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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

margin321 58 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2015 7:15 AM Member since: Jul 18, 1999
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  • margin321 margin321 May 19, 2015 7:15 AM Flag

    You also get the Moly mine - company can't be sold until that is resoived - no one would buy it.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on the buyout?

    by melodius27 May 6, 2015 3:20 PM
    margin321 margin321 May 13, 2015 6:50 AM Flag

    Anyone who thinks they are getting 18.75 is nuts. That was a value calculated on the price of CEQP before the announcement. It represented a premium if the price at the time of the announcement stayed the same. It didn't.

  • margin321 by margin321 Apr 29, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    Mark Larsen stepped down as COO in September. He got a one year executive level job (full time) to move the moly mine forward. How is that going? Not much action that I can see.

  • margin321 by margin321 Apr 25, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    However they fail to address two questions.

    They were naked on hedges when oil proces crashed, except for 10,000 bopd hedges they picked up from ATHLON.

    They have also layered on 55000 bopd hedges at $62 for rest of 2015. That one has yet to play out but could set them up for big losses later in year.

    Transparent financial reporting requires soem discussion of these items. They made BIG money last few years on hedging strategies but they seemed to have been caught naked at the top of oil prices and possibly loaded up at near the bottom.

    There will be few positives for the 1st quarter including the expected Deep panuke windfall from huge algonquin city gate (Boston) procing over the first three months of the year. They also may make some announcement about Haynesville. Hate to see them leave that jewel behind (they can ramp production there anytime they want to 2 BCF) but it has been surpassed a little as pure gas factory by the Marcellus and they also have other huge sources of gas, particularly in Canada. If they get top dollar I guess I am okay. Especially if they can do some bottom dollar bargain bolt-ons in the permian.

  • CVE has refineries. Contributions from the refineries may be surprosingly strong.

  • Or oil treads water. But USEG goes down, down, down. Some resolution of the Moly mine situation might help. Predictable growth in production would have helped but that is about to end after one quarter where we topped Q3 of 2011. There will be big fall off in Q 1.

  • Reply to

    Joe Winslow reporting...

    by joewinslow111 Mar 24, 2015 6:04 PM
    margin321 margin321 Mar 25, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Tony Gwynn made an out during 66.2 percent of his at bats.

  • Do some math. HK North Dakota acres still worth huge dollars.

  • Reply to

    hk news....

    by taylor.lackborne Mar 18, 2015 4:39 PM
    margin321 margin321 Mar 18, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    If Mike Kelly had the SLIGHTEST clue he would have told us the $60 was the new $90 when oil was still at $100, before oil dropped like a rock. Absent that, I see little reason to give any weight to his views about where oil prices will head from here.

  • Reply to

    3 questions

    by margin321 Mar 11, 2015 4:33 PM
    margin321 margin321 Mar 11, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    That's the conference call. That is 1 out of 2. Do you work for them?

  • margin321 by margin321 Mar 11, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Will release be after market tonight.

    Will release be before market tomorrow.

    Why didn't USEG pre-announcement press release include that detail, one of only two things they had to communicate (the other being the time of the conference call and how to access it)

  • Is pretty compelling. They will drill about 10 gross wells this year in TMS. HK and ECA are taking a pause but Goodrich will continue to generate new numbers from the play. TMS is so thick there is Likely room for two horizontals, making it more like a stacked play. HK and ECA have valuable TMS positions that will become compelling at higher oil price point.

  • Reply to

    Borrowing base reaffirmed

    by margin321 Feb 26, 2015 6:44 AM
    margin321 margin321 Feb 26, 2015 6:46 AM Flag

    Must mean they are in complaince with covenants - banks would not reaffirm credit facility if that was not the case.

  • As previously disclosed, the Company's liquidity as of December 31, 2014 was approximately $553 million, which consisted of cash on hand plus undrawn capacity on its senior secured revolving credit facility.

    The borrowing base on Halcon's senior secured revolving credit facility was recently reaffirmed at $1.05 billion in conjunction with the regular spring redetermination.

  • margin321 by margin321 Feb 26, 2015 1:20 AM Flag

    Well the algonquin city gate ng pricing today was $29 which means ECA made about $6 million today on their 200 MMCF. For february price has averaged $15-20 which means 90-120 million in cash for the month. Deep panuke is disappointing - watered up early, resrves dropped from prior estimates. Yet for Q1 each year it is a little windfall, at least last year, this year, next year - until major NE NG bottleneck is resolved. For 2015 Q1 extra cash should be around 200-250 million. that will certainly help Q1 numbers, just like it did last year.

  • Reply to

    Just sold all @ 1.44....

    by keltus1952 Feb 18, 2015 2:48 PM
    margin321 margin321 Feb 24, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    TC just walked away afetr sinking 10's of millions into the Moly mine. They didn't see a payoff coming anytime soon. And they could not sell their controllong nterest (together with the obligations for water treatment - the ultimate negative annuity) to ANYONE for ANYTHING. It just reverted to USEG.

  • Reply to

    Please answer

    by hd317 Feb 22, 2015 1:22 PM
    margin321 margin321 Feb 24, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    There is a little balance between current dividend (if safe) and growth of dividend. If a dividend is half as much, it takes 7 years of 10 percent increase to catch up. And the CMLP dividend will start growing on its own in 2016, making it even harder to a company with lower payout to catch up.

  • Reply to

    Painful ride down.......

    by realamerican5555 Feb 23, 2015 12:45 PM
    margin321 margin321 Feb 23, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    This last buck and change of drop is due to the Quicksilver trouble. Barnett shale is dry gas and isn't working. Quicksilver is in a world of hurt. Yet Barnett shale is still prodiucing gas and it has to be collected and processed and moved to market. And whoever controls or owns the wells will have to keep doing that. If they don't pay, then CMLP doesn't have to move the gas. And someone building a new paralell collecting system would be expensive and is a ludicrous thought - who would build an entirely new system to service a struggling operation unlikely to do much drillign for awhile.

    And Barnett is about 10% of overall CMLP revenue. I'm not panicking, yet. Will add more shares for now, with new money.

  • Reply to

    Just sold all @ 1.44....

    by keltus1952 Feb 18, 2015 2:48 PM
    margin321 margin321 Feb 21, 2015 8:45 PM Flag

    Decades guys, the have had plans to move the moly mine forward for decades. And the even sold it once, unloaded the costs of the water treatment plant, and were just sitting there waiting for the royalty stream. But then Thompson Creek bolted despite tens of millions of dollars of investment there - they ultimately decided it was better to walk away free than continue to carry it. And TC is a mining company!

  • Reply to


    by melodius27 Feb 18, 2015 2:41 PM
    margin321 margin321 Feb 19, 2015 9:56 PM Flag

    Quicksilver won't shut down producing wells with positive ash flow. And CMLP will get their cut on any gas they continue to produce. Volumes may drift down over time if no new wells are drilled, but it doesn't seem to be a big immediate problem. Even the creditors will want existing wells to flow.

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