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Cheniere Energy, Inc. Message Board

margretbar2 663 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 5, 2014 10:48 AM Member since: Jul 1, 2008
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  • FDX, YRCW and JBHT added to SOLAR buy list at Deutsche

  • margretbar2 by margretbar2 Oct 26, 2009 12:12 PM Flag

    Weatherford is the fourth-largest oil service company (No. 3 by market cap) in the world and trades at a significant discount to its peers -- 29% discount to Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) and 17% to Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) -- and I think that is unjustified. It has spent the last few years buying/building out its foreign infrastructure and is in better position to win bids, gain market share and is positioned well for the recovery. After two disappointing quarters, the company is in show-me mode, but I believe it will execute on its plan especially with it's exposure to the fast-growing international markets coupled with the stabilization in North America, easy comparisons and low expectations. Management expects to grow its international business by 30% in 2010, which is $2 billion in incremental revenue (based on contracts the company has in hand), driven by its exposure in Russia, Middle East and Latin America. It has the highest leverage to the resource-rich Middle East/Asian markets (26% of total revenue), which carries high incremental margins. In the States, the company indicated that the healing process has begun with price stabilization and that its cost-cutting efforts will lead to improved margins in the fourth quarter.

    I'll continue to pick up shares on weakness.

    After my trades, I will own 1,300 shares of Weatherford, for 0.86% of the portfolio, and 1,800 shares of Chevron, for 4.71% of the portfolio.

    Regards,

    Jim Cramer

  • margretbar2 by margretbar2 Oct 26, 2009 10:36 AM Flag

    Weatherford is the fourth-largest oilfield service company (OFS) in the world (third-largest by market cap), with a strong international focus after years of heavy investments and acquisitions in the Middle East, Latin America and Russia. The company likes to call it the "plumber of the oil and gas industry," with directional drilling, completion systems, artificial lifts and casing/tubing as its largest businesses. Directional drilling accounts for 13% of Weatherford's revenue and is the fastest-growing segment and highest-margin business for the company. It is a $7 billion market, and Weatherford has increased its ranking over the years through its Precision acquisition and is now the fourth-largest player. Completion Systems, 16% of Weatherford's revenue, helps the flow of production and is a $6 billion industry. Weatherford has a 17% market share, tied for third with Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE). Artificial lifts are pumps that improve production and Weatherford is the market leader, with 27% global share due to its vast and superior suite of products. This is a $5 billion market and represents 13% of Weatherford's revenue. And casing/tubing, 11% of Weatherford's revenue, provides structure and services for new and existing wells and is one of Weatherford's established core competencies with No. 1 market share.

    The long-term theme is powerful for the OFS industry: international expansion and the rise of technology innovation. As oil and natural gas get harder to find, the need for better technology and products/services has expanded. After all it's the expertise of the OFS companies that can help extract the oil/natural gas faster, increase recovery times, locate hard to find reserves, reduce drilling times, etc. What makes Weatherford attractive is not only that it can offer these services in the mature North American region but that it has a strong position in the resource-rich international markets, which are the fastest-growing. On a trailing-four-quarter basis, its revenue breakdown is 40% North America, 26% Middle East/Asia, 17% Latin America and 16% Europe/Africa. Out of the major OFS companies, Weatherford has the largest leverage to the Middle East/Asian markets. Another theme for the OFS industry is the price changes to the commodities, both oil and natural gas. Price swings influence the rig activity level and the capex budgets for its customers, and given the recovery in oil and natural gas, the rig count has begun to grow. Capex budgets remain tight but should improve over the next year, which should lead to more business for the OFS industry, Weatherford included.

    The stock has lagged the group and offers a very attractive valuation – 8.8 times 2010 EV/EBITDA, which is a 29% discount to Schlumberger and a 17% discount to Halliburton (HAL:NYSE). The reason is because it missed earnings projections for the last two quarters, partly due to execution issues (slower collections) and partly due to the challenging economic climate (slower project/timing of deals). But the company made encouraging comments about 2010, and the valuation is discounting the bad news. Specifically, Weatherford expects international growth of 30% (or 3 times the industry average), 5% to 10% Latin American growth, North American volume improvements, stronger prices (now that prices have bottomed in North America and internationally) and lower costs, which should lead to further margin expansion.

    I believe that as the environment recovers, Weatherford is in good position to win more contracts and benefit from the recovery in prices along with its lower structural costs. The cheap valuation and low expectations give support to the shares, and the discount to its peers should narrow on improved execution and better macro trends over time.

    After my trades, I will own 2,300 shares of Marathon, for 2.62% of the portfolio, and 1,000 shares of Weatherford, for 0.67% of the portfolio.

  • margretbar2 by margretbar2 Oct 26, 2009 10:32 AM Flag

    20-Oct-09 06:48 ET WFT Weatherford: Expect bounceback after tough quarter - FBR Capital (19.92 )
    FBR Capital notes WFT reported a low-quality in-line quarter due to a tax benefit; of the $0.13, $0.05 were from a tax benefit as the co reevaluated its full-year tax rate. The main variance to their model was weak Latin American margins at 10.4%, vs their expectation for 17% and last quarter's margin of 18.4%. Margins for the Middle East region also fell 385 bps sequentially, ahead of their expectation for a 164-bp decline, as the co cited start-up costs. WFT has become an out-of-favor stock after missing the last two quarters. Despite weakness in Canada in 2Q09 and Mexico in 3Q09, they believe that the international growth story at WFT remains intact and that if most of mgmt's guidance for 30% international income growth in 2010 is achieved, shares of WFT should see meaningful upside. They reiterate their $38 tgt.

  • 22-Oct-09 09:26 ET WFT Tax help for Chicontepec; favorable 2010 implications for service co's - Credit Suisse
    Credit Suisse notes initial newswires appeared to suggest additional taxes were being imposed on Pemex and thus created some perception of risk related to Pemex spending. In fact, Pemex's tax burden on Chicontepec production is slated to fall in all but high price oil scenarios. Concerns about Chicontepec spending have persisted since early last month due to field production levels (which languish at 30-35K b/d, apparently attributable in large measure to lack of take-away capacity). Thus firm sees the government's effective "endorsement" of Chicontepec as helpful to shares - WFT has the most exposure, contributing $0.30 of EPS in 2010 on its $0.85 est, while SLB likely earns a few cents from the field next year and HAL and BHI still less.

  • margretbar2 by margretbar2 Oct 21, 2009 8:49 AM Flag

    20-Oct-09 09:59 ET TXIC Tongxin International: Note Chinese auto parts play running on rumor of large contract; IBD100 Tracker believes this is a potential IBD polay if it can get above $15 (11.71 +0.46) -Update

    20-Oct-09 09:55 ET TXIC Tongxin International: Hearing chatter related to large contract (11.55 +0.30)

  • margretbar2 by margretbar2 Sep 30, 2009 11:44 AM Flag

    30-Sep-09 10:16 ET BX Blackstone target raised to $19 at JMP Securities (14.10 +0.05)
    JMP Securities raises their BX tgt to $19 from $17 as they believe both strong performance of BX's portfolio companies and the recovery of the IPO market provide two key growth catalysts for the firm.

  • looks almost like something is up...we shall see

  • Reply to

    Typical Predictable Parameters YRCW

    by laicized_by_default Sep 17, 2009 11:08 AM
    margretbar2 margretbar2 Sep 24, 2009 12:06 PM Flag

    Thank you

  • Hain Celestial Group Inc.
    $ 19.28

    HAIN
    -0.08



    Short Interest (Shares Short)
    5,382,900

    Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
    12.3

    Short Percent of Float
    13.49 %

    Short Interest - Prior
    5,807,400

    Short % Increase / Decrease
    -7.31 %

    Short Squeeze Ranking™
    -62



    % From 52-Wk High ($ 31.24 )
    -62.03 %

    % From 52-Wk Low ($ 11.18 )
    42.00 %

    % From 200-Day MA ($ 16.10 )
    16.49 %

    % From 50-Day MA ($ 17.22 )
    10.68 %

    Price % Change (52-Week)
    -37.50 %



    Shares Float
    39,910,000

    Total Shares Outstanding
    40,700,911

    % Owned by Insiders
    %

    % Owned by Institutions
    %

    Market Cap.
    $ 784,713,564

    Trading Volume - Today
    197,297

    Trading Volume - Average
    436,600

    Trading Volume - Today vs. Average
    45.19 %

    Earnings Per Share
    -0.61

    PE Ratio


    Record Date
    2009-SepA



    Sector
    Consumer Goods

    Industry
    Processed & Packaged Goods

    Exchange
    NAS

  • margretbar2 margretbar2 Sep 23, 2009 6:30 AM Flag

    Please note that Starent Networks has gone up 6 points in less than a month since Wedbush's call

    02-Sep-09 08:42 ET STAR
    Starent Networks upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush Morgan; tgt $27 (19.62 ) : Wedbush Morgan upgrades STAR to Outperform from Neutral and sets target price at $27 as the firm believes that competitive initiatives to diminish the company's opportunity to grow in the out years are not sufficiently challenging to avoid the price opportunity in the stock. The firm notes that their updated perspective is that the status quo will likely prevail with respect to UMTS/HSPA and that the company's competition plans to ride the LTE deployment wave to bring new packet gateway technology to market. This is not incrementally threatening since the firm believes STAR has a product pipeline to call or raise the stakes as operators make commitments to LTE and they believe LTE may be a long time coming in many cases. Further, the firm notes that Cisco (CSCO) now emphasizes transport more and packet core less, effectively conceding the role of STAR, in the firm's opinion.

  • On Wall Street! They are quoted on Bloomberg News hundreds of times a month...I made so much on their calls, OVTI and so many others. They cover the a whole spectrum of co.'s Retail, Tech, Cyclicals the whole range.

    28-Aug-09 09:18 ET OVTI
    OmniVision: Color on Quarter (13.30 ) -Update : Wedbush Morgan raises their OVTI tgt to $20 from $17 following the co's better than expected FQ1 results and its spectacular FQ2 guidance significantly ahead of the firm's Street high estimates. The firm believes that considerable upside remains given the firm's expectations for strong Y/Y earnings and revenue growth. They recommend investors continue to build their positions in OVTI due to ramp of Smartphone design wins at several leading Tier I handset OEMs, gross margin expansion from better product mix of higher average selling price and gross margin 2 megapixel and above image sensors, technology leadership with OmniBSI architecture and CameraCube products, material revenue contributions from emerging end markets, particularly the high ASP and gross margin Automotive market, and strong positioning in the fast growing notebook and netbook end markets... Canaccord Adams raises their Q3 EPS est to $0.15 from ($0.10) (consensus ($0.04)) and their FY09 and FY10 ests to ($0.05) and $0.73 from ($0.59) and ($0.15)(consensus ($0.14) and $0.39), respectively, after the OVTI delivered modest upside to Q1 results and guided revenues and EPS meaningfully ahead of consensus. In addition, the firm raises their OVTI tgt to $15 from $11. The firm believes that investors have been anticipating a partial recovery and expects minimal gross margin upside to continue while strength from smartphones and notebooks is expected to drive to the upside going forward.

    04-Sep-09 09:19 ET OVTI
    OmniVision: Mgmt reiterated that it expects in Q4 the emergence of an entirely new end market for image sensor industry - Wedbush (14.62 ) : Wedbush notes mgmt indicated it expects a multimedia application with a digital still camera to ship this holiday season incorporating OmniVision's image sensor. They thought mgmt continued to be very upbeat at their meeting following its FQ1 (July) results announced on August 27 where it posted a beat quarter and provided guidance significantly above the Street. Mgmt reiterated that it continues to see strong demand from the growing end markets of Smartphones and notebooks/netbooks and that it expects in Q4 the emergence of an entirely new end market for image sensor industry. Mgmt stated that it expects its image sensor will be used in a multimedia application that is set for release for the holiday season. While the co would not provide any color on its customers, they believe this innovative and industry leading multimedia product is likely APPL's iPod touch.


    02-Sep-09 08:42 ET STAR
    Starent Networks upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush Morgan; tgt $27 (19.62 ) : Wedbush Morgan upgrades STAR to Outperform from Neutral and sets target price at $27 as the firm believes that competitive initiatives to diminish the company's opportunity to grow in the out years are not sufficiently challenging to avoid the price opportunity in the stock. The firm notes that their updated perspective is that the status quo will likely prevail with respect to UMTS/HSPA and that the company's competition plans to ride the LTE deployment wave to bring new packet gateway technology to market. This is not incrementally threatening since the firm believes STAR has a product pipeline to call or raise the stakes as operators make commitments to LTE and they believe LTE may be a long time coming in many cases. Further, the firm notes that Cisco (CSCO) now emphasizes transport more and packet core less, effectively conceding the role of STAR, in the firm's opinion.

  • margretbar2 margretbar2 Sep 22, 2009 6:41 AM Flag

    They make money...they have an
    EPS...they make .20 a share...DNDN made no money! No position........

  • Reply to

    Cramer all over SNV...buy on weakness

    by margretbar2 Sep 17, 2009 11:35 AM
    margretbar2 margretbar2 Sep 17, 2009 6:52 PM Flag
  • You have a lot of nerve...GNW is a strong buy! $18 Target from DB...and $17 fro, i don't remember who,...Crmaer said it was a Bluchip now, on Stop Trading...go away...cover!

  • Reply to

    Cramer says GNW is a blue chip

    by cats04_99 Sep 17, 2009 2:39 PM
    margretbar2 margretbar2 Sep 17, 2009 2:41 PM Flag

    He sure did...on Stop Trading....$18 target from DB

  • Jim Cramer
    Synovus
    9/17/2009 9:51 AM EDT

    I have an article on regional banks on the left-- i urge people to buy Synovus on the broken print price this morning.. SNV!

  • Reply to

    Macau,Cramer,Wynn,LVS, MGM

    by cashola_1999 Sep 15, 2009 2:54 PM
    margretbar2 margretbar2 Sep 15, 2009 2:57 PM Flag

    io heard him...Macau is hot!

  • >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • Regions Fincl: Summary of presentation at Barclays conference; CEO says no need for additional capital (5.77 +0.26) -Update
    RF's CEO at the Barclays conference notes they are actively de-risking the balance sheet. Notes they took a 31% average write down on real estate loans upon migration to NPA. Notes the co's Net Charge-Offs have been well below Fed's Stress Test level (RF is at $881 mln vs. stress test level of $2.3 bln), and believes they'll be in the middle of the previously stated range by the end of 2010. Says they absolutely will not need to raise additional capital, and would like to pay back the TARP as soon as they get approval to... Co is growing customer deposits at a greater pace than ever before, and the co's CEO believes it is a greatly undervalued franchise.

    Plus Crmaer is talking about it on Real money...loves RF

LNG
65.98-2.99(-4.34%)Aug 3 4:00 PMEDT