Monday's a reprieve from economic blather, but here's the rub. "Good" news no matter how badly based, like auto industry sales taking the place of new home sales? The market sees the end of QE, even though we still pour a delta of ANOTHER 1/2 TRILLION into the mix to service this debt--from tax revenue, (joking), or the govt prints it? At end of QE, rates pop, market crashes, just like the other eight times since we won our last war 1946. This is a very pricey dicey time to be in the market--while techo's think the skies the limit just because they've run out of overhead stops, it's like enjoying the quiet when the airplane engines run out of fuel.
Will the airplane make it? Of course it will--all the way to the scene of the crash.
Jul 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jun - NA NA 0.3% -
Jul 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jun - NA NA 0.1% -
Jul 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jul - NA NA 19.3 -
Jul 15 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun - NA NA 0.1% -
Jul 15 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun - NA NA 0.0% -
Jul 15 10:00 AM Business Inventories May - NA NA 0.6% -
Jul 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/12 - NA NA 1.9% -
Jul 16 8:30 AM PPI Jun - NA NA -0.2% -
Jul 16 8:30 AM Core PPI Jun - NA NA -0.1% -
Jul 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows May - NA NA -$24.2B -
Jul 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jun - NA NA 0.6% -
Jul 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jun - NA NA 79.1% -
Jul 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jul - NA NA 49 -
Jul 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/12 - NA NA -2.370M -
Jul 16 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Jul - - - - -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/12 - NA NA 304K -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/05 - NA NA 2584K -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jun - NA NA 1001K -
Jul 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Jun - NA NA 991K -
Jul 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jul - NA NA 17.8 -
Jul 17 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 07/12 - NA NA 93 bcf -
Jul 18 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jul - NA NA 82.5 -
Jul 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jun - NA NA 0.5%
The Fed increases overnight rates, the market will discount not the 1/4 point but the entire two to four percent pop over the next 18 months, and crash taking silver gold and bananas with it. Just like the other eight times since the end of WWII.
Rush to "safety" has folks locking in on unprecedented low rates arising from this idiotic one bank samba being sounded in Portugal--so thanks for the cheap shares and news that is actually bullish for homebuilders.
Thanks for the idiotic selling this morning on drivel that has nothing to do with this company. I love the cheap shares.
Unbelievable. Thanks for being stupid.
Rogers has been saying the same thing for the last ten years, he puts people to sleep because like a stopped watch, eventually he'll be right as he was lucky to guess correctly in the 70's.
Take your meds, a bang up quarter just reported, no news for the next three months just hope for stability.
You want income, sell covered call options every couple weeks.
Yo Sharpster--the other name for Workers is Customers--don't pay them enough to buy what little there's left they produce? Best hope exports carry the country and the rest of the world buys what little we do make--which up to now, is big ticket items in Defense and things like airplanes. But don't tell that to Boeing--they're getting to open up a plant in China--all they have to do is surrender all their century long how-to-manufacture data to the Red Chinese.
See how that is working? No? Me neither. Now it's back to the job. You want biggee fries with that burger?
Expect a runup to 4 July, but good news is bad news, vice versa, and the economy, is trash city per GDP figures previous week. Yellen thinks food and fuel inflation are "noise". She's right, the noise outside her window is everyone asking for her head. Still, siphoning joe's money from corporations charging too much for Chinese produced goods and giving it to banks doesn't help joe, he just gets a new slave owner, which is the real charter of the Fed per Jefferson. Thomas, not incumbent George Jefferson, whose idea of movin on up is a management job at White Castle. Half of America can't pay taxes, 21% of America is underwater in bloated mortgages-- Yellen has to induce 20% inflation next few years to reflate real estate values to give us the illusion we're getting well--same way the govt "pays" off the debt with degraded dollars. In debt we trust, see how that works? It all has a silver lining tho.
Jun 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jun - NA NA 65.5 -
Jun 30 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May - NA NA 0.4% -
Jul 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending May - NA NA 0.2% -
Jul 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jun - NA NA 55.4 -
Jul 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jun - NA NA 5.7M -
Jul 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jun - NA NA 7.7M -
Jul 2 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 06/28 - NA NA -1.0% -
Jul 2 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jun - NA NA 45.5% -
Jul 2 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jun - NA NA 179K -
Jul 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders May - NA NA 0.7% -
Jul 2 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/28 - NA NA 1.742M -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jun - NA NA 217K -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun - NA NA 216K -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jun - NA NA 6.3% -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jun - NA NA 0.2% -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jun - NA NA 34.5 -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/28 - NA NA NA -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/21 - NA NA NA -
Jul 3 8:30 AM Trade Balance May - NA NA -$47.2B -
Jul 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jun - NA NA 56.3 -
Jul 3 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 06/28 - N
I completely blew it. I thought terrible news on the GDP front would decimate the market, just the opposite happened. Folks obviously believe, the worse the economy gets in the real world, the more the Fed will crank up the printing presses. I made no new bets, but juggled options I sold against my holdings a bit, and cranked out a 1.2% profit being long and hedged, for the day, I was AMAZED and hovered over shorting some of my favorite losers but never, wisely, or in this case, luckily, pulling any triggers.
Not only are the insane in charge of the institution, they nap through hurricanes and tornadoes Un-Employment figures are up for grabs this morning as are payrolls, which in my mumbling opinion, will show smaller numbers as joe continues to take part time jobs, and salaries across the board whither in the face of inflation in food and fuel Yellen calls "noise".
Not that she can do anything about it--raising rates just gives us a new payee--the banks, instead of corporations producing nonessentials like food fuel and clothing etc. See how that works? No? Me neither.
But expect bargain hunting for sure.
Jun 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders May -1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation May -0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Jun 25 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q1 -2.9% -1.8% -1.8% -1.0% -
Jun 25 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q1 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% -