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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

mario_themario 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2014 2:18 PM Member since: May 23, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 12:11 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Spencer is out with his latest + he too sees a miss. I don't think the company will address half of the questions he's asking + the street will reflect this in share price. Jack + crew need to step up and start answering these type of questions so the street can "feel" more comfortable with the projections the company is making or we will continue to see lower or stagnant prices.

  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 12:11 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    Take a look at the 3 month chart and what do you see? A stock that has a steep slope down and it has nothing to do with just today its been trending down for some time. JL helped it along with his sale as the street didn't like it. I said there maybe some manipulation but not to the degree everyone is saying. I totally ignore the bashers and place the new ones on ignore as soon as they hit.
    Another thing to consider is that they are many funds/institutions that are not allowed to hold stocks that are under 5/share.
    I agree that there are glimmers of hope on the traction front but it needs to escalate for this stock to move up. Positive results on Belphen and the pipe wouldn't hurt either.

  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 12:11 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    Continued, other catalysts are Belphen, smoking cessation, advancement of the pipe, and others.
    PS start the thumbs down now. Need to take a real look and not just the rose colored glasses look. I still have my 10K shares and never sold because I always felt a buyout could come at any time until chief bozo sold that stake. Still think a better entry for shares will be after the report on Fri when hopefully the last of the bad news comes out with not meeting sales + rev. The increase in reps + the commercials should move sales above target going forward.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mario_themario by mario_themario Jul 28, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Wow, this is a dysfunctional board. More than 70% is on ignore including the pom pom queens that say nothing like baba and henri. The posts that the stock is being manipulated to a minor degree maybe correct, but come on, 100 share blocks like today when the vol may hit the daily avg by midday?!?!? Everyone bashes Spencer but at least he tries to give a subjective viewpoint. I'd rather see that than to the moon, 100 by tomorrow, 1000 by next year. That all being said look at the numbers.
    IF the analyst numbers are correct we are slated to lose .33 by the end of the year including the Q reporting on Fri. We are projected to lose .34 next year. That's over 145MM. IMO we will not hit the Q number on Fri + the stock will take another hit + possibly push us toward 4/share or below. The calls are always before the bell + there won't be any earth shaking news. JL did us no favors by selling that large block + why did he need that much cash to relinquish that large a stake. The EU is dead + Eisai hasn't done us any favors either. I've said before I thought they were doing a lousy job + slow played it, hence firing Coates. Commercials in the time slots they started with? Who is fat watching syfy at 1 AM. This is a cash issue with Eisai in that they don't have it to spend freely on B otherwise we would be prime time + the sales force would be 1000 like Takeda has said they would throw at contrave.
    I still like the long term story but its now 2 years out until sales can finally sustain the pipe which has huge promise. VVUS is dead + OREX may get a pop on contrave approval but their only other drug in their pipe is also weight loss. The cash burn will necessitate another secondary at the latest 1st Q of next year. Possible catalysts would be other submissions for B in other countries + some approvals but Eisai is also lagging there.
    Basically we chose the wrong partner. I don't think they want B to grow too fast so they can delay the royalty payments due.

  • mario_themario by mario_themario Jul 7, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    By selling at 5.85 he saved $134,115 at today's price. Who said Jack was stupid.

  • Reply to

    More Nonsense from Barrons and MS dweebs

    by squeezetracker Jun 27, 2014 12:51 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 28, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    I don't get how they're the most "expensive stock". Looking at forward P/E they are the cheapest in the group. Another ignored metric is debt with MPEL having by far the lowest debt load in the group + forget about MGM's debt which is enormous. Now the ANALysts are touting the great comps in Vegas so I guess that will continue going forward and Macau will sink, NOT, yet they keep harping on the VIP segment, the smoking ban, the credit issue, etc, none of which has impacted MPEL thus far as earnings continue to impress. These clowns are positioning their clients into the right stocks by jaw boning stocks like MPEL down, to try + get the price down so their clients can get in cheaper.

  • Reply to

    Isn't MO a bit overextended here?

    by archmage10101 Jun 19, 2014 1:32 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 19, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    I would normally say yes but the "pending merger" has driven up pps across the sector, an anomaly. Check the P/E's of LO + RAI compared to MO and you get a different picture. Bonnie says LO buy out at 80!

  • mario_themario mario_themario Jun 13, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    Paying a divvy at this stage is irresponsible. They need to maintain sufficient funds to continue to support their pipe and to wait until B starts generating enough cash flow to sustain the company. The shorts would not be affected with a token divvy. They would just have to pay that amount for each share short, aka, .05 divvy, 1000 shares short, $50 to the broker. They are better off status quo + hopefully not have to go for another secondary to support the company.

  • Reply to

    Jack

    by sharonconk Jun 11, 2014 5:34 PM
    mario_themario mario_themario Jun 11, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    I agree but he should have given some light on WHEN we'll expect to see the B/Phen data. Also liked that they mentioned Glaxo as a potential suitor and followed up with its a buy at these levels. Adam Fartstain, the expert in biotech, will come out with a hit piece soon after he blew the OREX call.
    He also said Eisai has said nothing about a buyout. Overall a positive news bite for longs.

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