1. What about the Utica?
2. Do they still have the woodbine - what exactly did they sell?
3. Do they have another exploratory area somewhere that they are evaluating, or are they settling in exclusively on these three and trying to grow as fast as they can. if so hopefully they can unload the other assets they have fairly quickly, so as not to distract them.
1. EUR estimate for type curve at Ft. Berthold increased to 800k and most recent wells with slickwater fracs look like 970k EUR. Wow.
2. Land position in TMS area is quite impressive. 235K in one area that really is in sweet spot. And another 65 K further west in Louisiana - I don't know as much about that area. They have to execute in the TMS of course. They are leapfrogging even ECA in the aggressiveness of their devlopment plan.
Forecasts of a thaw for the Eastern U.S. next month sent natural gas futures to the steepest two-day decline in more than six years on speculation of reduced demand for the heating fuel.
It is supposed to be bitter cold through mid March. What Bloomberg is saying is that there is a forecast that there will actually be an end to winter this year and that the coming of a spring season is now believed to be inevitable.
With an eagerly awaited report, there are always a few jitters and a little tension between those who think the report might disappoint (and want to get out of the way) and those who think the report will be surprisingly strong (and want to get on board). Lately even very strong reprots ar ebeing met with soem selling pressure after release. So do not get totally discouraged if we slide back a bit on GOOD news. That would be a buying opportunity. (okay, I know, yet ANOTHER buying opportunity).
Not quite like they haven't been doing anything. They have been taking some swings, but so far mostly misses. Some near misses. They got some value from uranium as the exited, and may get some more soon from residual interest. Biggest disappointment in Moly mine was when TC walked. Their Bakken play not great, forced to drop participation right when things were looking up (better results, more benches). Apartments lost half the investment. Eagle ford didn't work. Attempt to operate a prospect didn't work. But buda sure seems to be working. No wonder Keith says Buda, Buda, Buda.
Likely will some positive items. Could be bakken and eagle ford progress and stronger than expected growth. Could be TMS news. Could be asset sale at good price.
They have nat gas in Louisiana (Haynesville) and Texas and Wyoming and Colorado. They are not putting capital in to grow those areas, but they are still producing. Plus they have 300 MMCF/day from Deep panuke selling into high prices at algonquin city gate (Boston).
7H and maybe 8H flow rates will be interesting. NOTHING has happened at Mt. Emmons for years. Just talk. Agree Shooteriing may be a nice little cash infusion, but nothing new about current situation since the last update. .
Hate to stick up for Keith, but...... When he showed the slide with the Q3 financials he made a direct statement that (to paraphrase) these numbers are outdated and q4 numbers much higher but I can't give them until 10Q is filed in a couple of weeks. Also said that the revenue numbers would continue to increase all year.
Thanks. It would be nice to reduce the costs of the Moly mine to: 1. All the activity moving the permits for the mine forward and 2: At the same time negotiating with the town and the BLM to do a land swap and park the Red Lady in protected status forever. Currently they have all those costs plus the cost of running the water treatment plant (in perpituity).
We are down about 1 tag from last year. Eca has 75 percent of gas hedged at below current market so there will be big accounting losses as hedges are marked to market. On the other hand cash flow will be helped by deep panuke gas selling way above hh and by the 25 percent of gas that is not hedged. Remember theyade 9 billion on their hedges in last 5 years and that likely saved the company. Losing opportunity of current higher prices does not put them at risk - they will have MORE cash coming in than they would have if prices has stayed low, but less cash coming in than they would have if they did not have current hedges.
Presentation was stronger. I loved Keith's closing comments. "What I leave you with is pretty obvious. Buda, buda, buda. And with that we'll move to the breakout session." I have listened to a lot of his presentations and this was easily the best. It will be interesting to see the 7H and 8H numbers. I hope they are like the Beeler 4H. IRR of 300% if the wells are drilled for $3 million, and the payoff becomes 6 weeks.
They already said that the Beeler 7 initial rates were positive. They didn't give an IP rate before, and they didn't today. How exactly is that a new piece of information.
One little mistake I made was in only nibbling in CDH back in October. I have followed it for a long time and thought I would dip my toe in the water at 70 cents, anticipating a long time to decide on whetehr to build a substantial position. I only bought 2k shares but I wish I had put more money down. Up about 170% in a few months.
They have some small production (less than 10 MMCF/day) selling into NE market at huge premium pricing. They also have a shale play (Hiram Brooks) on the same acres they are producing. They have huge acres on anticosti island and just signed a complex JV that includes the province government to drill soem wells and decide if it warrants full development. They also have a huge prospect called Old Harry and may actually find a JV to drill that, if the political winds continue to shift toward supporting that project. I htink it is still a good price at $2. I don't know why it is psychologically hare to average up and easy to average down, because it really should be the opposite!
One good Eagleford well would double value of USEG.
Would be nice to get initial production numbers on the 7H. Doubt USEG will say anything tomorrow if MCF didn't mention it today.