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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

mario_themario 12 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: May 23, 2005
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  • Reply to

    MO crushed it & the stock plunges 2%?!!!!

    by savvvvy Jul 29, 2015 12:39 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario 22 hours ago Flag

    Not buying it. RAI is up with lower yield, higher P/E current + forward. MO on the lower end of yield BUT the divvy increase will be announced in Aug as usual. Stock buyback added again. This is now grossly oversold when compared to its peer RAI, plus, MO has what RAI doesn't have, revenues outside tobacco in SAB. The asset value of that investment could eliminate the entire debt in MO.

  • Reply to

    Unfortunately

    by mario_themario Jul 29, 2015 6:50 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jul 30, 2015 8:19 AM Flag

    It's all about guidance in the short term. Look at BWLD + PNRA, both missed top and bottom line, both surged on guidance. Would I buy either 1, no. Valuations are too high for projected growth. Some concern here as beyond the next QTR they didn't really give any meaningful color on the outlook going forward and how long the slowdown will last.

  • mario_themario by mario_themario Jul 29, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    They lowered guidance 14% and the stock is down, 14%. What do you expect. I bought based on that idiot Navellier's rec to buy below 86, luckily I bought well under that but still lost a bunch today. That was horrible guidance.

  • Reply to

    Piper views Receptos buyout as good for Arena

    by sharonconk Jul 15, 2015 7:17 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jul 17, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Take the Piper view with a grain of salt, remember, they were the architect and beneficiary of the last stock secondary and want to maintain that relationship as ARNA will need another one. The pipe is strong but it takes bucks to move it forward and unfortunately, our worthless partner isn't helping with reduced ads and salespeople. That hook up was the worst we have done and the cause of why B hasn't moved. The other indications particularly smoking cessation is huge but E doesn't have the capital to move it, along with getting other countries to approve the drug. The hype has already fizzled and we've already given back all those gains. Bought this long ago pre-approval and wasn't expecting much and knew it was a multi-year story, just a tad irate about our lousy partner E and their lack of engagement.

  • Reply to

    Anyone else go short today?

    by dthe98 Jul 1, 2015 11:27 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jul 7, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    Let me guess, after you shorted at the high of the day, great move, you covered today at 19.62 the low of the day right? I'm pretty good at picking stocks after the fact too.

  • Reply to

    Devastating article in Macau business daily

    by dthe98 Jun 24, 2015 12:46 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 24, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    Very astute analysis, you sound like a sharp investor who knows his stuff. Being that elite investor you are, why wait, short the stock here and/or buy in the money puts.

  • Reply to

    Casino stocks down in Hong Kong!

    by jane_tate Jun 22, 2015 10:18 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 23, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Good call, marked it.

  • Reply to

    TP Notes from the Jefferies BO session

    by gscgaryc Jun 10, 2015 8:22 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 10, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    One part is not true, this was printed 4/13/15
    Buyout Targets

    Jefferies recommends buying the following 10 potential M&A targets:

    1. Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
    ARNA 1.4%

    2. Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
    LXRX 1.33%

    3. Seattle Genetics, Inc.
    SGEN 0.15%

    4. Sangamo Biosciences, Inc.
    SGMO 0.98%

    5. DHT Holdings Inc
    DHT 0.49%

    6. BioScrip Inc
    BIOS 0.55%

    7. OraSure Technologies, Inc.
    OSUR 1.07%

    8. Sonus Networks, Inc.
    SONS 0.26%

    9. NuVasive, Inc.
    NUVA 2.36%

    10. Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc
    MDRX 2%

  • Reply to

    MPEL DIVIDEND

    by paulchironis Jun 8, 2015 6:34 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 8, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Look at historical prices already paid

  • mario_themario by mario_themario May 6, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    The stock is down over 21% since 4/9. Based on all the other casino stocks expect another 5 - 10% decline tomorrow when they miss and they will miss. The positive is the same as the negative, the opening of the new casino. The positive is the open and at least the expected number of tables. The negative, the open with below or no gaming tables. Macau is going to shoot themselves in the foot with all their constraints, ie smoking bans, table allocations, reduced number of tourists. In a perverse way I hope they adopt everything and everyone stops going and the country plunges into a depression. Bottom line, don't buy here but wait till that decision is made. Keeping my shares as they are well under water but miracles do happen.

  • Reply to

    what do you think of CYTK?

    by bionic_man_x May 1, 2015 10:02 AM
    mario_themario mario_themario May 1, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    Read my prior post I think something lol.

  • mario_themario by mario_themario May 1, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Only issue I heard was the length of the studies, not looking for anything until the earliest 2017 for possible approval. Cash on hand to cover +20 months and any milestone payments will extend that and there will be some.
    Placed an order to buy at 5.50, watched it drop to 5.51 expecting to buy and it went up and never covered.

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