.0 98.5 98.1 -
...and Friday was interesting, as a half percent up became a half percent down as the stats on jobs absorbed into the consciousness of those who think good news is the Fed's excuse to poke pins in to the stock market balloon. The pay pop of 1/2% didn't look too good either, and the job numbers were so screwed up last time, or is it this time?--the extra 147,000 jobs they "found" in Nov made it clear, that the Fed looks like it has the excuse to poop the party right in the middle of home selling season.
What a fiasco. SLW lost a buck today.
and Moses nails it, how the government can be off 147,000 added jobs this past winter, and still be reliable enough for the Fed to act BTSOOM. But we keep playing this game over and over, and now the Fed hike for this summer is back on the table, which will, of course, get the looky loos off the duff and out for real estate, the last great gasp before those home prices begin to wilt under the pressure of higher interest rates.
The general market therefore has about 20% to go, and silver and gold will take it in the kiester for the upcoming blast a whole quarter point sometime in July August.
Here they come, banging that pin into the balloon. My IWM is soaring tho, I shan't complain.
I said this at the CC three years ago and I meant it, if AAAA bonds had been managed as successfully as the alleged "junk" in PHT, we would have averted half that crisis. People pay a premium for management--and in this case good management. However, in a sinking tide, all ships flounder.
The fact that the fund has had to make an adjustment this many years AFTER others shows how well it is run.. It's worth the premium.