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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

margin321 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 16, 2015 2:49 PM Member since: Jul 18, 1999
  • Reply to

    Catching a Falling Knife

    by barrylake69 Nov 13, 2014 1:38 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 16, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    The bottom line is that he raised money by selling shares at $5.25 to go into oil and gas, and now more than 5 years down the road those investors hold shares woth $2.

    If they can monetize the Moly mine, there may be substantial payback then. But it really looks like production is not going to ramp up - rather it is going to slide back toward the 2011 range. September was 50 barrels a day below the quarter average. There are two new wells coming on that won't offset the steep fall off in the old wells. Q4 production wil likely be down. Companies get rewarded for steady predictable growth.

  • Reply to

    Im buyng for its 17TCF of gas

    by auagboy Nov 13, 2014 3:47 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 15, 2014 11:34 PM Flag

    They do have Haynesville, Horn River, Piceance - plus all the gas in the Montney and Duverney. They have "gas optionality" any time they want. Or any time it becomes profitable.

  • Reply to

    USEG Macro View

    by ssuehtemorp Nov 13, 2014 9:32 AM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 15, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Production will be 1000 bopd if they stop all drilling, but will decline from there.

    Meanwhile the profits on 1000 bopd will be soaked up by the $ required to keep the Moly Mine dream alive. Mark is spending one year to move that project forward. His papa, his older brother, and other Larsons have been trying to move that forward for decades.

  • margin321 by margin321 Nov 10, 2014 7:00 AM Flag

    1549 BOED. Revenues just shy of 10 million. Increased expenses for moly mine and for G and A. No earnings. Trouble is it will be hard to show sequential growth from here - 4th quarter likely to fall back.

    STILL there is growth and1549 BOED is UP. But a mixed report for sure. The actual Q report will contain more operating detail and the CC should add color as well.

  • Reply to

    MDU performance in E and P space

    by margin321 Nov 8, 2014 3:11 AM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 10, 2014 1:38 AM Flag

    I don't have that much MDU either. I also am not selling. It could have done a lot better in last few years, if they had executed in the energy space. MDU still has value and may have better relative performance going forward. It pays a dividend. tehy want to increase it every year (they have for decades). Some of the recent years the increase has been pretty wimpy (less than a cent a quarter), but it is good they have that as a priority.

  • Reply to

    Keystone XL Bounce

    by alexalekhine Nov 5, 2014 7:03 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 10, 2014 1:30 AM Flag

    If they execute their plan (they are so far) they wil have a nice growth plan stretching out years, with a steeper slope than most other energy producers. Of course if energy pricing is terrible, the whole sector will suffer. But they call this a cyclical sector for a reason. It cycles down. It cycles up. Meanwhile CVE just steadily grows their business.

  • margin321 margin321 Nov 9, 2014 11:25 PM Flag

    It is supposed to produce 250-300 MMCF for 12 or more years. last year, this year, and maybe next year it will add hugely in the winter with algonquibn city gate pricing (into Boston) very high because of lack of pipeline infrastructure from the marcellus. Deep panuke production dropped to 150 MMCF a day with increased water earler this fall and it is off line for a bit as they try to fix it so they have maximum production for the winter months. It was huge bonanza last year and should be the same this year, some boost to Q4 and huge boost to Q1 2015.

  • Reply to

    MDU performance in E and P space

    by margin321 Nov 8, 2014 3:11 AM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 8, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    I have been following this in real time. There are a lot of bones in the paradox basin including some of mine. Meanwhile under their nose a lot of other companies have figured out the bakken and the other bemches and are making it hum. They had multiple opportunities to get the right land at the right price and operate at a high level. They are 0 for 3 on that while they spread out into some marginal areas and invested heavily there. They dropped there JV with Oasis just before finding out that the TFS doubled or tripled the value of the hildings. I think they forgot that Dakota is part of their name and just did not have their eye on the ball. But the good news in that they can shed the energy and still have a robust growing successful company. They have utiities in growing area with good return on required new investment. They have aggregate, asphalt, concrete, construction services. They have nice midstream assets. They have a diesel refinery coming on line and may build another. There are a lot of other pieces that can do fine over time and provide slowly increasing dividend stream. But it is disappounting to have the oil and gas side in disarray and be shopping it at the absolute worst time.

  • margin321 by margin321 Nov 8, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    A huge holder of HK shares (like 50 million of them) is the CPPIB, a Candadian Pension Plan managing 250 billion for 18 million canadians. They are conservative, but take long term view, and are broadly diversified (when they started they just held canadian bonds). Their philosophy (and I quote) - maximum rate of return without undue risk of loss.

  • Reply to

    Keystone XL Bounce

    by alexalekhine Nov 5, 2014 7:03 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 8, 2014 3:28 AM Flag

    You don't just have to "have it in mind" with respect to 3-5 year outlook where production is substantially higher than today. Oil is in ground, projects are sequentially being approved and built, and the blueprint through 2018 has been laid out in detail in their corporate presentation for the last several years , and is updated every quarter. And they have stayed on track.

  • margin321 margin321 Nov 8, 2014 3:17 AM Flag

    Mt Emmons is a multi-year dream. (multi decade really). Mark has a one year contract. What do you think he will accomplish?

    I wonder if there will be update on finding a new COO. Net effect of that wil be transforming one big salary into two big salaries.

  • Let's face it. It has been awful. It is beyond frustrating.

    They WHIFFED totally on the Bakken. It is beyond frustrating for a North Dakota energy company. Their land position was small, much of it in sub-prime areas, they weren't great operators, they bought and sold land at the wrong time, they partnered with Oasis and then sold out early, just as bakken was being figured out.

    Just look what HK has done with their FBIR land position - moved in, went to pad drilling on multiple benches, tweaked completion, moved type curves to over 800k and now near 1MM k/well, quickly boosted production to 30,000 heading to 40,000 bopd with 4 now 3 rigs. HK was late to the party and identified an area that was a little overlooked. MDU was there before the party started and couldn't figure out what was happening.

    If MDU had done any of that it would be a whole different world, Instead the became experts in the paradox valley and cornered that market.

    So at least leaving energy explration and production isn't that bad, it is obviously not a competency.

    What yuo have left is construction and infrastructure and utility company sitting by luck in biggest boom area in the country. Hope they can make that work. Should be going a little better there too.

  • Reply to

    Permiam Basin is an Oil Monster

    by beaner9576 Nov 6, 2014 1:03 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 7, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    The diagrams on the HK presentation showing how they are exploiting the Multiple benches off the same pads (at FBIR) are amazing. ECA thinks they can do the same on the new land, as others are doing.

  • Reply to

    See any similarity between ECA and EOG

    by sparky168 Nov 5, 2014 2:26 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 5, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    ECA doesn't have a Permian play, do they?

  • Reply to

    Sept Utah production

    by dkwilk Nov 5, 2014 3:42 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 5, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    what do they show?

  • Probably the worst time to sell in a few years. The paradox basin kiled me one time with DPTR and it is killing me again - very hare to get consistent wells trying to suck oil out of salt sandwiches.

  • Reply to

    Goldman Sachs Report

    by railhead23 Oct 30, 2014 12:05 PM
    margin321 margin321 Nov 1, 2014 6:44 PM Flag

    I didn't read the Goldman report. Maybe soemone could tell me if they included the hedges in making their 2015 projections. I don't really see HK having a $614 million funding gap in 2015 when they have 31,332 bopd hedged at floor price of $87.29. Now the hedges are lighter for 2016 at this point, but 2015 has some pretty robust hedges, purpose of which is to preserve cash flow needed for drilling capex and avoid a $614 million funding gap.

  • 1. Fassman with 5329 foot lateral

    2. Shuckrow

    3. SD Smith with 7556 foot lateral.

    These three have been producing for a while and have not had any problems - should be able to get 30 day production numbers.

    4. George martins - 7000 foot lateral. Fracked, flowing, but earlier.

    Don't know what kind of update here, maybe IP number.

    5. Gaulden

    Rumours of serious technical problems. Spud a while back. No mention of completing or fracking

    6. Cottage West - finished drilling, waiting for fracking

    7. Rogers - just started drilling

    Likely nothing to say on these two wells.

    There is also a lot of production data coming from ECA and Goodrich.

  • margin321 margin321 Nov 1, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    Kind of funny but the cc will also have:

    1. Actual number on Bakken production growth
    2. Revenue number for Q3.
    3. production numbers on 2-4 TMS wells
    4. Some projections for Q 4 including Bakken growth rate
    5. Details about rig deployment

    Right now the numbers may be more important than the commentary

  • margin321 by margin321 Oct 31, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    They have always been very good at ramping production. The FBIR is the only place with flat out development drilling and should surprise to upside. At ElHalcon most of drilling is to hold leases and they have not transitioned to full pad based development, so growth won't be as impressive. And TMS very early so most we get is production info on a few of the recent wells.

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