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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

margin321 132 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 2:15 PM Member since: Jul 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    -233

    by margin321 Jan 31, 2014 5:51 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 31, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    What? Curtailments have to go into effect because the system cannot supply enough gas to the end users. That was my point. Withdrawals would be even higher if everyone who wanted to buy and use nat gas could do that.

  • margin321 by margin321 Jan 31, 2014 5:51 AM Flag

    The -233 was spot on with projections for last week. I bet the -276 projection for next week may also be met Personally I would like to see a minus 300 just for effect. But I don't know if the system can deliver that much gas to customers who want it and could use it. Just here in MN there are 800 commercial customers off nat gas. On the east coast they could use much more nat gas for power generation and heating - but they can't get it there. They could sell a lot more propane if they could move it to customers. Next summer they will have to re- fill every end user propane tank in the midwest. They have already told me my thousand gallon tank will be nearly empty by spring and that they will try to keep that from happening while it is freezing cold by giving me little partial fills if it gets below 30%. But they won't even promise that they can do that.

  • Reply to

    Nat Gas shortage likely

    by uplinvestor Jan 28, 2014 6:47 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 30, 2014 11:28 PM Flag

    Spot on on the -233 (uncanny precision). I bet the -276 for next week may also be close. Personally I would like to see a minus 300 just for effect. But I don't know if the system can deliver that much gas to customers who want it and could use it. Just here in MN there are 800 commercial customers off gas. On the east coast they could use much more gas for power generation and heating - but they can't get it there. They could use a lot more propane if they could move it to customers. Next summer they will have to fill every end user propane tank in the midwest. They have already told me my thousand gallon tank will be nearly empty by spring and that they wil try to keep that from happening while it is freezing by giving me little partial fills if it gets below 30%. But they won't even promise that.

  • Reply to

    Ops Update

    by abama_fan Jan 30, 2014 1:46 PM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 30, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    Good humour - I enjoyed that. LOL as the kids say (text).

  • Reply to

    Ops Update

    by abama_fan Jan 30, 2014 1:46 PM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 30, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    You have to learn the USEG language. "This week" does not mean this week. "This month" does not mean this month. "This year" does not necessarily mean this year. Timely, predictable, and transparent are not their three favorite words.

  • Reply to

    ECA hedges

    by clambo2001 Jan 29, 2014 8:26 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 30, 2014 6:05 AM Flag

    Have to watch revenues, production, liquids production, and cash flow. There will be accounting losses due to downsizing and accounting losses due to the hedges (if nat gas proces stay higher than hedge price point).

  • Reply to

    ECA hedges

    by clambo2001 Jan 29, 2014 8:26 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 30, 2014 5:57 AM Flag

    First supplemental slide on current ECA corporate presentation on their web site.

    2014 Sensitivities
    (1)
    ($ millions) Cash Flow
    (2)
    Operating Earnings
    (2)
    $0.50/Mcf increase/decrease in the NYMEX natural gas price 200 140
    $10/bbl increase/decrease in the WTI oil price 160 110

  • Reply to

    ECA hedges

    by clambo2001 Jan 29, 2014 8:26 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 29, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    50%.

    The cash flow sensitivity of $200 million for every 50 cent increase in natural gas price over $3.75 (nymex) includes the fact that half the gas is hedged at $4.60 or somewhere near that. .

    Of course if nat gas went to $6.75, they would have an extra $1.2 billion in cash flow but would also take accounting losses on all the gas hedged at $4.60 - but that would not change their cash flow projections - they would still have 1.2 billion more than they would have if nat gas prices were at $3.75. They would just have less cash flow than they would if no hedges were in place and would have to account for that. Of course if nat gas prices saty at $3.75 all year, there would be no extra cash flow above their projections, but nice accounting profits on the gas that was sold above market. As for me, let nat gas prices run, I'll take the cash.

  • It would be big if he would quietly let the Keysone pipeline be completed. It makes total sense.

  • Shouldn't that be worth a few pennies? Then tomorrow we get another impressive withdrawal from storage. And then another next week. One of these weeks might hit -300, which is not only a record but a round number milestone. (like 60 home runs in the pre-steroid era).

  • Reply to

    Comments

    by pocilujko Jan 27, 2014 7:50 PM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 28, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    That would be timely, predictable, and would also give them a chance to be more transparent. I do think they would have to do a press release if they posted anything new and important - but an accompanying press release could be part of the new process. Maybe someone could suggest that to Reggie. Even if they did an operations update 3 weeks after end of each quarter - that would go a long way to improving communication.

  • Reply to

    Cash flow

    by margin321 Jan 27, 2014 3:46 PM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 27, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    The analysts are always right.

  • margin321 by margin321 Jan 27, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    1. They will get some kind of a boost from Deep Panuke with NE prrice aberrations. Likely mainly in Q 1 but it could be $100 million or even more.

    2. Their corporate guidance is built on a $3.75 NYMEX price for natural gas and a $3.30 AECO price. Every 50 cent change in NYMEX price adds $200 MILLION to cash flow. $4.75 gas would be worth an extra $400 million in cash flow for 2014.

  • Reply to

    Algonquin city gate (boston natural gas pricing)

    by margin321 Jan 26, 2014 7:40 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 27, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Well the CFO said sales were indexed to something. I think her name is Sherri Brillon (not Brillian)

  • Reply to

    Algonquin city gate (boston natural gas pricing)

    by margin321 Jan 26, 2014 7:40 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 27, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    But remember there are no constraints for shipping Deep Panuke gas right to. Boston. Production from sable field had dropped off and there was capacity on the maritime pipeline for all the deep panuke gas. In fact they were very happy to get it on line.

  • margin321 by margin321 Jan 27, 2014 4:26 AM Flag

    They have been trying to test two deeper gassy zones in the Niobrara science well. (That well spud Oct 2011 - it is not yet completed). It would be nice to have a little gas from that well to sell into current pricing. It is hard to believe that the well may be a three year wonder. It is a vertical well. Meanwhile EnCana is doing soem Niobr horizonals in 13 days.

  • margin321 by margin321 Jan 27, 2014 4:21 AM Flag

    Poster investorclassobserver reports that reggie told him that. First, is that true? Who knows. But if it is true, it is highly material and likely to affect share price. Reggie just can't tell that to one investor who calls in. Second, if he did say it, it is not at all certain that USEG will actually do an operations update this week. Because they seldom follow through and seldom meet their own self-imposed timelines.

    Good financial reporting is timely, predictable, and transparent. Reggie should put that on his refrigerator.
    Telling one caller about the timing of a operations update is not transparent. The flow of information has not been timely or predictable. Maybe they are held hostage by MCF because of their shareholder lawsuits and can't say anything about the Buda. But then they have to do something better than they are. Maybe have an operations update second Monday of every month and release what is public and whatever they can from other areas. Maybe they could give estimate of average production prior month and exit production for the month. Boy that would help. Maybe they could issue their own reserves update on fourth Monday of January. Maybe reggie and th eothers could act like this is a public company - they have a fiduciary responsibility to act in a way that maximizes shareholder value. That includes how they do their financial reporting.

  • Reply to

    More trouble getting enough natural gas

    by margin321 Jan 26, 2014 10:00 PM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 26, 2014 10:01 PM Flag

    sorry about the double post

  • Now it is not just propane. And not just supply constraints in Boston and New York.

    There was a pipeline problem near winnepeg and residential customers of XCEL energy are being asked to set thermostats to 60, not use other nat gas appliances, and get some electric space heaters. Really can't remember stuff like this before.

    Xcel Energy asks natural gas customers to conserve

    MINNEAPOLIS – In the wake of a pipeline rupture in Canada early Saturday morning, Xcel Energy asked natural gas customers in North Dakota, Wisconsin and Minnesota to conserve.

    “Our natural gas supplies currently are adequate, but the situation in the wake of the rupture in a pipeline just south of Winnipeg is still being evaluated,” said Kent Larson, Xcel Energy’s senior vice president for operations.

    Supplies most at risk are those to Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota; East Grand Forks, Moorhead and Brainerd in Minnesota; and the Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls and Menomonie areas in west-central Wisconsin.

    Xcel Energy is asking residential customers in those areas who use natural gas to heat their homes to turn their thermostats down to 60 and avoid using natural gas appliances. Businesses that use natural gas also are asked to conserve.

    Xcel Energy is contacting local officials to ensure they are prepared should conditions change.

    “Customers should consider using electric space heaters if possible; however, caution should be taken to avoid overloading circuits,” Larson said. “Also, please check on elderly or sick relatives or neighbors to ensure they are safe.”

    There is a very remote possibility that supplies for Xcel Energy’s customers in the east Twin Cities metro area, including St. Paul, and other parts of Minnesota also could be affected, Larson said, although southern Minnesota also gets natural gas supplies from pipelines to the south.

    “As a precaution and to maintain system stability, we are asking all natural gas customers to turn their thermostats down as far as possible -- unless doing so would pose a danger to their health or safety -- and to avoid running natural gas appliances. We expect to know more by mid-day Sunday.”
    More trouble getting enough natural gas
    Now it is not just propane. And not just supply constraints in Boston and New York.

    There was a pipeline problem near winnepeg and residential customers of XCEL energy are being asked to set thermostats to 60, not use other nat gas appliances, and get some electric space heaters. Really can't remember stuff like this before.

    Xcel Energy asks natural gas customers to conserve

    MINNEAPOLIS – In the wake of a pipeline rupture in Canada early Saturday morning, Xcel Energy asked natural gas customers in North Dakota, Wisconsin and Minnesota to conserve.

    “Our natural gas supplies currently are adequate, but the situation in the wake of the rupture in a pipeline just south of Winnipeg is still being evaluated,” said Kent Larson, Xcel Energy’s senior vice president for operations.

    Supplies most at risk are those to Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota; East Grand Forks, Moorhead and Brainerd in Minnesota; and the Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls and Menomonie areas in west-central Wisconsin.

    Xcel Energy is asking residential customers in those areas who use natural gas to heat their homes to turn their thermostats down to 60 and avoid using natural gas appliances. Businesses that use natural gas also are asked to conserve.

    Xcel Energy is contacting local officials to ensure they are prepared should conditions change.

    “Customers should consider using electric space heaters if possible; however, caution should be taken to avoid overloading circuits,” Larson said. “Also, please check on elderly or sick relatives or neighbors to ensure they are safe.”

    There is a very remote possibility that supplies for Xcel Energy’s customers in the east Twin Cities metro area, including St. Paul, and other parts of Minnesota also could be affected, Larson said, although southern Minnesota also gets natural gas supplies from pipelines to the south.

    “As a precaution and to maintain system stability, we are asking all natural gas customers to turn their thermostats down as far as possible -- unless doing so would pose a danger to their health or safety -- and to avoid running natural gas appliances. We expect to know more by mid-day Sunday.”

  • Reply to

    Algonquin city gate (boston natural gas pricing)

    by margin321 Jan 26, 2014 7:40 AM
    margin321 margin321 Jan 26, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    The ECA CFO (Sherry Brillian) said at one recent meeting that the output was all sold forward to repsol who has the LNG export facility in New England. But the realized price was tied to NE US pricing. So obviously Repsol would not turn $50 gas to LNG (she mentioned that $50 price as something she thought she would never see in her lifetime) - they would just sell it to NE market and take a wash. but it sounds like ECA may get some spot pricing off and on at prices even higher than those that amazed the CFO. She also said they were getting some nice unexpected boost to cash flow related to Deep Panuke gas selling into shortages in NE US market. Anyway I am not positive about this, but that is the way I heard it. The contract with Repsol was announced long ago and mentioned in ECA 10k. But i didn't rember anything about how the sales to repsol were to be priced until I heard it discussed in the last month. Someone may know this better than I do.

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